In the Teeth of the Blizzard

On Thursday, I posted a message relating to the El Nino effect taking storms out to sea south of Connecticut. That is happening right now as I write this. And it looks as if central Connecticut won't see any snow at all.

This weekend, my wife and I are visiting with my daughter, son-in-law and our 8-month old granddaughter. That's usually a great thing, and we always have fun with her. However, I should add that they live in Baltimore, and that's where I'm blogging from today--in the very center of the Blizzard of 2010. We arrived here yesterday on the last Southwest Airlines flight from Hartford to Baltimore before the remainder of their schedule was cancelled. The snow started around 3 PM and really picked up overnight. As of 11:45 AM today, Baltimore Airport has recorded 26.5 inches of snow, and it is still snowing heavily. It is very likely that the all-time record for a single snowstorm in Baltimore is 28.2 inches, and that will likely be broken.

While we are all safely indoors, the street that we are on is too narrow for a plow to get through, so we may be snowed in here for days. I hope not, but it's truly amazing to be a part of meteorological history.

Another Near Miss. What Did You Expect from El Nino?

For the second time this week, a major winter storm is, by and large, going to miss central Connecticut. Earlier in the week, a storm system moved out to sea to our south, dusting Connecticut with a little snow, but depositing some 4-5 inches in the D.C-Baltimore area (which, for them, is a lot of snow).

Then forecasters started talking up another storm, supposed to affect our weather by Friday and into the weekend. The computer models were all over the place, some taking the system close enough to Connecticut to give us a decent snowfall (what broadcasters like to call a "plowable" storm). Other models were taking a more southerly track. As the week progressed, the models seemed to zero in on the more southerly track, once again taking the bulk of the snow through the Mid-Atlantic states, and missing Connecticut. In fact, as I write this, it appears that the Baltimore-Washington region is looking at the potential for 12-20 inches of the white stuff from this latest storm. So why are all these storms missing the northeast?

Simply put, there is a strong El Nino ocean current in the Pacific Ocean. When this occurs, the upper level jet stream over North America splits into a northern branch and a southern branch; and the southern branch is usually quite strong. The strong southern branch of the jet stream is responsible for all the rain in southern California, as well as the stormy weather that south Florida has seen this winter. It also tends to steer winter storms out to our south.

So while we still have plenty of cold air to deal with, we've been fortunate (sorry, all you skiers and snowboarders) that there hasn't been that much snow so far. And, for good measure, the storm that was being talked up for Tuesday and Wednesday is now also looking to be a bust, going south once again. This time you CAN blame it all on El Nino.

Hi Ho, Hi Ho...

It's back to work we go.

After a semester break that began way back on December 19th, the Spring semester gets under way on Monday, January 25th. That's just too long a break in my book. There doesn't seem to be a good reason why classes could not have started up last Tuesday (the day after Martin Luther King Day).

I know that some students and faculty like the long winter break, but for me, I've had enough days at home, and am more than ready to return to the classroom, and the weather lab. This semester, I'm teaching the upper division Weather Analysis & Forecasting class. This is one of my favorites, as the students get a real taste for the theory and practice of weather forecasting. This includes a daily statistical weather forecasting competition, which requires students to forecast the high and low temperatures for the next day, as well as the actual amount of precipitation expected. Scores are kept, rankings are posted, and students who beat me over the course of the semester get a free lunch.

I don't get to forecast weather that much over the course of a normal semester, but this class keeps me sharp, as the students always give me a run for my money. I've given away more than my fair share of free lunches over the years and I expect this semester will be no exception.

Looks like the January Thaw will be coming to an end later this week, as temperatures take a tumble by week's end. The mild weather of the past week has made us forget that the worst of winter, climatologically speaking, is still ahead of us. February and March are normally the snowiest two months of the year, so if you think that there's no more snow to be had, think again. The best is yet to come.

What's the Difference? Happy Whatever to Everyone!

There are those for whom this time of year brings conflict. Should we not say "Merry Christmas" to others, for fear we might offend if they do not celebrate that holiday? Have we become so paranoid that we avoid anything more generic than "Happy Holidays," or "Season's Greetings?"

We are all children of the same planet. We should celebrate our differences, because when we bring them all together, they make us stronger. Christians, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Baha'is, and any others I surely have forgotten are all human beings. That makes us all ONE family.

In that vein, I wish you all a very happy holiday season. It's much easier to say that, than to conspicuously leave anyone out. Try to stay safe, don't drink and drive, fasten that safety belt, and we'll all survive the winter break and start all over again in 2010.

