Four Months In and Going Strong

Hi Friends,

It's been four months since my retirement from CCSU and our move to the Metro DC area in Maryland.  In that time we've experienced an incredibly hot summer, a "derecho," (a strong line of thunderstorms with gusty winds in excess of 75 mph), a four day power failure in the midst of a 95 degree plus heat wave, and any number of adventures associated with finding ones way around a new area after 34 years in Connecticut.

But it's been fun, and we are getting used to the weather and climate of the Maryland-DC area.  One thing's for sure--the humidity never quits and it's not unusual to experience October days in the 70's followed by days where we don't make 60.  But there have been some beautiful days as well.

One Chapter Ends...Another Begins

I've been posting, on and off, at this blog for a few years.  Mostly, I've posted when something catches my interest, whether it be related to atmosphere and climate, or politics, or anything else that seems out of the ordinary.

Today is different.  This is my last blog as a member of the faculty at Central Connecticut State University.  I will be retiring from CCSU on June 1st, after 34 years as a Professor of Physics & Earth Sciences, specializing in Meteorology.  I finish my CCSU career as Acting Chairperson of the department, a position I accepted after our previous Chair retired last August.

Overall, it's been a great run here in Connecticut.  I got to work with many local broadcast meteorologists, some of whom are still working in the Hartford area.  I got to work as an off-camera forecaster for WFSB-TV, and on radio, as a broadcast meteorologist myself for WRCH-FM/WRCQ-AM in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and I earned the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Seal of Approval for Radio Meteorologists during that period.  My involvement with the AMS led to my service on numerous national AMS Boards, as well as a stint as Chairperson of the AMS Board for Continuing Education.  It was that board, under my leadership, and along with John Toohey-Morales of Univision and Todd Glickman of the AMS, that spearheaded the new, more rigorous AMS Certificate of Broadcast Meteorology, which has become the gold standard for certification of TV and Radio Weathercasters.  As part of the AMS Professional Affairs Commission, the Board for Continuing Education oversees the continuing education requirements for re-certification of all Broadcast Meteorologists and Certified Consulting Meteorologists within the AMS.

I got to see a number of my students go on to professional careers in the Atmospheric and Environmental Scientists.  Some are still employed by the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection.  Others went on to become professional airline pilots.  And some are working in the private sector, designing and testing new meteorological equipment used by the National Weather Service.  I am proud of these former students, and pleased to have been a part of their professional development.

My wife and I are relocating to the Baltimore/D.C. area.  I hope to be able to continue to teach meterorology on a part-time basis.  I also hope to volunteer my time and energy to any of a number of museums in the Washington, D.C. area that can make use of my expertise.  I'll continue to blog from time to time, and will share those blog entries on Facebook for those who are my friends or who wish to check in every so often.

So while some doors are closing for me, new ones are opening.  I'm excited to walk through them and see what awaits me on the other side.

Of Football, Baseball, and the Absence of Winter in Connecticut

     Finally, the National Football League season is over.  And congratulations to my beloved New York Football Giants, whose exciting victory in last night's Superbowl XLVI pretty much guarantees Hall of Fame status for both quarterback Eli Manning and Head Coach Tom Coughlin.  It's not a pretty day for Patriots fans, and believe me, here in Connecticut, I'm surrounded by them.
     And, as I look at the calendar, I see that in less than two weeks, all Major League baseball spring training camps will be underway.  Thanks again to the Giants for making the time without baseball go a lot quicker this year.  Seems like only yesterday, the Cardinals were raising the World Series trophy.
     So, where did the winter of 2011-2012 go?  Much of it seems to have landed in Europe, where Arctic cold and snow have been in the headlines for the past week.  As I mentioned in my previous blog, the worst winter weather we had here in Connecticut was on Halloween weekend (almost two months before winter actually started), when 12 inches of snow fell in the interior part of the state.  In January of 2011, we had 54.3 inches of snow (a record for ANY single month in Connecticut recorded weather history) at Bradley International Airport.  In January of this year, we had only 6.8 inches of snow, and the month averaged 5.5 degrees F warmer than normal.  The midpoint of winter came on February 4th.  The climatologically coldest day of the year was January 31st.  Yet here we are, on February 6th, with the mercury standing at 52 degrees as I write this.  Incredible!
     Just four days ago, Punxatawney Phil came out of his hole on Gobbler's Knob and saw his shadow, guaranteeing six more weeks of winter.  I don't know about you, but I'd gladly take six more weeks of the kind of winter we've been having so far. And looking two weeks out, there does not seem to be any real significant winter weather on the horizon.  With the sun getting higher each day, and the daylight hours getting longer, winter may have a tough time making a comeback.  Famous last words....

