A Continent Apart

I have two children, both married.  They live on opposite sides of the country.  My son and his wife live in Los Angeles, having moved there in the summer of 2008.  My daughter and her husband (along with my cute little granddaughter) live in Baltimore, in the area where they both went to college.  As you can imagine, this makes whole family get-togethers somewhat problematical.

As you might expect, I see the Baltimore side of the family much more often than the Los Angeles side.  I find this somewhat upsetting, as it almost seems as if I favor my daughter over my son.  That isn't the case at all.  But I do find that the distance to my son and daughter-in-law makes it seem as if I hardly know them since they got married.  My wife and I try to get out there at least twice a year, and we try to get them to come east at least twice a year, but it still doesn't help get rid of the disconnect that is always there.  While I talk to my son on the phone or via e-mail regularly, it's not nearly the same as seeing him and his wife face-to-face. My wife and I both miss him terribly.  It's always a sad scene when we have to go home and the long airplane flight can be tough on both us us.  They are planning to move back east at some point, but there's no real timetable for that right now.

However, it looks as if we will be getting the entire family together in Baltimore during the winter.  This should be a fun time for all of us, as my son and his wife haven't seen their niece since last May and she's really changed.  At the same time, I worry about the weather.  Last February, my wife and I went down to Baltimore to visit, and we got snowed in by a record storm--30 inches of snow in a 36 hour period.  While that is a once-in-a-lifetime snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic states, you never know when it could happen again.  Hopefully, it won't happen again THIS winter.

Bring on the Twins!

One thing about post-season baseball that can't always be factored in to predictions is the weather.  For example, a lot of New York Yankee fans are worried about facing the Minnesota Twins in the American League Division Series out in Minneapolis.  While this may seem to be a rehash of last year's ALDS, there is one major difference.  Last year, the games in Minnesota were played in the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, a large, loud enclosed stadium, insulated from the effects of the weather outside (it actually snowed during one of the games).  This year, the Twins opened a brand new ballpark, Target Field.  It's a good old-fashioned outdoor ballpark with no protection from the October weather.

Fortunately, the forecast is calling for better weather in Minneapolis than in New York.  Daytime temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday in the Twin Cities should reach the 70 degree mark. Game time temperatures should be in the low 60's.  Considering that there will be rain and chilly temperatures in New York tomorrow and Thursday, the lords of Major League Baseball are probably thrilled that the ALDS is opening in Minneapolis rather than in New York.  And to make things even better, the forecast for the weekend in New York (for games 3 and, if necessary, 4) is also calling for fair and mild weather.  That's all that any true baseball fan could ask for--a series in which weather won't be a major factor.  Play ball!

Misery--Week 2

If you've been reading my occasional blog entries, then you already know that I am a rabid Yankee fan with a Saturday season ticket package.  Tomorrow, I'll be attending my second straight game in two weeks.  Last week was an interesting day.  It began with the 64th Annual Old Timers' Day, followed by a truly horrific Yankee performance against the Tampa Bay Rays (a 10-5 loss).  And as if that weren't bad enough, it was a hot and humid day in the Bronx.  Even though my seats are under the Grandstand overhang, in the shade, it was still uncomfortably warm and I was miserable by the time I got home.

Tomorrow promises even more misery.  The warm front that brought the persistent rain to Connecticut today will likely push north and east of the region overnight, leaving us in the pressure cooker for tomorrow.  This could be one of the most uncomfortable days of the summer.  Temperatures will be pushing well into the 90s with dew points reaching the mid-70s.  What does that mean?  Let's just say that when the dew point reaches 70 degrees, the air is already oppressively humid.  When it exceeds 75, as it might tomorrow, we are looking at tropical rainforest levels of humidity.  Combined with the high temperatures, it will most likely feel more like 105 degrees tomorrow afternoon.

With some 48,000 other fans to surround me, I guess it just proves that misery really does love company.  The only thing that might make it a bit more palatable is that Alex Rodriguez might hit homerun #600 tomorrow (unless he does it tonight).  Despite what most people believe, baseballs travel farther in hot, humid weather than in hot, dry weather.  So there's a chance that the crowd's collective misery might be turned into a grand celebration in the Bronx tomorrow.  Here's hoping...