Happy New Year! Let's hope that the year 2010 will bring Peace on Earth, and goodwill to all humankind.

Summer in December--Then Winter Again

Just when you thought that winter was around the corner, summer popped in for a brief farewell visit. Today on the CCSU campus, the mercury topped out at 66.6 degrees (isn't that the "devil" number, by the way?). After last night's rain and wind, the balmy temperatures this afternoon were a very pleasant change, allowing a quick cleanup of any downed tree branches. Things would have been much worse had their still been leaves on those branches. As it is, there aren't too many branches down as far as I can tell.

Now the clouds have returned and temperatures are poised to start dropping back to winter-like levels over the next 48 hours. As I write this, it's still 60 degrees on campus, but another storm is moving up the coast, and it might brush us with a few flurries on Saturday. By then the mercury will have a hard time reaching the 35-39 degree mark. One thing you can say about New England weather--it's never boring!

Just Me and the Dog

In a little while, I'll be driving my BW to the airport. She is off to attend the annual convention of the American Speech, Language and Hearing Association (ASHA) in New Orleans. She'll be presenting three papers at the convention.

The ASHA convention is huge, bringing together more than 10,000 speech-language pathologists, audiologists, researchers and professors under one roof. As a comparison, my own American Meteorological Society annual meeting (which will be in Atlanta in January) usually only attracts around 2500 attendees. The "speechies," as I like to call them, will literally be taking over The Big Easy for the next four days.

In years past, I have often followed my wife to the convention city for the weekend, giving us a little bit of a short pre-Thanksgiving getaway. Not this year, however. Airfares from Hartford to New Orleans have been nothing short of outrageous, averaging around $750-800 round trip. Only a lunatic (or someone on a full expense account) would spend that kind of money for a couple of days away.

So it's basically Sammy (our dog) and I who will be holding down the fort here in Connecticut until my wife gets back. I hope she likes jambalya and crawfish!!

In the House for #27

I'm still recovering from being in Yankee Stadium Wednesday night when the Yankees secured their 27th World Series title. The experience of watching your team win a championship, while surrounded by strangers who, at once, became good friends is something very special.

I didn't allow myself to really believe that they were going to win until the 8th inning. When Mariano Rivera, the greatest relief pitcher in the history of baseball, secured the final out of that inning, leaving the Yankees just three outs away, I finally felt that victory was at hand. But nothing I've ever done could have prepared me for the raw outpouring of shared exuberance that accompanied the final out (which I dutifully recorded on my iPhone). There were hugs, high-fives, cheers and even a few tears at the conclusion of the game. The fans around me had become brothers (and sisters)-in-arms. The feeling of joy and excitement at that moment is one that still, even three days later, is very difficult to describe.

The man sitting in front of me had come to the game with his nine-year old son. As the young boy soaked in the celebration going on all around him, I leaned down to him and said, "this is a moment you'll remember for the rest of your life." I envied him somewhat. After all, it took me 57 years to be "in the house" when the Yankees won the World Series.

Going to Game 6

Right after my classes end today, I'll be heading down to Yankee Stadium to watch my beloved N.Y. Yankees try to close out the 2009 World Series. I have never been to a potential World Series clincher (I've been to two World Series games before, but not clinchers) so I'm hoping the boys can put an end to it tonight.

Weather should not be a factor for the game tonight. Showers in western and central Pennsylvania are slowly moving east, and should not arrive in the New York area until at least 11 PM or midnight at the earliest. Depending on how quickly they move out tomorrow, they could threaten the start of a potential Game 7, but I don't think that game, if needed, would be postponed.

I'll be dressed for the chilly weather. It should be in the mid-40s at game time, but dropping into the upper 30's by the time the game is over. However, with no real windy conditions to speak of, it won't be nearly as uncomfortable as it was at ALCS Game 2. Here's hoping the Yankees send all their fans home happy tonight.

Bad Forecast Turns Out Good for Yankees

As someone who had a ticket to last night's ALCS Game 2 at Yankee Stadium, naturally, I was following the weather all day long before leaving for New York at 5 PM. Needless to say, making the trip to New York (by car and train) was a leap of faith, in light of the gloom and doom weather forecasts issued by the National Weather Service all day long.