Finally, a Taste of Winter

     After wondering when winter would finally arrive in Connecticut, we finally got a small taste of winter weather with last night's snowfall.  Much of the interior part of the state picked up 2-3 inches of snow, but as I write this, temperatures are hovering around 40 degrees, rain is moving in from the west, and much of the snow will be gone by tomorrow morning.  There might be a few chances for flurries or a light accumulation over the next 3-4 days, but nothing of any significance is expected, nor is there much in the way of truly cold air on the horizon for the next week or so.

     So far, the biggest snowfall we've had was the 12-inch storm on October 28th that left much of the interior of the state without electricity for up to 10 days.  But that was truly a freak storm, that occurred in the middle of Autumn.  We haven't really seen any significant snow since then.

     It's easy to blame global warming as the culprit behind the unusually mild and snow-free winter, but other parts of the country are certainly seeing their fair share of the white stuff, especially in the midwest.  All I can say is that nature eventually returns to the average, and as we have been so far below average in snowfall for the winter season up to now, we can only cringe in horror at what the remainder of winter might bring us if nature decides to play catch-up.

Wild and Crazy Weather Around Here

As we approach the end of Autumn in southern New England, one can look back and see that this has been a rather crazy three months, especially here in Connecticut.


First, as detailed in my previous blog entry, we had an earthquake.  While the quake was centered in Virginia, it was clearly felt throughout much of the northeast.  Less than a week later, Hurricane Irene came barreling up the east coast, passing just to the west of central Connecticut.  The storm weakened to tropical storm strength just before reaching us, but the winds downed trees and power lines throughout the state.  My home was without electricity for four days, and the beginning of the Fall semester at CCSU was delayed.  It was an unpleasant experience to say the least, but at least it was warm enough, and the days were long enough to make sitting in a house with no power not as bad as it could have been.


Little did we know that just two months later, a freak Halloween weekend snowstorm would hit the state.  With many of the trees still in full leaf, the weight of the heavy, wet snow (which accumulated nearly a foot in my neighborhood) brought even more trees down than in the August tropical storm.  Much of the interior of Connecticut was in the dark once again, and with so many towns without any power, the restoration took a lot longer.  This time, my home was without electricity for nearly a week.  Others in the state spent up to 12 days in the dark.  And, as we had just turned the clocks back that weekend, the nights came earlier, and the temperatures were considerably colder.  There was more tree debris to clear, and even now, there are lots of piles of cut branches that have yet to be picked up and disposed of.


Finally, as I write this, it is 64 degrees outside.  Incredibly warm for late November.  And by midweek, temperatures will drop back into the 40s.  As I said, it's a bit crazy out there.

Earthquakes, Hurricanes, What's Next?

As I write this, Hurricane Irene is working its way up the east coast, heading for New York City.  This just two days after a magnitude 5.8 earthquake struck in Mineral, Virginia, rattling buildings from Atlanta to Toronto.  For me, this was the first time I had ever felt an earthquake.  I was sitting in my office when my chair started moving, and then I realized the whole building was swaying.  I looked at my secretary (who also noticed her chair moving from side to side) and said "we're having an earthquake."  By the time I could decide whether or not to leave the building, the swaying had stopped.  It didn't take long to confirm that we had, indeed, experienced a rare east coast earthquake.  What could top that?

