Out Like a Lamb

March lives up to its reputation here in Connecticut.  In like a lion, out like a lamb.  That couldn't be more true than it's been this month.  On March 3rd, we had the coldest  day of the month, with a high temperature of only 22 degrees F here in New Britain.  Today, on the last day of March, we've seen the mercury top out at a balmy 59 degrees.   At Bradley International Aiport, almost 8 inches of snow fell on March 2nd.  There was no more snow for the rest of the month, even though March is climatologically the second snowiest month of the year.

That's not to imply that there won't be any more winter weather here in New England.  There are plenty of reports of accumulating snow in past years, even into the early part of May.  But as the length of daylight grows longer, and the intensity of the sunlight grows stronger, winter is finally losing the battle as springtime weather takes over.

Only 6 more days till the Yankees open the 2009 regular season in Baltimore.  I can't wait!

What a Turnaround!

Just eight days ago, in my last post, I talked about the impending 8-12 inch snowstorm that had just begun around Connecticut.  In fact, much of the state got exactly that amount of snow, with some regions getting upwards of 14 inches of new snow.  And this, just after all the winter's snow cover had finally melted.

Now, little more than a week later, all of that snow is gone.  With the past weekend's 60+ degree weather on both Saturday and Sunday, it has all melted away.  Even after living in New England for over 30 years, I am still amazed by how quickly the weather can change around here.

Let the Fun Begin!

After a dusting of snow early this morning, the main event here in Connecticut is finally underway. Snow began here in the Hartford area around 9 PM, and should become quite heavy overnight.

Looks like a good 6-12 inches for the Hartford-New Britain area. Highest amounts (12-15 inches) will be in northeastern Connecticut and across central Massachusetts and southern Vermont and New Hampshire.

Oh well! Who wants to look at dull brown ground anyway? Fresh snow is much prettier.

A Taste of Spring, Then Back to the Reality of Winter

Yesterday's high temperature of 60 degrees at both Bradley Airport, and our own weather station here at CCSU gave us all a taste of Spring. Then the cold front moved in, and just before 2 AM today, the wind shifted back around to the northwest, the dew point plunged from the 40s back to the teens and suddenly, here we are back in winter once again. And it's not over yet.

A quick moving storm system will develop along the stalled front to our south and snow should break out overnight and last into the morning hours tomorrow. Look for an inch or two of the white stuff, as a prelude to a much nastier storm that will affect the region late tomorrow night and through a good portion of the day on Monday. It looks as if we could see as much as 6-8 inches of snow by the time this storm is over late Monday afternoon or Monday evening. Some areas of southern New England could see as much as a foot of snow from this storm. Still, the nature of coastal storms is their inherent unpredictability, so don't expect the broadcasters to narrow in the forecast amounts until later tonight, or, in some cases (for the more conservative forecasters) later tomorrow.

The seemingly never-ending winter of 2008-2009 marches merrily on...

Finally in the New Yankee Stadium

It's been 3 1/2 months since the Yankees ended their 2008 season and closed the doors on historic Yankee Stadium. A brand new stadium has now risen right across the street, and the Yankees will open this ballpark officially on April 16th (although a couple of exhibition games will be played against the Cubs on April 3rd and 4th). It promises to be a magnificent new facility.

However, the way in which existing season ticket holders have been relocated has been, to say the least, frustrating. I have had a Saturday season ticket plan since 1999, right behind home plate in the first row of the upper deck. I was told early on that seats in that part of the new stadium would be reserved exclusively for full season ticket holders. So I filled out an online questionnaire and let the Yankees know where I'd like to sit for this coming season.

Apparently, all that went out the window. I just received my new seat location this past Tuesday. They've put me in the upper deck beyond the foul pole, in fair territory, in right field. This is where Jason Giambi used to hit home runs on a good day. I guess I shouldn't complain too much, though. A significant number of Saturday and Sunday plan holders weren't even offered seats on the weekend days--they were relocated to WEEKDAY plans (mostly Mon-Thurs night games). And the silver lining is that this particular location saves me a lot of money compared to last year. My seats are $15 less per ticket than I paid in 2008. I'm not thrilled to be way out there, but I am thrilled to be in the new stadium, and I can't wait to see what the new place looks like from the inside.

