Good morning! Today is Groundhog Day, as most of you already know. The legend of the weatherwise woodchuck dates back to the early 1840's in Morgantown, PA. According to the story, when the groundhog comes out of its burrow on Candelmas Day (February 2nd), if it sees its shadow, then it will duck back underground, and winter will continue for six more weeks. If it's cloudy, and there's no shadow, then the groundhog will stay out, and Spring will arrive early.
The most famous of all groundhogs is, of course, Punxsutawney Phil, made even more famous by the 1993 Bill Murray film, "Groundhog Day!" There are plenty of other local groundhogs around the country that make similar predictions. Groundhog Day fans claim an accuracy rate of up to 90%, but the National Climatic Data Center, along with a study of 13 cities done in Canada, both agree that the accuracy rate is closer to 39%.
So, will Winter end early this year? Probably not, if you go by the groundhog prediction, as it is sunny this morning across the northeast, so Phil will almost assuredly see his shadow. So even if the weather remains winterlike for the next few weeks, we can at least enjoy the 45-50 degree temperatures that are on tap for today in Connecticut.
Oh, and one more thing....GO BIG BLUE!!!
Saturday, February 2, 2008
Friday, February 1, 2008
What an Unwinterlike Winter in Connecticut
As I post this, it's raining heavily here in central Connecticut. We've had over 25 inches of snow so far this winter, but most of that snow fell in the early days of December along with one storm in January that was forecast to bring a foot or so, but only produced around six inches. There won't be much snow left on the ground after today, as the rain is washing most of what has been there away.
It's been an unusual winter in that, while the overall weather pattern has been stormy, the general storm track has been to our west. Only a few strong secondary storms have formed off the eastern seaboard, and, for the most part, they've been too far south or east to bring us the heavy snow. Outlooks for next few weeks seem to continue the pattern of strong storm systems moving northeast, but west of Connecticut, leaving us on the warm side, and bringing lots of rain, instead of lots of snow.
But don't forget that the atmosphere has a way of balancing things out. While we've been getting lots of rain around here, locations in the Midwest, such as Chicago have been seeing a lot of snow over the past few weeks. As I'm not a skier, I say, "let them keep it."
It's been an unusual winter in that, while the overall weather pattern has been stormy, the general storm track has been to our west. Only a few strong secondary storms have formed off the eastern seaboard, and, for the most part, they've been too far south or east to bring us the heavy snow. Outlooks for next few weeks seem to continue the pattern of strong storm systems moving northeast, but west of Connecticut, leaving us on the warm side, and bringing lots of rain, instead of lots of snow.
But don't forget that the atmosphere has a way of balancing things out. While we've been getting lots of rain around here, locations in the Midwest, such as Chicago have been seeing a lot of snow over the past few weeks. As I'm not a skier, I say, "let them keep it."
A Book Worth Reading
I just finished reading "Storm World," by Chris Mooney (Harcourt, Inc, 2007). It's a look into the raging debate on the potential effect of global warming on hurricane intensity. I found it particularly interesting, as I know many of the main characters in the book, and have had the opportunity to hear them speak at conferences and symposia.
Mooney begins by looking at the last few hurricane seasons, and how hurricane research has become far more popular among meteorologists since the 2005 season, which featured Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. He explores the beginnings of the idea that a warmer ocean would produce stronger hurricanes, and he spends a lot of time with Dr. Bill Gray, of Colorado State University, one of the country's foremost hurricane forecasters, and a global warming skeptic.
He also spends a great deal of time looking into the politics behind NOAA's official position that hurricane intensity increases are the result of a natural climatic cycle (the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) rather than any global warming contribution.
At first, it's hard to tell which side of the climate argument Mooney is on, but by book's end, he makes it clear that he is on the side of researchers such as Kerry Emanuel of MIT, and Kevin Trenberth of NCAR, who have argued that climate models indicate that a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could lead to a half-category increase (on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale) in hurricane strength.
I must admit that Mooney makes convincing arguments for the work of Emanuel, Trenberth and others, and presents them with very little bias. If you are wavering on whether global warming might be linked to weather events now and in the future, I suggest you give this book a read.
Mooney begins by looking at the last few hurricane seasons, and how hurricane research has become far more popular among meteorologists since the 2005 season, which featured Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. He explores the beginnings of the idea that a warmer ocean would produce stronger hurricanes, and he spends a lot of time with Dr. Bill Gray, of Colorado State University, one of the country's foremost hurricane forecasters, and a global warming skeptic.
He also spends a great deal of time looking into the politics behind NOAA's official position that hurricane intensity increases are the result of a natural climatic cycle (the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) rather than any global warming contribution.
At first, it's hard to tell which side of the climate argument Mooney is on, but by book's end, he makes it clear that he is on the side of researchers such as Kerry Emanuel of MIT, and Kevin Trenberth of NCAR, who have argued that climate models indicate that a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could lead to a half-category increase (on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale) in hurricane strength.
I must admit that Mooney makes convincing arguments for the work of Emanuel, Trenberth and others, and presents them with very little bias. If you are wavering on whether global warming might be linked to weather events now and in the future, I suggest you give this book a read.
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