How about a hurricane?  Hurricane Irene is expected to strike Connecticut late Saturday night and Sunday with 75-80 mph winds, a storm surge of up to 10 feet along the shoreline and rainfall that could be in the 5-10 inch range.  How much damage it causes, and how it will affect everyone's daily routine here on campus remains to be seen.  But no doubt, these are interesting times....

What's Going On Here?

Some of you may recognize the title of this blog entry as a question that was often posed by the late Dick Young, sports columnist for the New York Daily News.  Every so often, Mr. Young would stop and contemplate the state of affairs in the world of sports and those columns would always carry that title.

I decided to use (steal?) that title for this entry after reading about a San Francisco Giants fan named Brian Stow.  Mr. Stow, along with some friends, decided to travel down to Los Angeles to attend Opening Day at Dodger Stadium, as the world champion Giants opened the 2011 season with their in-state National League rivals.  Being the Giant fan he is, Mr. Stow was wearing a full set of Giants regalia. The Dodgers won the game 2-1, but that isn't the story.

Following the game, as Mr. Stow and his friends were leaving the stadium, he was attacked by a couple of Dodger fans (wearing Dodger Blue).  Mr. Stow was kicked, beaten and knocked to the ground.  His attackers melted into the crowd and have not yet been apprehended.  Meanwhile Mr. Stow (a Santa Cruz paramedic, and father of two) remains in a medically induced coma, and has suffered brain damage as a result of the beating.  Authorities are interviewing members of the crowd who may have witnessed the attack, and have released sketches of the alleged assailants.  A reward, which has now grown to $150,000 has been offered for information leading to the arrest and conviction of the attackers.

While we may have become accustomed to the "hooliganism" that we sometimes see at soccer games in other countries around the world, this sort of attack is out of the ordinary for American sports fans.   We can toss good-natured insults at fans of other teams (as I often do to Red Sox fans I know) but physical violence is something that has, up to now, been rare at baseball games (aside from the occasional alcohol-fed fights in the stands at various ballparks).  Let's try to remember one thing, everyone--It's Just a Game!!  Your life and my life are not any worse if either of our favorite sports teams loses.

So, the question remains, "What's Going on Here?"

Hey wait a minute! I was right!

In my last blog entry, on February 9th, I indicated that I thought that we had broken the back of winter, and that we had seen the last of the really cold air for the season. Well waddya know? I was right!

While February did produce over 15 inches of snow at Bradley Airport, there were no monster storms, nor was the cold as deep or unrelenting as we had seen in January. In fact, the winter had effectively ended once the upper level pattern shifted as it did last month.

And even though March began on the chilly side, temperatures have reached the mid-50s on a number of occasions, and just about all the precipitation for the month so far has been rain. And there doesn't seem to be any really cold air around that might bring a return of Old Man Winter.

I do, however, remember a few Yankee Stadium opening days, that were played in snow, and this IS New England, so let's not rule anything out just yet.

Finally, A Break in the Pattern

After the most miserable month of January since records have been kept in Connecticut, there appears to be a major shift in the weather pattern for the first part of this month.  Since the Christmas Night storm of December 26th, Connecticut has been pounded with one major winter storm after another.  On January 12-13, we received over two feet of snow from a single storm, breaking the all-time record for one snowstorm, held since 1905.  One week later, another 12-18 inches fell, followed by more snow later in the month.  The single-month snowfall record, fell victim to winter's wrath.  By month's end, 57 inches of snow had fallen at Bradley International Airport in January, shattering the January record of 43.1 inches, as well as the all-time single-month record (from December, 1945) of 45.3 inches.

As of this writing, 82.6 inches of snow has fallen at Bradley, putting the winter of 2010-2011 in the Top Five of all years since 1905.  And to go along with the snow, it has been brutally cold throughout much of the month of January. The month averaged 2.7 degrees colder than normal.  Only 12 of the 31 days had highs above the freezing mark.  The low for the month was 7 below zero on January 24th.  So the snow that has fallen has primarily remained on the ground with almost no melting at all.   Many roofs and a significant number of structures (including the bowling alley where my weekly league was housed) collapsed under the weight of all that snow and ice.  The only bit of good news was that we did not experience any sort of January thaw that might have caused rapid snowmelt and serious flooding concerns.