The NWS insisted that it was going to rain all afternoon and deep into the night in New York. The early morning forecast called for rain developing after noon (80% probability). For Saturday night, the forecast called for a 100% probability of rain. Didn't sound too good for getting the game played, considering the 7:57 PM start time.

But, looking at radar through the afternoon, it seemed fairly obvious that the storm system moving up the coast was a) not developing quite as expected, and b) was having a hard time dislodging the high pressure system that had moved over the northeast early in the day. It was mostly sunny through the morning hours in Connecticut, which should have been the first sign that the computer models were not handling the storm system particularly well. In fact, by 4 PM, the "forecast radar" map from The Weather Channel indicated that rain would not arrive in the Bronx until at least midnight. Nevertheless, the NWS never updated that unfortunate late morning forecast. Judging by the number of empty seats at the Stadium last night, a lot of people decided to stay home, rather than risk spending a lot of money to get to the Stadium and risking a long rain delay or a rainout.

There's a reason why "nowcasting" is often a good thing. The NWS policy of only updating their forecast products in the late morning and early evening certainly did the public a disservice yesterday. By the way, the rain did not actually begin until 11:06 PM, and it was never hard enough to stop play.

Summer is Almost Over

As we approach the beginning of Autumn (Sept. 22nd at 5:18 PM EDT) we can look back on this past summer as one of extremes. The summer began on a cool and rainy note. There seemed to be a lot of rainy days, and the months of June and July did not feature a single day at Bradley International Airport where the mercury reached the 90 degree mark.

August saw a turnaround that featured more in the way of summer-like weather. Here on campus, we recorded eight days of temperatures 90 degrees or hotter, with a bona fide heat wave from August 15th to August 21st (seven days in a row of 90 or hotter). And, of course, as the days got hotter, so did the New York Yankees, owners of the best record in Major League Baseball since the All-Star break in mid-July.

The last week has seen a string of nice days interspersed with a day of rain here and there. Today will see increasing clouds, and rain will be moving into the area for Wednesday and into the latter part of the week. It's almost as if the weather gods are crying that summer is finally coming to an end.

Danny Disappoints, Yankees Do Not

So, all the excitement (from a meteorological perspective) about a tropical storm affecting southern New England today was premature, as Tropical Storm Danny never really got its act together. The center of circulation off the coast of Florida never seemed to coincide with the area of thunderstorms that spawned it, and Danny never lived up to expectations. It was, at best, a disorganized mess that just barely maintained tropical storm strength, and passed east of New England earlier today, spreading only some heavy rain over eastern sections, while never really producing any dangerous conditions along the Connecticut shoreline.

Danny's path and failure to organize itself were good news for Yankee fans, as conditions at Yankee Stadium earlier today were actually just fine for today's game against the Chicago White Sox. The Yankee offense, unlike Danny, did not disappoint, putting 10 runs on the board, while the defense sparkled, and the White Sox could only manage a single hit off Yankee pitching. The Stadium was not nearly full, as many fans, probably expecting a washout, decided not to make the trip to the Bronx. I was there, however, and it was really a great game (if you're a Yankee fan). The sun even tried to make an appearance late in the game. Here in Connecticut, however, it was rain and drizzle through most of the day. The next couple of days should be much nicer.

Of Heat Waves and Tropical Storms

After getting through all of June and July without a single day with temperatures of 90 degrees or higher, the month of August has featured much more summerlike weather. So far, there have been nine days at Bradley International Airport when the mercury has topped out at 90 or higher, including a seven day long heat wave from August 15th to the 21st. Today should be the final hot, humid day for a while, as a cold front will push through the region this evening, bringing much cooler Canadian air into southern New England for the next few days.

If you have outdoor plans for the weekend, things may go downhill very quickly on Friday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Danny, located east of the Bahamas this morning. The current forecast track brings Danny just east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina by early Saturday, and strengthens the storm to a Category 1 hurricane. It will then race up the eastern seaboard, perhaps reaching the Bay of Fundy (still as a hurricane) in Nova Scotia by Sunday morning. If this track holds up, heavy rain will be falling throughout southern New England by late Friday night, and will continue through most of Saturday. Also, wind speeds may exceed 40 mph, with higher gusts, especially along coastal sections of Massachusetts and Maine. This could be the first significant tropical weather system to affect the northeast in a long time. We'll be watching it as it develops.

I kick you, you kick me.