Another Semester Coming to an End

Today is supposed to be a Reading Day on campus, as students prepare for their Final Exams next week.  Yet, here I am, conducting a Lab exercise in my Introduction to Meteorology class with 11 students in attendance.  We needed to use this day as a make-up for a missed Thursday lab, so here we are, all wishing we could be someplace else.

The next month will be somewhat hectic for me, as my son is getting married on Memorial Day weekend, and my granddaughter will soon be celebrating her first birthday.  Sandwiched between those momentous occasions will be prep time for my Summer Session courses, and a couple of trips to Yankee Stadium to watch my beloved Bronx Bombers take on the Red Sox and Twins.  The first of those two games is this Saturday, and the weather looks to be ideal, with sunny skies and temperatures in the low 70's.  

We've become somewhat spoiled by the warmer than normal Spring weather in Connecticut, so people seem to be disappointed if the mercury doesn't reach the 80 degree mark.  However, normal highs for this time of year should be in the low 70's so we are right where we should be.  Feels nice after a few damp and chilly days earlier this week.  I predict, with great confidence however, that within the next 6 weeks, we'll begin hearing complaints about how hot and humid it is, and how we just can't wait for things to cool off and Autumn to be here.  Just goes to prove that you can't please everyone, no matter what you do.

Big Bang...Big bust!

Just back from 6 days in beautiful, but congested, sunny southern California. My wife and I went out to visit our son and his fiancee (last time we'll see them before they get married). Weather was great. Traffic was horrendous. Fantastic food of every variety (Japanese, Korean, Mexican, Italian, and, of course, Carl's Jr. and In-N-Out Burger).

Biggest disappointment of all, however, was the taping of an episode of one of my favorite sitcoms, The Big Bang Theory. We had procured four tickets for the Tuesday evening taping. We were told to arrive at least one hour before the scheduled 6:30 showtime. Traffic between Venice and Burbank was unbelievable. Arrived at Warner Bros. studios at 5:50 PM. At first, we were turned away, but then put on the list as guests 125-128. Unfortunately, an unusually high number of guests on the VIP list meant that only 89 of the 128 ticket-holders got in to see the taping. We wound up leaving with a VIP card that can be used for any taping in the next year. So our "Big Bang" turned out to be a "big bust." We wound up poking around Burbank, then heading up to the Griffith Park Observatory to look at the moon through a telescope, and marvel at the city of Los Angeles at night, laid out below us like a twinkling blanket.

One more thing. While the "redeye" flight allows you to spend a full day in L.A. before coming home (a day which included some successful whale-watching from Point Vicente in Palos Verdes), you definitely pay the price on the day you get home.

Enough Already!

This looks to be an active week in the weather department here in Connecticut. Two major winter storms will be affecting the region between now and the upcoming weekend. The computer models that forecast weather systems are having fits trying to determine exactly where the storm tracks will be, and where the all-important rain/snow line will be.

Snow should develop overnight and we may see around an inch or so by morning. Things get interesting tomorrow, as temperatures rise to the upper 30s during the day. Expect a rain/snow mix here in central Connecticut, with more rain along the shoreline and more snow in the northwest hills. Wednesday might give us a bit of a break, but another storm system moves up the coast on Thursday. This second storm may pull in a little more cold air, which could set us up for a more significant snow accumulation. In addition, the models are forecasting the storm center to stall right over Connecticut, keeping us in stormy weather through most of Friday, and possibly into the early part of the weekend.

I know there's some warm air somewhere out there, but it doesn't look like it's coming this way anytime soon. At least baseball is being played in Florida and Arizona, so Spring is surely coming (but when?).

Back in Connecticut, But What A Day It Was!

After a wild, wild weekend in snowed-in Baltimore, we are finally back in Connecticut, just in time for a new snowstorm. Our flight back from Baltimore was cancelled this morning, and we were forced to take Amtrak to get back home in time for work tomorrow. The weekend storm deposited over two FEET of snow in the Federal Hill neighborhood of Baltimore, where my daughter, her husband and my granddaughter live. They've finally managed to dig out their cars, and now they are staring at another 10-12 inches of snow coming tomorrow afternoon and through the night tomorrow night. That would make this the snowiest winter in Baltimore history.

