Lots of Rain, Lots of Snow

Winter may be winding down, but don't tell that to the folks in central Ohio this afternoon. Many of them, in places such as Cincinnati and Columbus, are digging out from over 20 inches of snowfall yesterday. They were, unfortunately, on the cold side of this latest winter storm system that is now moving into the Gulf of Maine. With northerly winds and temperatures below freezing, the moisture that fell on the western side of the low pressure center was all in the form of snow.

Here in Connecticut and along the eastern seaboard, we were on the milder, eastern side of the storm, with southerly winds bringing mild air up from the south. As a result, all the precipitation that fell here yesterday was in the form of rain, and we had plenty of it. Bradley Airport officially checked in with 1.68 inches of rain, but some locations in the state received up to three inches of rainfall. On top of rain we had earlier in the week, and the fact that much of the ground in Connecticut is still frozen, most of that water has drained into rivers and streams, which are now going over their banks. Flood warnings are in effect for many central and northern Connecticut towns through Monday.

And just to make the skiers feel even worse, if this storm had been all snow instead of all rain, we would be digging out from 15-20 inches of the white stuff. I've had lots of people tell me that this has been a relatively snow-free winter in Connecticut. While that may be the feeling among many, that actually hasn't been the case. As of today, Bradley International Airport has had 47. 5 inches of snow so far this season. That's 8.2 inches more than normal for the winter thus far, and is almost four times as much snow as we had at this time a year ago. It may not be over yet. We've had a number of significant snowstorms in early April in years past, so I wouldn't put the snow shovels away just yet.

Spring is Finally Here

The temperature outside this evening is in the mid-20s. There's still about 2 inches of snow in parts of my backyard. So how can I say that spring is here, especially when the calendar says that it doesn't officially begin until 1:48 AM EDT on March 20th? That's easy. The late Bart Giamatti, former President of Yale University wrote, in 1977,

"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone."
-Source: The Green Fields of the Mind (Yale Alumni Magazine, November 1977)

Today saw the first telecasts of Spring Training baseball games here in Connecticut. Both the Boston Red Sox, and my own beloved New York Yankees played exhibition games today that were shown live on local TV. For me, that represents the true end of winter, and the calendar be damned

In 1984, Washington Post columnist Thomas Boswell wrote that "time begins on Opening Day." For the Yankees, that's just 29 days from today.

Meyer's Law

As a graduate student in the Atmospheric Sciences at SUNY Albany, we were taught many "rules of thumb" that had been developed over the years. Two that come to mind are "Henry's Rule" and "Rosenbloom's Law," both of which have to do with the movement of low pressure systems. Most of my NWS forecaster colleagues are well aware of these "laws."

However, there is one law that almost no one knows. It's called "Meyer's Law." It was actually developed by a contemporary of mine when I was in Albany. Mike Meyer (no relation to the guy who played Dr. Evil in the Austin Powers films) was an undergrad in the Meteorology program while I was a grad student. One day, he came to me and said that he had developed a rule that seemed to work well. He said that it seemed to him, that after a significant snowstorm, there wouldn't be another one until most, if not all, of the snow from the first storm had melted. Silly as it seems, over the years, Meyer's Law seems to work more often than not (although I admit there is no scientific proof that this is, in fact, the case).

So now that all the snow on the ground in Connecticut has melted, Meyer's Law says it's time for another snowstorm. And, as I write this entry, it's snowing outside, and we're expecting 4-8 inches of new snow by late tonight. Of course, lots of people think that by the time we get to late February, the chances of snow are decreasing. In fact, February and March have traditionally been the two snowiest months of the year in Connecticut. Most of the memorable blizzards of years past have occurred in February and March.

So while you're shoveling your walkway, or plowing out the driveway later today or tomorrow morning, remember that, according to Meyer's Law, there won't be another snowstorm until the snow from this one has melted away.

Snow and Ice and Water Everywhere

As I write this, at 4:30 PM, we continue to get heavy rain across much of the state. Last night saw some 3 inches of snow fall in the Hartford area, followed by an extensive period of freezing rain, followed by a day of heavy rain that isn't over yet. The NWS says we've already had between 2 and 3 inches of rainfall today. Our rain gauge here on campus (which is not heated) has 1.60 inches of rain as of this moment, and there is still likely some snow and ice on the bucket which hasn't yet melted and flowed in.