But now, there finally appears to be a major change taking place in the weather.  Upper level patterns are shifting, keeping the storm track away from the northeast.  The long-range outlook for the next 10 days shows no significant snowstorms threatening southern New England.  And the strength and volume of cold air in Canada appears to be decreasing, almost as if it has all been drained out.  We may actually see temperatures reach the 35-40 degree range later this weekend, which would allow for some slow and steady melting of snow with no threat of flooding.

We appear to have weathered the worst that winter can throw at us.  Yes, the snow piles in my neighborhood are still well over six feet tall, but they will slowly begin to shrink.  The climatologically coldest part of winter has passed.  It won't be long before someone asks, "hot enough for ya?"  I can't wait.

Remembering the Challenger - 25 Years Later

Tomorrow, January 28th, marks the 25th anniversary of the loss of the space shuttle Challenger, and its seven astronauts.  The Challenger disintegrated just 73 seconds into its mission after rubber O-rings on the shuttle's solid rocket boosters (SRB) deteriorated in the cold weather, allowing hot gasses to escape out the side and burn a hole in the external fuel tank.  The spacecraft became aerodynamically unstable, causing a massive disintegration of the external tank and the orbiter itself.

Among the passengers onboard was Christa McAuliffe, NASA's first "Teacher in Space."  Another "Teacher in Space," Barbara Morgan, who was Ms. McAuliffe's backup, waited 21 years to get her ride, finally going into orbit aboard STS-118, in August, 2007.

I recall being in class that fateful Tuesday morning.  TV coverage of the launch was almost non-existent (only CNN was televising the launch) as most networks felt shuttle launches were too routine to interrupt normal programming.  But around mid-day, I started hearing people talking in the halls--"Did you hear?  The space shuttle exploded!"  I found it hard to believe.  How could such a thing possibly be true?  We managed to round up a TV set and, by now, all the networks were covering the disaster.  The liftoff was picture perfect on a very cold Florida morning.  But a minute later, our lives had all been changed, as had the entire U.S. manned space program.  Although NASA initially claimed that the cold weather (it was 28 degrees F that morning in Cape Canaveral) contributed to the accident, later studies showed that the cold was the main factor in causing the SRB O-ring to fail.

Seventeen years and four days later, on Feb. 1, 2003, the shuttle Columbia was destroyed during re-entry.  Some of the thermal insulating tiles on the leading edge of its wing were damaged during launch, and did not protect the shuttle from the intense heat of re-entry, resulting in the breakup of the orbiter over Texas.  Among those lost was Ilan Ramon, Israel's first astronaut.

These incidents serve to remind us that the exploration of space can not only be rewarding and exciting, but risky and dangerous as well.  On this 25th anniversary of the Challenger disaster, we remember all those who made the ultimate sacrifice to advance our understanding of "the final frontier."

Challenger Crew: Michael Smith, Dick Scobee, Ron McNair, Ellison Onizuka, Christa McAuliffe, Greg Jarvis, Judith Resnik.

Columbia Crew: Rick Husband, Bill McCool, Mike Anderson, Ilan Ramon, Kalpana Chawla, David Brown, Laurel Clark.

Had Enough Yet?

This winter of 2010-2011 is certainly going to be one that I'll remember for a long time.  In the 33 years I've been living in Connecticut, I cannot remember a two-week period (from the 12th to the 26th of January) in which so much snow has fallen (and is forecast to fall) and it has been so cold.  Since the first of January, Bradley International Airport has seen over 41 inches of snow.  Adding to the 14 inches recorded in December of 2010, that brings us to around 55-56 inches of snow so far this winter.  By the way, the normal snowfall for an ENTIRE winter is 45.3 inches.  So we've already surpassed by over 10 inches the total we might normally expect for an entire winter season.  And January isn't even over yet.  Bear in mind that normally, February is the snowiest month of the year.  I can hardly wait....

