I Hate Winter

One of the things that people living in the northern part of the U.S. like is the change of seasons. And certainly, the fall foliage display here in New England is a highlight of the year's weather that always takes one's breath away, no matter how many times it's experienced. And I would miss that difference between winter and spring, between spring and fall, and the crispness of a fall morning.

And while I admit that living in a southern location where it's warm all the time would be somewhat attractive, it would also be somewhat boring. Having said all that, I still have to say that I hate winter. By mid-December here in Connecticut, the leaves are off the trees, the lawns have turned to a dull shade of greenish-brown, and the skies are almost always gray. Sure, there are some crisp, sunny days thrown in here and there, but they seem to just tease you for a day or two before the relentless gray comes back again. And once the ground is covered with snow, even that little bit of ratty green disappears, not to be seen again until late March. And of course, there's no baseball.

Perhaps I'm just becoming older and more curmudgeonly. I have to admit that it's a distinct possibility.

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

I know, I know. The stock market is a mess. The economy is in shambles. There is terrorism, war and unrest all over the world. And yet, on Thanksgiving Day, we can all find something, no matter how small or insignificant, to be thankful for.

So, as you sit down to Thanksgiving Dinner with friends and family, take a moment to reflect on the good things that life has to offer you every day.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Talk About Stressful Weather...

A number of years ago, the National Weather Service used to release a Weather Stress Index to indicate the degree to which the weather would cause stress on the human body.  How that stress was defined was to compare the type of weather that would normally be expected for a particular time of year to the actual weather that was forecast to occur.  So, for example, a 90 degree day in Miami in September would be a lot less stressful than a 90 degree day in Minneapolis on the same day.  Conversely, a 40 degree day in Minneapolis in November would be a lot less stressful than a 40 degree day in Miami at any time.

We've certainly seen our share of weather stress this week in Connecticut (and much of the northeastern part of the U.S.).  At my home this morning, the mercury bottomed out at 14.8 degrees, more than 15 degrees colder than the normal low of 31 for this time of year.  And while today's normal high temperature is 48 degrees, we topped out here at 36.5 degrees.  And the cold is only getting stronger as we move into the upcoming weekend.  

To make matters personally worse, last weekend, my wife I visited our son, who lives in San Diego.  Three solid days of absolutely crystal clear skies and temperatures near 90 degrees were immediately followed by the cold, blustery weather we experienced as soon as we returned to Connecticut.  Now THAT'S stressful!

A Nice Day for All the Veterans

Somehow, it always seems that the weather turns out to be nice on Veteran's Day. And today is no exception, as the sun is shining here in Connecticut, and the mercury should get up to the low 50s this afternoon. Tomorrow looks great as well, with morning sunshine giving way to afternoon clouds. It will be on the cool side, however, as I don't expect we'll break the 50 degree mark tomorrow.

Things go downhill for the latter part of the week and into the weekend. A series of low pressure waves will bring rain (and maybe some snow to higher elevations) on Thursday and through much of Friday. Saturday and Sunday don't look much better, with clouds and the continuing chance of rain or showers.

While we may not agree with all the wars fought by this country in the recent past, we still need to honor those who have answered the call and put their lives on the line for our freedom. So if you know someone who has served, give them a tip of the hat today.

Yes We Can....Yes We Did!

Americans turned out in record numbers (largest percentage of eligible voters since 1908) to speak up for change in America yesterday. My thanks to all who took the time to make their voices heard.

In the words of the late President Gerald Ford, "My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over." And while it might be a cloudy day in Connecticut today, the sun is shining all over this great nation of ours. And the American beacon of hope, freedom and leadership is once again shining brightly all over the world.

Vote Today to Change America!

Please don't forget to vote today, if for no other reason than to honor and remember those who gave their lives so that you might still have that right.

This is our opportunity to take back America. Vote!

Nice Autumn Days

After all the rain, wind and cold we've experienced over the past week, it's nice to be able to forecast some nearly perfect Autumn weather for the upcoming weekend. Those of you with Friday off will have a great day, with perfectly clear skies, light winds and, although we'll get off to a chilly start, temperatures reaching up to near 60 in many inland locations across Connecticut.