Bad Ads and Dumb Ideas

Now that "the Big Game" is nearly here, I thought I'd go off on some of my pet advertising peeves. Let's start with "the Big Game" itself. What's with the NFL not allowing us to use the word "S...owl" in advertising? It's not as if they wouldn't benefit from everyone talking about the game for two solid weeks. But, if you're an advertiser, you can't use that word without paying the NFL a fee. How stupid is that? It's gotten to the point where the Brotherhood of my own synagogue couldn't publish a flyer advertising its annual Super...oops, I almost said it...er, Big Game party for fear that they'd be sued for using the word.

Next...how about the car dealerships here in Connecticut that advertise that they can get anyone credit, even if you have no credit or "slow credit." I'm still trying to figure out exactly what "slow credit" is. So then they tell you that you can own this $39,000 car for just $99 down OR $99 per month. It's a good thing that I have a DVR on my TV so I can freeze the ad and read the tiny print before it vanishes from the screen. Seems that the $99 down deal requires a 60-month loan with a monthly payment approaching $900 per month. And the $99 per month deal, for a 60-month period requires a down payment of over $30,000. I don't know many people with bad credit who could afford either one of these scenarios. And suffice it to say that I'd never do business with any car dealership that would resort to such misleading tactics. Would you?

Cold, Cold and More Cold

If you're thinking that this has been one cold January, you are absolutely right. Through the first 21 days of 2009, the temperature has averaged 4.4 degrees below normal. Fourteen of the 21 days have had daily average temperatures colder than normal, and we are 10 percent above the normal heating degree day (HDD) total for the month so far. For those unfamiliar, a HDD is a measurement of heating fuel usage. It is calculated by subtracting the daily average temperature--(MAX + MIN) /2--from a base of 65 (the average temperature below which it is assumed that you must use fuel to heat your home). So, for example, a day that has an average temperature of 25 degrees, accumulated 40 HDD (65-25). The more HDD we accumulate, the more fuel we use (i.e., the colder it is).

Normally, at this time of January, we'd be anticipating a "January Thaw." This phenomenon, a marked warming late in the month that lasts a few days, actually shows up in long-term averages for the region. But don't look for one this month. Computer models show a quick warm-up (to the upper 30's) for Friday, but then right back to the below-normal weather pattern for the remainder of the month. The daylight hours are getting longer now, but the old saying still holds true--"As the day lengthens, the cold strengthens." In fact, the climatologically coldest days of winter come at the very end of January and into the first few days of February (in spite of the increased daylight). Things normally begin to turn around by mid-February, but don't fool yourselves--there's still plenty of winter left before the grass begins to turn green once again. Stay warm.

The Joys of Automation

If you've logged in to the CCSU Weather website (www.ccsu.edu/weather) in the past three days, you may have noticed that our live weather screen is not updating properly. This, unfortunately, happens everytime there is a power interruption on campus. It causes our computers to go down, and they do not automatically reboot and transmit the current weather information to the internet.

This requires me to physically log in to the Weather Center computer and start things up all over again. This is usually not a problem during the semester, when I am on campus every day, but during intersession, I'm not always there if there's a problem. If the weather cooperates, we may have things fixed tomorrow. But if not, I expect things will be back to normal by Thursday afternoon. Sorry if the lack of live weather causes an inconvenience for anyone. You should be aware that our system continues to record and log weather conditions, even when they are not updating, so, once the system is back online, all the weather data for the past few days will be uploaded and available to all the weather geeks out there.

Snow and ice overnight into tomorrow morning, so be careful out there.

I Hate Winter

One of the things that people living in the northern part of the U.S. like is the change of seasons. And certainly, the fall foliage display here in New England is a highlight of the year's weather that always takes one's breath away, no matter how many times it's experienced. And I would miss that difference between winter and spring, between spring and fall, and the crispness of a fall morning.

And while I admit that living in a southern location where it's warm all the time would be somewhat attractive, it would also be somewhat boring. Having said all that, I still have to say that I hate winter. By mid-December here in Connecticut, the leaves are off the trees, the lawns have turned to a dull shade of greenish-brown, and the skies are almost always gray. Sure, there are some crisp, sunny days thrown in here and there, but they seem to just tease you for a day or two before the relentless gray comes back again. And once the ground is covered with snow, even that little bit of ratty green disappears, not to be seen again until late March. And of course, there's no baseball.

Perhaps I'm just becoming older and more curmudgeonly. I have to admit that it's a distinct possibility.