Add to that the persistent cold weather so far this month.  After starting off the new year with a 51 degree reading on January 1st, there haven't been many days where the temperature has risen above the freezing mark.  Since January 2nd, there have only been six days that got above the 32 degree mark.  On the 14th and 15th we had overnight low temperatures of 3 degrees above, and 6 degrees BELOW zero, respectively.  I personally have over two feet of snow on the ground at my house, and it shows no signs of melting (except into my roof and down through the ceiling of my family room).  The forecast for the next few days features temperatures that will reach 5 to 10 BELOW zero at night and struggle to make 20 degrees during the day.  Adding to that, there is a possibility of yet another major snowstorm on Wednesday of next week (the 26th) that could add to the already outrageously high piles of snow on the ground.

What could possibly explain why I still live and work here in the northeast?

A Continent Apart

I have two children, both married.  They live on opposite sides of the country.  My son and his wife live in Los Angeles, having moved there in the summer of 2008.  My daughter and her husband (along with my cute little granddaughter) live in Baltimore, in the area where they both went to college.  As you can imagine, this makes whole family get-togethers somewhat problematical.

As you might expect, I see the Baltimore side of the family much more often than the Los Angeles side.  I find this somewhat upsetting, as it almost seems as if I favor my daughter over my son.  That isn't the case at all.  But I do find that the distance to my son and daughter-in-law makes it seem as if I hardly know them since they got married.  My wife and I try to get out there at least twice a year, and we try to get them to come east at least twice a year, but it still doesn't help get rid of the disconnect that is always there.  While I talk to my son on the phone or via e-mail regularly, it's not nearly the same as seeing him and his wife face-to-face. My wife and I both miss him terribly.  It's always a sad scene when we have to go home and the long airplane flight can be tough on both us us.  They are planning to move back east at some point, but there's no real timetable for that right now.

However, it looks as if we will be getting the entire family together in Baltimore during the winter.  This should be a fun time for all of us, as my son and his wife haven't seen their niece since last May and she's really changed.  At the same time, I worry about the weather.  Last February, my wife and I went down to Baltimore to visit, and we got snowed in by a record storm--30 inches of snow in a 36 hour period.  While that is a once-in-a-lifetime snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic states, you never know when it could happen again.  Hopefully, it won't happen again THIS winter.

Bring on the Twins!

One thing about post-season baseball that can't always be factored in to predictions is the weather.  For example, a lot of New York Yankee fans are worried about facing the Minnesota Twins in the American League Division Series out in Minneapolis.  While this may seem to be a rehash of last year's ALDS, there is one major difference.  Last year, the games in Minnesota were played in the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, a large, loud enclosed stadium, insulated from the effects of the weather outside (it actually snowed during one of the games).  This year, the Twins opened a brand new ballpark, Target Field.  It's a good old-fashioned outdoor ballpark with no protection from the October weather.

Fortunately, the forecast is calling for better weather in Minneapolis than in New York.  Daytime temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday in the Twin Cities should reach the 70 degree mark. Game time temperatures should be in the low 60's.  Considering that there will be rain and chilly temperatures in New York tomorrow and Thursday, the lords of Major League Baseball are probably thrilled that the ALDS is opening in Minneapolis rather than in New York.  And to make things even better, the forecast for the weekend in New York (for games 3 and, if necessary, 4) is also calling for fair and mild weather.  That's all that any true baseball fan could ask for--a series in which weather won't be a major factor.  Play ball!

Misery--Week 2

If you've been reading my occasional blog entries, then you already know that I am a rabid Yankee fan with a Saturday season ticket package.  Tomorrow, I'll be attending my second straight game in two weeks.  Last week was an interesting day.  It began with the 64th Annual Old Timers' Day, followed by a truly horrific Yankee performance against the Tampa Bay Rays (a 10-5 loss).  And as if that weren't bad enough, it was a hot and humid day in the Bronx.  Even though my seats are under the Grandstand overhang, in the shade, it was still uncomfortably warm and I was miserable by the time I got home.