Another frontal system will move through on Friday night, giving us some cloudy skies into early Saturday that should lead to partly cloudy skies by afternoon. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler on Saturday, with many areas topping off only around 50. Sunday looks like another beautiful day with lots of sunshine and highs in the 56-58 degree range.

If only there weren't so many leaves to rake....

A Chance to Change History, A Chance to Make History

As I write this, only 10 days remain until the 2008 Presidential Election. And in this election, Americans have a chance to change history and to make history at the same time. I remember when I first started voting, almost 40 years ago, that no one ever believed that a woman or an African-American would ever be elected President of the United States in our lifetimes. The history of our country would lead many to believe that we could never overcome the discrimination of our past and change the perception of the United States around the world.

Now we stand on the threshold of a history-making election. We can change that perception of America on November 4th by electing Senator Barack Obama of Illinois as our next President.

Sen. Obama has shown that he has the composure, and the intelligence to lead this country back to the greatness of the post World War II years. Those were times when the world knew that America stood for freedom and democracy around the world. President Kennedy realized that same thing when he started the Peace Corps in the 1960s. But the last eight years have seen our reputation sullied at the hands of the current administration. Our Constitution is under attack from within our own Executive branch. America's image is tarnished. Senator John McCain promises more of the same--an endless war in Iraq, and more tax cuts to the wealthiest one percent of Americans while the middle class continues to struggle with high health care costs, loss of retirement funds and foreclosures on homes. His choice of a completely unprepared running mate brings his judgment into serious doubt. We have a chance to move forward and regain our stature around the world, and to show the rest of the world that we can, indeed unite as one nation, and move beyond the past eight years into a new decade of leadership.

I support Barack Obama for President, and I hope that you will join with me in voting for him on November 4th.

The opinions stated in this blog are solely my own, and in no way represent the Physics-Earth Sciences Department or Central Connecticut State University.

Caribbean Vacations During Hurricane Season

Every summer, people wonder and worry about whether they should plan a Caribbean vacation during the months of August and September. After all, these are peak hurricane months in the tropics, and, while prices tend to drop on vacation packages, one always runs the risk of having a hurricane or tropical storm put a real damper on that much-anticipated vacation.

Here's something you should think about, if such a vacation is already in your plans for next summer. You might be better off booking a cruise vacation, than sticking with just one island. The major reason I say this is that when tropical weather threatens, a hotel cannot just pick up and move out of the way. A cruise ship, however, can alter course to avoid the bad weather entirely. And while that may sound like no big deal, it can completely change the nature of your vacation. For example, a couple of years ago, a major cruise line altered its planned itinerary for a cruise from New York to Bermuda. The island was in the potential path of a hurricane. So the captain, in consultation with the cruise line, decided to take the ship north to New England and Canada for the 7-day cruise. Needless to say, this raised howls of indignation from passengers, who had packed clothing in anticipation of tropical weather, and were now facing weather of a much cooler nature. Many threatened to sue the cruise line. But the fine print in the cruise contract left them with no legal recourse. The cruise line reserves the right to skip scheduled ports-of-call, or even change the itinerary altogether if, in the captain's opinion, the ship might be threatened by tropical storms or hurricanes. Most cruise lines, if they know in advance, will offer passengers the option to cancel and rebook at no charge. If the itinerary change is a last-minute affair, they will often give you some onboard credit to make up for the inconvenience. But be aware that they are under NO obligation to give you any sort of compensation for weather-related itinerary changes.

Having said that, you are still probably better off on a cruise ship that can avoid bad weather than on an island in the direct path of a major storm, with the airport shut down, and no way out.

The Blog Goes Political

If you've visited this blog before today, you've probably noticed that I list "Obama for America" as one of my favorite websites. So it's no secret who I'm supporting in the upcoming election (now just 29 days away). Aside from one message about Gov. Sarah Palin, I have steadfastly resisted posting any politically oriented opinions on this blog (as it has been, and still is, mostly about weather related topics).