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

I know, I know. The stock market is a mess. The economy is in shambles. There is terrorism, war and unrest all over the world. And yet, on Thanksgiving Day, we can all find something, no matter how small or insignificant, to be thankful for.

So, as you sit down to Thanksgiving Dinner with friends and family, take a moment to reflect on the good things that life has to offer you every day.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Talk About Stressful Weather...

A number of years ago, the National Weather Service used to release a Weather Stress Index to indicate the degree to which the weather would cause stress on the human body.  How that stress was defined was to compare the type of weather that would normally be expected for a particular time of year to the actual weather that was forecast to occur.  So, for example, a 90 degree day in Miami in September would be a lot less stressful than a 90 degree day in Minneapolis on the same day.  Conversely, a 40 degree day in Minneapolis in November would be a lot less stressful than a 40 degree day in Miami at any time.

We've certainly seen our share of weather stress this week in Connecticut (and much of the northeastern part of the U.S.).  At my home this morning, the mercury bottomed out at 14.8 degrees, more than 15 degrees colder than the normal low of 31 for this time of year.  And while today's normal high temperature is 48 degrees, we topped out here at 36.5 degrees.  And the cold is only getting stronger as we move into the upcoming weekend.  

To make matters personally worse, last weekend, my wife I visited our son, who lives in San Diego.  Three solid days of absolutely crystal clear skies and temperatures near 90 degrees were immediately followed by the cold, blustery weather we experienced as soon as we returned to Connecticut.  Now THAT'S stressful!

A Nice Day for All the Veterans

Somehow, it always seems that the weather turns out to be nice on Veteran's Day. And today is no exception, as the sun is shining here in Connecticut, and the mercury should get up to the low 50s this afternoon. Tomorrow looks great as well, with morning sunshine giving way to afternoon clouds. It will be on the cool side, however, as I don't expect we'll break the 50 degree mark tomorrow.

Things go downhill for the latter part of the week and into the weekend. A series of low pressure waves will bring rain (and maybe some snow to higher elevations) on Thursday and through much of Friday. Saturday and Sunday don't look much better, with clouds and the continuing chance of rain or showers.

While we may not agree with all the wars fought by this country in the recent past, we still need to honor those who have answered the call and put their lives on the line for our freedom. So if you know someone who has served, give them a tip of the hat today.

Yes We Can....Yes We Did!

Americans turned out in record numbers (largest percentage of eligible voters since 1908) to speak up for change in America yesterday. My thanks to all who took the time to make their voices heard.

In the words of the late President Gerald Ford, "My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over." And while it might be a cloudy day in Connecticut today, the sun is shining all over this great nation of ours. And the American beacon of hope, freedom and leadership is once again shining brightly all over the world.

Vote Today to Change America!

Please don't forget to vote today, if for no other reason than to honor and remember those who gave their lives so that you might still have that right.

This is our opportunity to take back America. Vote!

Nice Autumn Days

After all the rain, wind and cold we've experienced over the past week, it's nice to be able to forecast some nearly perfect Autumn weather for the upcoming weekend. Those of you with Friday off will have a great day, with perfectly clear skies, light winds and, although we'll get off to a chilly start, temperatures reaching up to near 60 in many inland locations across Connecticut.

Another frontal system will move through on Friday night, giving us some cloudy skies into early Saturday that should lead to partly cloudy skies by afternoon. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler on Saturday, with many areas topping off only around 50. Sunday looks like another beautiful day with lots of sunshine and highs in the 56-58 degree range.

If only there weren't so many leaves to rake....

A Chance to Change History, A Chance to Make History

As I write this, only 10 days remain until the 2008 Presidential Election. And in this election, Americans have a chance to change history and to make history at the same time. I remember when I first started voting, almost 40 years ago, that no one ever believed that a woman or an African-American would ever be elected President of the United States in our lifetimes. The history of our country would lead many to believe that we could never overcome the discrimination of our past and change the perception of the United States around the world.

Now we stand on the threshold of a history-making election. We can change that perception of America on November 4th by electing Senator Barack Obama of Illinois as our next President.