Here in our building, on the Fifth floor, water is dripping through the ceilings from the roof above. Our copy/fax machine room is out of commission, as we've had to move both machines out of the way of dripping water. I won't be surprised to hear about some flat roofs in Connecticut giving way under the combined weight of all that snow, ice and rain.

On top of all that, temperatures tonight should drop below freezing, and that means a lot of puddles and ponded water is going to freeze up before morning. Should make for an adventurous morning commute tomorrow on many interior Connecticut roadways. Drive carefully, everyone.

Just one more thing. It looks like we're in for another heavy rain storm late Saturday and into Sunday. And this cold, stormy pattern shows no sign of letting up for at least the next week or so.

Don't Let the Sunshine Fool You

The sun is shining in Connecticut this morning, but gloom and doom dominate the forecast. And there's no need to overhype the storm that's on its way. Snow should break out across the state during the late afternoon hours, and, with plenty of cold air embedded in the lower atmosphere, it will take a while to change the snow over to an even messier mix of sleet and freezing rain overnight.

The evening rush won't be that bad, as there won't be that much snow on the ground yet, but tomorrow morning's commute will be tough for those of us not along the immediate shoreline. Freezing rain will persist for a while before temperatures finally push up above freezing, and a steady, often heavy rain falls tomorrow. With a few inches of snow, then ice, then rain, the possibility of urban and poor drainage flooding is very real.

And yet, that sunshine is still right there outside my window. I've never seen such changeable weather anywhere else, except maybe in those classic Warner Bros. cartoons. I'm sure some of you know what I'm talking about.

The flu has arrived at my house

It's flu season around much of the United States. As I was watching CNN's coverage of presidential primaries and caucuses this afternoon, a weather cut-in noted that only Florida and Maine have managed to avoid widespread outbreaks of the flu so far this year. The report also noted that this year's flu vaccine is only effective against two of the three strains seen in the U.S. this season. Needless to say, neither my wife nor myself got a flu shot this year, and, of course, my wife seems to have come down with the dreaded influenza virus. Aches, pains, congestion and a 103 fever have thrown her for a loop. And unless I'm unusually lucky, I'll probably come down with it sooner rather than later (something to look forward to).

It would be interesting to see how many of the flu cases being reported are among people who DID take the flu shot this year. In any event, we are stuck indoors on this cold and snowy evening, and, with temperatures struggling to reach the low 30s Sunday and Monday, it's probably just as well.

Is that the Sun I see?

It seems as if we haven't seen any sunshine for at least the last five days or so. It's been one storm system after another, passing across Connecticut bringing us rain, sleet, freezing rain--what The Weather Channel likes to call a "wintry mix."

We may actually get a short-lived break from the dreary weather on Friday afternoon. There might be a bit of sunshine, and clear skies on Friday night before another round of clouds and wintry precipitation moves in for later Saturday and into a bit of Sunday as well. Climatologically speaking, we should now be coming out of the depths of winter as the days grow longer and the temperatures begin their slow climb. But, as I've pointed out before, there's still plenty of winter to get through before we can dream of days on the beach.

The biggest question plaguing us these days, however, is this...who's not telling the truth, Roger Clemens, or his former trainer, Brian McNamee? We report, you decide. Meanwhile, there's just seven days until Spring Training begins. Now for me, that's when winter really ends.

Of Winter Weather and Sweeps Month

February, for those of you who are unfamiliar with the workings of TV ratings, is sweeps month. Sweeps periods occur in February, May and November of each year. During those months, national networks, as well as local TV stations closely monitor viewership to determine which programs (and local newscasts) people are watching. From that data, the networks determine which shows get renewed or cancelled, and the local stations determine how much they can charge for advertising revenue, based on viewership.

Local TV stations often put interesting news stories or features on during sweeps months, which they promote during prime time programming. You may notice a trend toward stories that have a "must watch" theme. And, just in time for the weather departments, winter is poised to return to the region. That means that local weathercasters around the northeast will promote long range forecasts of potential winter weather with a bit more urgency.

The latest round of National Weather Service computer forecasts is indicating that a significant blast of Arctic air will be moving into the region by Sunday, and should stick around for a few days. That means that daytime temperatures will likely only reach the mid-20's on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, with overnight lows in the upper single digits or low 10's. On top of all that, the longer range forecasts are pointing to a potential winter storm for the 19th of the month. Bear in mind, however, that forecasts that far in advance often change drastically by the time that day actually rolls around, so take those inevitable gloom and doom forecasts with a healthy grain of salt for the time being.

