Two weeks ago, in the face of the arrival of Hurricane Gustav, New Orleans officials ordered a mandatory evacuation, and told residents that if they did not leave, they were "on their own." Many residents complied and the city was a virtual ghost town by the time Gustav brushed past. Damage was nothing like that from Katrina, and many residents, upon returning, said the evacuation was unnecessary, and they would not leave again.
Obviously, those words were in the minds of many residents of the Galveston Bay area as Hurricane Ike approached the region last Saturday morning. By noon, some beachfront communities were completely cut off, as water levels had already risen past nine feet, submerging the only access roads. As it turns out, over 140,000 area residents did not evacuate, either choosing to ignore the advice of the National Weather Service, or being unable to leave for whatever reasons. The death toll from Ike has already topped 40 in Texas, with over 2000 having been rescued from their flooded or destroyed homes. Many felt the evacuation order was unnecessary and simply ignored it. Some undoubtedly lost their lives. Many more lost their homes. In the wake of the storm, many who stayed were quoted as saying, "next time, I'll leave," --the exact opposite of the reaction to Gustav in New Orleans.
The US Geological Survey has posted some "Before" and "After" photos of the Bolivar Peninsula (a particularly hard-hit area just east of Galveston). Almost all of the beachfront or near-beachfront homes here are completely gone, either blown or washed away by Ike's fury. Click here to see what's left.
How do we fight "Cry Wolf" Syndrome in the future? There are no clear answers. We live in a country where people are free to be as stupid as they like. But faced with an approaching catastrophe, we should think about choosing what former Hurricane Center Director Neil Frank used to call "the path of least regret."