Sen. Obama has shown that he has the composure, and the intelligence to lead this country back to the greatness of the post World War II years. Those were times when the world knew that America stood for freedom and democracy around the world. President Kennedy realized that same thing when he started the Peace Corps in the 1960s. But the last eight years have seen our reputation sullied at the hands of the current administration. Our Constitution is under attack from within our own Executive branch. America's image is tarnished. Senator John McCain promises more of the same--an endless war in Iraq, and more tax cuts to the wealthiest one percent of Americans while the middle class continues to struggle with high health care costs, loss of retirement funds and foreclosures on homes. His choice of a completely unprepared running mate brings his judgment into serious doubt. We have a chance to move forward and regain our stature around the world, and to show the rest of the world that we can, indeed unite as one nation, and move beyond the past eight years into a new decade of leadership.

I support Barack Obama for President, and I hope that you will join with me in voting for him on November 4th.

The opinions stated in this blog are solely my own, and in no way represent the Physics-Earth Sciences Department or Central Connecticut State University.

Caribbean Vacations During Hurricane Season

Every summer, people wonder and worry about whether they should plan a Caribbean vacation during the months of August and September. After all, these are peak hurricane months in the tropics, and, while prices tend to drop on vacation packages, one always runs the risk of having a hurricane or tropical storm put a real damper on that much-anticipated vacation.

Here's something you should think about, if such a vacation is already in your plans for next summer. You might be better off booking a cruise vacation, than sticking with just one island. The major reason I say this is that when tropical weather threatens, a hotel cannot just pick up and move out of the way. A cruise ship, however, can alter course to avoid the bad weather entirely. And while that may sound like no big deal, it can completely change the nature of your vacation. For example, a couple of years ago, a major cruise line altered its planned itinerary for a cruise from New York to Bermuda. The island was in the potential path of a hurricane. So the captain, in consultation with the cruise line, decided to take the ship north to New England and Canada for the 7-day cruise. Needless to say, this raised howls of indignation from passengers, who had packed clothing in anticipation of tropical weather, and were now facing weather of a much cooler nature. Many threatened to sue the cruise line. But the fine print in the cruise contract left them with no legal recourse. The cruise line reserves the right to skip scheduled ports-of-call, or even change the itinerary altogether if, in the captain's opinion, the ship might be threatened by tropical storms or hurricanes. Most cruise lines, if they know in advance, will offer passengers the option to cancel and rebook at no charge. If the itinerary change is a last-minute affair, they will often give you some onboard credit to make up for the inconvenience. But be aware that they are under NO obligation to give you any sort of compensation for weather-related itinerary changes.

Having said that, you are still probably better off on a cruise ship that can avoid bad weather than on an island in the direct path of a major storm, with the airport shut down, and no way out.

The Blog Goes Political

If you've visited this blog before today, you've probably noticed that I list "Obama for America" as one of my favorite websites. So it's no secret who I'm supporting in the upcoming election (now just 29 days away). Aside from one message about Gov. Sarah Palin, I have steadfastly resisted posting any politically oriented opinions on this blog (as it has been, and still is, mostly about weather related topics).

However, with the nasty, negative turn that Sen. John McCain's campaign has now taken (and vows to continue right up till Election Day), I have to speak up. Sen. McCain had a nice post-convention bounce, and actually had a slight lead in polls coming out of the Republican National Convention. But instead of talking issues, his campaign turned to a series of out-and-out lies about Barack Obama and his (Obama's) positions. The result of that negative campaigning was a drop in support for McCain. Having seen that fail, McCain attempted to politicize the financial crisis in America, "suspending" his campaign to return to Washington and push the bailout package (which failed in the House after he became involved in the negotiations). The public and the press did not fall for this campaign stunt, so Sen. McCain did, in fact, debate Sen. Obama and lost that debate by a considerable margin. Last Thursday, Gov. Palin, while not self-destructing, as many expected, failed to convince many Independent and undecided voters that she is ready for the Vice Presidency (and, heaven help us, the White House). The McCain campaign has lost even more ground over the past few days.

Yesterday, the campaign announced that they would devote the remainder of the time before the election to attacking Sen. Obama's patriotism and honor. Those attacks began this morning with a new ad that paints Sen. Obama as "dangerous" and "dishonorable." Most of these attacks are, once again, based on more lies and deceptive video clips. Gov. Palin, over the weekend, accused Sen. Obama of "palling around with terrorists," and being "unlike most Americans." This morning, she commented on Sen. Obama's association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright, conveniently ignoring her own association with the Wasilla Bible Church, which recently hosted David Brickner, the head of Jews for Jesus, "a ministry that is out on the leading edge in a pressing, demanding area of witnessing and evangelism,” according to the Church's pastor Larry Kroons. According to Brickner, terrorist attacks on Israelis are God's "judgment of unbelief" of Jews who haven't embraced Christianity. "Judgment is very real and we see it played out on the pages of the newspapers and on the television. It's very real. When [Brickner's son] was in Jerusalem he was there to witness some of that judgment, some of that conflict, when a Palestinian from East Jerusalem took a bulldozer and went plowing through a score of cars, killing numbers of people. Judgment — you can't miss it."