Tomorrow promises even more misery.  The warm front that brought the persistent rain to Connecticut today will likely push north and east of the region overnight, leaving us in the pressure cooker for tomorrow.  This could be one of the most uncomfortable days of the summer.  Temperatures will be pushing well into the 90s with dew points reaching the mid-70s.  What does that mean?  Let's just say that when the dew point reaches 70 degrees, the air is already oppressively humid.  When it exceeds 75, as it might tomorrow, we are looking at tropical rainforest levels of humidity.  Combined with the high temperatures, it will most likely feel more like 105 degrees tomorrow afternoon.

With some 48,000 other fans to surround me, I guess it just proves that misery really does love company.  The only thing that might make it a bit more palatable is that Alex Rodriguez might hit homerun #600 tomorrow (unless he does it tonight).  Despite what most people believe, baseballs travel farther in hot, humid weather than in hot, dry weather.  So there's a chance that the crowd's collective misery might be turned into a grand celebration in the Bronx tomorrow.  Here's hoping...

Another Semester Coming to an End

Today is supposed to be a Reading Day on campus, as students prepare for their Final Exams next week.  Yet, here I am, conducting a Lab exercise in my Introduction to Meteorology class with 11 students in attendance.  We needed to use this day as a make-up for a missed Thursday lab, so here we are, all wishing we could be someplace else.

The next month will be somewhat hectic for me, as my son is getting married on Memorial Day weekend, and my granddaughter will soon be celebrating her first birthday.  Sandwiched between those momentous occasions will be prep time for my Summer Session courses, and a couple of trips to Yankee Stadium to watch my beloved Bronx Bombers take on the Red Sox and Twins.  The first of those two games is this Saturday, and the weather looks to be ideal, with sunny skies and temperatures in the low 70's.  

We've become somewhat spoiled by the warmer than normal Spring weather in Connecticut, so people seem to be disappointed if the mercury doesn't reach the 80 degree mark.  However, normal highs for this time of year should be in the low 70's so we are right where we should be.  Feels nice after a few damp and chilly days earlier this week.  I predict, with great confidence however, that within the next 6 weeks, we'll begin hearing complaints about how hot and humid it is, and how we just can't wait for things to cool off and Autumn to be here.  Just goes to prove that you can't please everyone, no matter what you do.

Big Bang...Big bust!

Just back from 6 days in beautiful, but congested, sunny southern California. My wife and I went out to visit our son and his fiancee (last time we'll see them before they get married). Weather was great. Traffic was horrendous. Fantastic food of every variety (Japanese, Korean, Mexican, Italian, and, of course, Carl's Jr. and In-N-Out Burger).

Biggest disappointment of all, however, was the taping of an episode of one of my favorite sitcoms, The Big Bang Theory. We had procured four tickets for the Tuesday evening taping. We were told to arrive at least one hour before the scheduled 6:30 showtime. Traffic between Venice and Burbank was unbelievable. Arrived at Warner Bros. studios at 5:50 PM. At first, we were turned away, but then put on the list as guests 125-128. Unfortunately, an unusually high number of guests on the VIP list meant that only 89 of the 128 ticket-holders got in to see the taping. We wound up leaving with a VIP card that can be used for any taping in the next year. So our "Big Bang" turned out to be a "big bust." We wound up poking around Burbank, then heading up to the Griffith Park Observatory to look at the moon through a telescope, and marvel at the city of Los Angeles at night, laid out below us like a twinkling blanket.

One more thing. While the "redeye" flight allows you to spend a full day in L.A. before coming home (a day which included some successful whale-watching from Point Vicente in Palos Verdes), you definitely pay the price on the day you get home.

Enough Already!

This looks to be an active week in the weather department here in Connecticut. Two major winter storms will be affecting the region between now and the upcoming weekend. The computer models that forecast weather systems are having fits trying to determine exactly where the storm tracks will be, and where the all-important rain/snow line will be.

Snow should develop overnight and we may see around an inch or so by morning. Things get interesting tomorrow, as temperatures rise to the upper 30s during the day. Expect a rain/snow mix here in central Connecticut, with more rain along the shoreline and more snow in the northwest hills. Wednesday might give us a bit of a break, but another storm system moves up the coast on Thursday. This second storm may pull in a little more cold air, which could set us up for a more significant snow accumulation. In addition, the models are forecasting the storm center to stall right over Connecticut, keeping us in stormy weather through most of Friday, and possibly into the early part of the weekend.