Nobody's Perfect

What a remarkable finish to last night's Superbowl XLII (and when are we going to stop numbering these Superbowls? I mean, would anyone actually be able to remember who won World Series LXVIII if baseball were using the same idiotic numbering scheme?) As a born and raised New Yorker, I couldn't be happier for the Giants this morning, especially after all those predictions of a 41-17 Patriots blowout. Congratulations to Big Blue this morning.

I wish we could catch a weather break, but this doesn't look like the week to get it. The stormy weather pattern looks like it will persist through much of this week. We might see some sunshine on Thursday, but for the most part, lots of clouds and precipitation, and most of it appears as if it will be rain rather than snow. And for those of you who think that winter might be over by now, remember that February and March are, climatologically speaking, the two snowiest months of the year.

Groundhog Day!!

Good morning! Today is Groundhog Day, as most of you already know. The legend of the weatherwise woodchuck dates back to the early 1840's in Morgantown, PA. According to the story, when the groundhog comes out of its burrow on Candelmas Day (February 2nd), if it sees its shadow, then it will duck back underground, and winter will continue for six more weeks. If it's cloudy, and there's no shadow, then the groundhog will stay out, and Spring will arrive early.

The most famous of all groundhogs is, of course, Punxsutawney Phil, made even more famous by the 1993 Bill Murray film, "Groundhog Day!" There are plenty of other local groundhogs around the country that make similar predictions. Groundhog Day fans claim an accuracy rate of up to 90%, but the National Climatic Data Center, along with a study of 13 cities done in Canada, both agree that the accuracy rate is closer to 39%.

So, will Winter end early this year? Probably not, if you go by the groundhog prediction, as it is sunny this morning across the northeast, so Phil will almost assuredly see his shadow. So even if the weather remains winterlike for the next few weeks, we can at least enjoy the 45-50 degree temperatures that are on tap for today in Connecticut.

Oh, and one more thing....GO BIG BLUE!!!

What an Unwinterlike Winter in Connecticut

As I post this, it's raining heavily here in central Connecticut. We've had over 25 inches of snow so far this winter, but most of that snow fell in the early days of December along with one storm in January that was forecast to bring a foot or so, but only produced around six inches. There won't be much snow left on the ground after today, as the rain is washing most of what has been there away.

It's been an unusual winter in that, while the overall weather pattern has been stormy, the general storm track has been to our west. Only a few strong secondary storms have formed off the eastern seaboard, and, for the most part, they've been too far south or east to bring us the heavy snow. Outlooks for next few weeks seem to continue the pattern of strong storm systems moving northeast, but west of Connecticut, leaving us on the warm side, and bringing lots of rain, instead of lots of snow.

But don't forget that the atmosphere has a way of balancing things out. While we've been getting lots of rain around here, locations in the Midwest, such as Chicago have been seeing a lot of snow over the past few weeks. As I'm not a skier, I say, "let them keep it."

A Book Worth Reading

I just finished reading "Storm World," by Chris Mooney (Harcourt, Inc, 2007). It's a look into the raging debate on the potential effect of global warming on hurricane intensity. I found it particularly interesting, as I know many of the main characters in the book, and have had the opportunity to hear them speak at conferences and symposia.

Mooney begins by looking at the last few hurricane seasons, and how hurricane research has become far more popular among meteorologists since the 2005 season, which featured Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. He explores the beginnings of the idea that a warmer ocean would produce stronger hurricanes, and he spends a lot of time with Dr. Bill Gray, of Colorado State University, one of the country's foremost hurricane forecasters, and a global warming skeptic.
He also spends a great deal of time looking into the politics behind NOAA's official position that hurricane intensity increases are the result of a natural climatic cycle (the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) rather than any global warming contribution.

At first, it's hard to tell which side of the climate argument Mooney is on, but by book's end, he makes it clear that he is on the side of researchers such as Kerry Emanuel of MIT, and Kevin Trenberth of NCAR, who have argued that climate models indicate that a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could lead to a half-category increase (on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale) in hurricane strength.


I must admit that Mooney makes convincing arguments for the work of Emanuel, Trenberth and others, and presents them with very little bias. If you are wavering on whether global warming might be linked to weather events now and in the future, I suggest you give this book a read.