Two games done in this weekend's Fenway Park face-off between my beloved Yankees and the evil Boston Red Sox. On Friday night, the Yankees pounded the Sox and recorded a 20-11 victory. On Saturday afternoon, the Sox returned the favor with a 14-1 embarrassment of the Bronx Bombers. Sunday night sees the rubber game. If the Yankees win, they leave Boston with a 7 1/2 game lead. If Boston wins, the lead is cut to 5 1/2 games.

It must have been tough for both teams to play these first two games in such humid weather conditions. Both games featured lots of home runs, which is to be expected when the humidity level is high. Contrary to popular baseball mythology, humid air is not "heavy," and does not weigh the baseball down. In fact, because water molecules are lighter than air molecules, the overall density of humid air is actually less than that of dry air at the same temperature. So it's logical to expect fly balls to carry further on humid days, and that seems to be the case for the first two games.

Temperatures are expected to cool down this week as a Canadian air mass moves into the region. This should make for some nice baseball weather as the Yankees return home from their ten-game road trip after finishing up at Fenway Park. Anyone at Yankee Stadium next Saturday--come by Section 305 and say hello.

Of Hurricanes and El Nino

Sure has been a long time since my last blog post. The end of the Spring Semester and the quick turnaround to Summer Session have occupied most of my time (along with the arrival of our first granddaughter in June).

So now that Summer Session is entering its final week, I can look ahead at some upcoming vacation time and begin to think about this year's hurricane season. The National Weather Service has yet to publish its final estimate of what the 2009 hurricane season will be like (that should be out during the first few days of August). But it seems that the Atlantic may be quieter this year than in the past few. There is a strong El Nino developing along the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, and that is expected to continue through the upcoming winter. El Nino is an unusually warm water current that flows eastward along the equatorial Pacific towards the South American coast. When it develops (usually every 3-4 years, but unpredictably so), the Pacific becomes much warmer than normal, while the Atlantic and Caribbean remain cooler than normal. This tends to sharply decrease the number and strength of tropical storms and hurricanes that form in the Atlantic from June through October. So I expect that the forecast will call for fewer Atlantic/Caribbean storms than in the last few years.

That's certainly good news for the residents of Florida and the Gulf Coast, as they have been pounded since 2004 with one tropical system after another. In 2004, Florida experienced four major hurricanes (Charlie, Helen, Ivan and Jeanne). In 2005, they were hit with Wilma (which earlier had been the strongest hurricane in Atlantic/Caribbean history), while the Gulf states had to deal with Katrina and Rita. Last year, Gustav and Ike did their damage from New Orleans to Galveston and Houston.

Hopefully, the developing El Nino will lessen the activity in the Atlantic and give all those folks a breather, along with all those others who have vacation plans along the North and South Carolina coasts. Nothing worse than dragging all that stuff down south, then having to evacuate in the face of an approaching storm.

I guess the only thing left to wonder about is what Jim Cantore and Stephanie Abrams of The Weather Channel will do with themselves if there are no hurricanes to stand in the middle of.

Summer Session Online at CCSU

For the second summer in a row, I'm teaching a course on severe and hazardous weather that is being offered only online. I find online courses to be a mixed blessing for both me and the students in the course.

For me, the fact that I don't have to maintain a presence on campus every day is a nice change of pace. I spend much of the day online, waiting for students to ask questions, grading assignments as they are submitted, and moderating chat rooms where students can interact with me and each other. Even though I never see any of these students face-to-face, I actually feel that I get to know them better than most students in my larger in-class courses. That's the part I like.

What I don't like, however, is, in fact, the lack of face-to-face contact. I pride myself on my ability to get difficult concepts across to students through use of the board (blackboard or whiteboard). That aspect of teaching doesn't exist in an online course. I rely on the students to keep up with, and learn and understand the material presented to them online, but I know that for some, it just doesn't happen.

Online courses are moneymakers for the university, as there are little or no overhead costs involved (no classroom lights to keep on, no air conditioned rooms to keep cool, etc.). But they are not for everyone, and students often don't realize that until they are in over their heads.

Auto Updates? Thanks, but no thanks.

Recently, I've been having problems with my computers at home. I have a somewhat unique situation in that my desktop computer (now over four years old) runs Windows XP and is still working well for me. My notebook computer came with Windows Vista Home Edition, and, while it took me awhile to adjust to the differences, it also works well, and (contrary to what those smug Mac folks would have you believe) hardly ever crashes or malfunctions. I have a home wireless network, and both computers speak to one another with never a harsh word between the two of them.