The McCain campaign is out of ideas. They cannot debate on the issues, as they are completely out of step with the American public. So they attack Barack Obama and they will bring out all the old, disproven ideas (he's a Muslim, he went to a madrassa as a child, he won't wear an American flag pin, etc.) to scare voters into supporting McCain (a man who graduated 894th in a class of 899 at the U.S. Naval Academy).

I never thought this possible, but the McCain-Palin ticket is, in my opinion, even scarier than another four years of Bush-Cheney. And this won't be my last political post before Nov. 4th.
It should be interesting to see how tomorrow night's second Presidential Debate develops now that the tone of the campaign has changed so dramatically.

Mystique and Aura...Appearing Nightly

I went to my last game at Yankee Stadium yesterday afternoon. And there are so many memories I have of the "Cathedral of Baseball" that I thought I'd put some of them into words here. First, let me say that when the sun is shining and the sky is a beautiful shade of blue, that first view of the field as you walk up the runway and into the upper deck just takes your breath away. There is no other view like that in baseball, and I’ll miss it once the new stadium opens.

Also, in the ten years that I’ve been a partial season ticket holder, I’ve made lots of friends in the seats around me. None of us knows where we’re going to be seated next year, so we basically said goodbye yesterday.

As the game ended, I just stood at my seat, surveying the beautiful green grass down below, the view of the county courthouse beyond centerfield and the old Concourse Plaza Hotel at the crest of 161st St. in the distance, and realized I’d never be inside this old building again. That’s when my emotions actually got the best of me. A friend in the next seat had a tear running down his cheek.

But the sadness was mixed with the euphoria of a Yankee victory, and being lucky enough to once again hear the strains of “Enter Sandman” as the bullpen door opened and the greatest closer in the history of baseball emerged to do what he does better than anyone–shut down the opposition with a perfect ninth inning.

I’d love to be there tonight, but I consider myself very blessed to have seen so many great moments in Yankee Stadium and to have been able to share them with all 55,000 of my best friends…and the best fans in baseball. Those of you that were fortunate enough to see any of the 2001 World Series games at the Stadium will know exactly what the title of this blog entry means. Thanks for the memories.

Fighting the "Cry Wolf" Syndrome

Two weeks ago, in the face of the arrival of Hurricane Gustav, New Orleans officials ordered a mandatory evacuation, and told residents that if they did not leave, they were "on their own." Many residents complied and the city was a virtual ghost town by the time Gustav brushed past. Damage was nothing like that from Katrina, and many residents, upon returning, said the evacuation was unnecessary, and they would not leave again.
Obviously, those words were in the minds of many residents of the Galveston Bay area as Hurricane Ike approached the region last Saturday morning. By noon, some beachfront communities were completely cut off, as water levels had already risen past nine feet, submerging the only access roads. As it turns out, over 140,000 area residents did not evacuate, either choosing to ignore the advice of the National Weather Service, or being unable to leave for whatever reasons. The death toll from Ike has already topped 40 in Texas, with over 2000 having been rescued from their flooded or destroyed homes. Many felt the evacuation order was unnecessary and simply ignored it. Some undoubtedly lost their lives. Many more lost their homes. In the wake of the storm, many who stayed were quoted as saying, "next time, I'll leave," --the exact opposite of the reaction to Gustav in New Orleans.
The US Geological Survey has posted some "Before" and "After" photos of the Bolivar Peninsula (a particularly hard-hit area just east of Galveston). Almost all of the beachfront or near-beachfront homes here are completely gone, either blown or washed away by Ike's fury. Click here to see what's left.
How do we fight "Cry Wolf" Syndrome in the future? There are no clear answers. We live in a country where people are free to be as stupid as they like. But faced with an approaching catastrophe, we should think about choosing what former Hurricane Center Director Neil Frank used to call "the path of least regret."