Here in Connecticut, the weekend storm left not a flake in the Hartford-New Britain region, but this new storm won't be so benevolent. Winter Storm Watches are already posted and they could be upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings tomorrow. The more northerly track of this new storm means New Yorkers could be digging out from a foot of snow by Wednesday morning, and some of that will likely be coming to central Connecticut. I've lived that last 32 years here in Connecticut, and 5 years before that in upstate New York, and I have never seen as much snow in one place as I did in Baltimore this past weekend.

Last week, I mentioned that February and March are normally the two snowiest months of the winter. It looks as if February is going to be living up to its reputation.

In the Teeth of the Blizzard

On Thursday, I posted a message relating to the El Nino effect taking storms out to sea south of Connecticut. That is happening right now as I write this. And it looks as if central Connecticut won't see any snow at all.

This weekend, my wife and I are visiting with my daughter, son-in-law and our 8-month old granddaughter. That's usually a great thing, and we always have fun with her. However, I should add that they live in Baltimore, and that's where I'm blogging from today--in the very center of the Blizzard of 2010. We arrived here yesterday on the last Southwest Airlines flight from Hartford to Baltimore before the remainder of their schedule was cancelled. The snow started around 3 PM and really picked up overnight. As of 11:45 AM today, Baltimore Airport has recorded 26.5 inches of snow, and it is still snowing heavily. It is very likely that the all-time record for a single snowstorm in Baltimore is 28.2 inches, and that will likely be broken.

While we are all safely indoors, the street that we are on is too narrow for a plow to get through, so we may be snowed in here for days. I hope not, but it's truly amazing to be a part of meteorological history.

Another Near Miss. What Did You Expect from El Nino?

For the second time this week, a major winter storm is, by and large, going to miss central Connecticut. Earlier in the week, a storm system moved out to sea to our south, dusting Connecticut with a little snow, but depositing some 4-5 inches in the D.C-Baltimore area (which, for them, is a lot of snow).

Then forecasters started talking up another storm, supposed to affect our weather by Friday and into the weekend. The computer models were all over the place, some taking the system close enough to Connecticut to give us a decent snowfall (what broadcasters like to call a "plowable" storm). Other models were taking a more southerly track. As the week progressed, the models seemed to zero in on the more southerly track, once again taking the bulk of the snow through the Mid-Atlantic states, and missing Connecticut. In fact, as I write this, it appears that the Baltimore-Washington region is looking at the potential for 12-20 inches of the white stuff from this latest storm. So why are all these storms missing the northeast?

Simply put, there is a strong El Nino ocean current in the Pacific Ocean. When this occurs, the upper level jet stream over North America splits into a northern branch and a southern branch; and the southern branch is usually quite strong. The strong southern branch of the jet stream is responsible for all the rain in southern California, as well as the stormy weather that south Florida has seen this winter. It also tends to steer winter storms out to our south.

So while we still have plenty of cold air to deal with, we've been fortunate (sorry, all you skiers and snowboarders) that there hasn't been that much snow so far. And, for good measure, the storm that was being talked up for Tuesday and Wednesday is now also looking to be a bust, going south once again. This time you CAN blame it all on El Nino.

Hi Ho, Hi Ho...

It's back to work we go.

After a semester break that began way back on December 19th, the Spring semester gets under way on Monday, January 25th. That's just too long a break in my book. There doesn't seem to be a good reason why classes could not have started up last Tuesday (the day after Martin Luther King Day).

I know that some students and faculty like the long winter break, but for me, I've had enough days at home, and am more than ready to return to the classroom, and the weather lab. This semester, I'm teaching the upper division Weather Analysis & Forecasting class. This is one of my favorites, as the students get a real taste for the theory and practice of weather forecasting. This includes a daily statistical weather forecasting competition, which requires students to forecast the high and low temperatures for the next day, as well as the actual amount of precipitation expected. Scores are kept, rankings are posted, and students who beat me over the course of the semester get a free lunch.

I don't get to forecast weather that much over the course of a normal semester, but this class keeps me sharp, as the students always give me a run for my money. I've given away more than my fair share of free lunches over the years and I expect this semester will be no exception.

Looks like the January Thaw will be coming to an end later this week, as temperatures take a tumble by week's end. The mild weather of the past week has made us forget that the worst of winter, climatologically speaking, is still ahead of us. February and March are normally the snowiest two months of the year, so if you think that there's no more snow to be had, think again. The best is yet to come.