I know there's some warm air somewhere out there, but it doesn't look like it's coming this way anytime soon. At least baseball is being played in Florida and Arizona, so Spring is surely coming (but when?).

Back in Connecticut, But What A Day It Was!

After a wild, wild weekend in snowed-in Baltimore, we are finally back in Connecticut, just in time for a new snowstorm. Our flight back from Baltimore was cancelled this morning, and we were forced to take Amtrak to get back home in time for work tomorrow. The weekend storm deposited over two FEET of snow in the Federal Hill neighborhood of Baltimore, where my daughter, her husband and my granddaughter live. They've finally managed to dig out their cars, and now they are staring at another 10-12 inches of snow coming tomorrow afternoon and through the night tomorrow night. That would make this the snowiest winter in Baltimore history.

Here in Connecticut, the weekend storm left not a flake in the Hartford-New Britain region, but this new storm won't be so benevolent. Winter Storm Watches are already posted and they could be upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings tomorrow. The more northerly track of this new storm means New Yorkers could be digging out from a foot of snow by Wednesday morning, and some of that will likely be coming to central Connecticut. I've lived that last 32 years here in Connecticut, and 5 years before that in upstate New York, and I have never seen as much snow in one place as I did in Baltimore this past weekend.

Last week, I mentioned that February and March are normally the two snowiest months of the winter. It looks as if February is going to be living up to its reputation.

In the Teeth of the Blizzard

On Thursday, I posted a message relating to the El Nino effect taking storms out to sea south of Connecticut. That is happening right now as I write this. And it looks as if central Connecticut won't see any snow at all.

This weekend, my wife and I are visiting with my daughter, son-in-law and our 8-month old granddaughter. That's usually a great thing, and we always have fun with her. However, I should add that they live in Baltimore, and that's where I'm blogging from today--in the very center of the Blizzard of 2010. We arrived here yesterday on the last Southwest Airlines flight from Hartford to Baltimore before the remainder of their schedule was cancelled. The snow started around 3 PM and really picked up overnight. As of 11:45 AM today, Baltimore Airport has recorded 26.5 inches of snow, and it is still snowing heavily. It is very likely that the all-time record for a single snowstorm in Baltimore is 28.2 inches, and that will likely be broken.

While we are all safely indoors, the street that we are on is too narrow for a plow to get through, so we may be snowed in here for days. I hope not, but it's truly amazing to be a part of meteorological history.

Another Near Miss. What Did You Expect from El Nino?

For the second time this week, a major winter storm is, by and large, going to miss central Connecticut. Earlier in the week, a storm system moved out to sea to our south, dusting Connecticut with a little snow, but depositing some 4-5 inches in the D.C-Baltimore area (which, for them, is a lot of snow).

Then forecasters started talking up another storm, supposed to affect our weather by Friday and into the weekend. The computer models were all over the place, some taking the system close enough to Connecticut to give us a decent snowfall (what broadcasters like to call a "plowable" storm). Other models were taking a more southerly track. As the week progressed, the models seemed to zero in on the more southerly track, once again taking the bulk of the snow through the Mid-Atlantic states, and missing Connecticut. In fact, as I write this, it appears that the Baltimore-Washington region is looking at the potential for 12-20 inches of the white stuff from this latest storm. So why are all these storms missing the northeast?

Simply put, there is a strong El Nino ocean current in the Pacific Ocean. When this occurs, the upper level jet stream over North America splits into a northern branch and a southern branch; and the southern branch is usually quite strong. The strong southern branch of the jet stream is responsible for all the rain in southern California, as well as the stormy weather that south Florida has seen this winter. It also tends to steer winter storms out to our south.

So while we still have plenty of cold air to deal with, we've been fortunate (sorry, all you skiers and snowboarders) that there hasn't been that much snow so far. And, for good measure, the storm that was being talked up for Tuesday and Wednesday is now also looking to be a bust, going south once again. This time you CAN blame it all on El Nino.