However, I've always been one of those types who wants to have the latest updates for every piece of software that I have. So I usually set my computer to automatically download and install these updates (for XP, Vista, Firefox, IE, etc.). Most of the time, they install with no problems and often provide improved functionality. Recently, however, that hasn't been the case.

I tried to install the Service Pack 3 update to Windows XP. It didn't work. In fact, I got a message telling me that the update installation failed. So I went back to where I was, and now I get continuously reminded that I need to update to Service Pack 3.

Then I installed an update to Windows Vista on my notebook. No problem with the installation, but when I restarted the computer, it refused to recognize the CD/DVD drive. In fact, it told me I didn't have one. I restored the system to its old, non-updated state, but still no CD/DVD drive. Luckily, I found a solution on Google, and all is well. But I won't run the update again, that's for sure.

Finally, there's Firefox 3.0.10. It updated itself automatically then proceeded to crash my computers (both of them) over and over again. I finally uninstalled it, and cycled back to a much earlier version of Firefox that works fine. And I no longer get automatic updates for it.

Newer isn't always better.

Mirror Images

People who have a hard time understanding how weather moves across the country from west to east should only look at east coast vs. west coast weather this week and weekend.  Last week and into early this week, the western U.S., particularly in California, was in the grip of an early spring heat wave.  Temperatures in Los Angeles were in the upper 80's, which is unusually warm for this time of year.  At the same time, here in Connecticut, we were looking at temperatures in the 50's for most of the early part of the week.

The upcoming weekend promises a reverse of those conditions.  Here in Connecticut, record-high temperatures are possible, as the mercury on both Saturday and Sunday will rise into the upper 80's.  Only those regions near the coastal waters will escape the extreme heat, as cool water temperatures act to keep temperatures lower as a sea breeze develops both days.  On the left coast, however, things will swing back to a slightly below normal condition, as temperatures in southern California will return to the mid to upper 60's.

The hot weather will not help firefighters in South Carolina who are fighting a major wildfire in the North Myrtle Beach area.  Conditions have been very dry, and some of the expensive homes and golf courses around Myrtle Beach have been threatened.  At least 69 homes have been destroyed as of this writing, and more are under the gun.

Baseball's Back...Spring, Not Quite

What a cold Easter weekend it's been here in Connecticut. Both yesterday and today featured temperatures that did not make it out of the 40's. Hard to believe that the calendar says mid-April, and we're one week into the 2009 baseball season. At least there's hope for the upcoming week that we'll see temperatures into the 60's as we move into mid-week.

The Yankees will officially open their new Stadium on Thursday, and I'd love to go, but I can't, for two reasons. First (and most importantly) I have classes to teach. Second, I don't have a ticket, and at this point, I can't afford one. There are still tickets to be had from the official Ticketmaster website. Face value......$2625.00!!! Obviously not an option. And I've seen nothing on StubHub (MLB's official ticket resale site) for less than $225. I'll just have to record the game, and watch it when I get home from work. At least the weather should cooperate for the opener, with sunny skies and temperatures in the 60's. A nice day for baseball. In fact, any day they can play is a nice day for baseball.

Out Like a Lamb

March lives up to its reputation here in Connecticut.  In like a lion, out like a lamb.  That couldn't be more true than it's been this month.  On March 3rd, we had the coldest  day of the month, with a high temperature of only 22 degrees F here in New Britain.  Today, on the last day of March, we've seen the mercury top out at a balmy 59 degrees.   At Bradley International Aiport, almost 8 inches of snow fell on March 2nd.  There was no more snow for the rest of the month, even though March is climatologically the second snowiest month of the year.

That's not to imply that there won't be any more winter weather here in New England.  There are plenty of reports of accumulating snow in past years, even into the early part of May.  But as the length of daylight grows longer, and the intensity of the sunlight grows stronger, winter is finally losing the battle as springtime weather takes over.

Only 6 more days till the Yankees open the 2009 regular season in Baltimore.  I can't wait!

What a Turnaround!

Just eight days ago, in my last post, I talked about the impending 8-12 inch snowstorm that had just begun around Connecticut.  In fact, much of the state got exactly that amount of snow, with some regions getting upwards of 14 inches of new snow.  And this, just after all the winter's snow cover had finally melted.

Now, little more than a week later, all of that snow is gone.  With the past weekend's 60+ degree weather on both Saturday and Sunday, it has all melted away.  Even after living in New England for over 30 years, I am still amazed by how quickly the weather can change around here.