However, with the nasty, negative turn that Sen. John McCain's campaign has now taken (and vows to continue right up till Election Day), I have to speak up. Sen. McCain had a nice post-convention bounce, and actually had a slight lead in polls coming out of the Republican National Convention. But instead of talking issues, his campaign turned to a series of out-and-out lies about Barack Obama and his (Obama's) positions. The result of that negative campaigning was a drop in support for McCain. Having seen that fail, McCain attempted to politicize the financial crisis in America, "suspending" his campaign to return to Washington and push the bailout package (which failed in the House after he became involved in the negotiations). The public and the press did not fall for this campaign stunt, so Sen. McCain did, in fact, debate Sen. Obama and lost that debate by a considerable margin. Last Thursday, Gov. Palin, while not self-destructing, as many expected, failed to convince many Independent and undecided voters that she is ready for the Vice Presidency (and, heaven help us, the White House). The McCain campaign has lost even more ground over the past few days.

Yesterday, the campaign announced that they would devote the remainder of the time before the election to attacking Sen. Obama's patriotism and honor. Those attacks began this morning with a new ad that paints Sen. Obama as "dangerous" and "dishonorable." Most of these attacks are, once again, based on more lies and deceptive video clips. Gov. Palin, over the weekend, accused Sen. Obama of "palling around with terrorists," and being "unlike most Americans." This morning, she commented on Sen. Obama's association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright, conveniently ignoring her own association with the Wasilla Bible Church, which recently hosted David Brickner, the head of Jews for Jesus, "a ministry that is out on the leading edge in a pressing, demanding area of witnessing and evangelism,” according to the Church's pastor Larry Kroons. According to Brickner, terrorist attacks on Israelis are God's "judgment of unbelief" of Jews who haven't embraced Christianity. "Judgment is very real and we see it played out on the pages of the newspapers and on the television. It's very real. When [Brickner's son] was in Jerusalem he was there to witness some of that judgment, some of that conflict, when a Palestinian from East Jerusalem took a bulldozer and went plowing through a score of cars, killing numbers of people. Judgment — you can't miss it."

The McCain campaign is out of ideas. They cannot debate on the issues, as they are completely out of step with the American public. So they attack Barack Obama and they will bring out all the old, disproven ideas (he's a Muslim, he went to a madrassa as a child, he won't wear an American flag pin, etc.) to scare voters into supporting McCain (a man who graduated 894th in a class of 899 at the U.S. Naval Academy).

I never thought this possible, but the McCain-Palin ticket is, in my opinion, even scarier than another four years of Bush-Cheney. And this won't be my last political post before Nov. 4th.
It should be interesting to see how tomorrow night's second Presidential Debate develops now that the tone of the campaign has changed so dramatically.

Mystique and Aura...Appearing Nightly

I went to my last game at Yankee Stadium yesterday afternoon. And there are so many memories I have of the "Cathedral of Baseball" that I thought I'd put some of them into words here. First, let me say that when the sun is shining and the sky is a beautiful shade of blue, that first view of the field as you walk up the runway and into the upper deck just takes your breath away. There is no other view like that in baseball, and I’ll miss it once the new stadium opens.

Also, in the ten years that I’ve been a partial season ticket holder, I’ve made lots of friends in the seats around me. None of us knows where we’re going to be seated next year, so we basically said goodbye yesterday.

As the game ended, I just stood at my seat, surveying the beautiful green grass down below, the view of the county courthouse beyond centerfield and the old Concourse Plaza Hotel at the crest of 161st St. in the distance, and realized I’d never be inside this old building again. That’s when my emotions actually got the best of me. A friend in the next seat had a tear running down his cheek.

But the sadness was mixed with the euphoria of a Yankee victory, and being lucky enough to once again hear the strains of “Enter Sandman” as the bullpen door opened and the greatest closer in the history of baseball emerged to do what he does better than anyone–shut down the opposition with a perfect ninth inning.

I’d love to be there tonight, but I consider myself very blessed to have seen so many great moments in Yankee Stadium and to have been able to share them with all 55,000 of my best friends…and the best fans in baseball. Those of you that were fortunate enough to see any of the 2001 World Series games at the Stadium will know exactly what the title of this blog entry means. Thanks for the memories.

Fighting the "Cry Wolf" Syndrome

Two weeks ago, in the face of the arrival of Hurricane Gustav, New Orleans officials ordered a mandatory evacuation, and told residents that if they did not leave, they were "on their own." Many residents complied and the city was a virtual ghost town by the time Gustav brushed past. Damage was nothing like that from Katrina, and many residents, upon returning, said the evacuation was unnecessary, and they would not leave again.
Obviously, those words were in the minds of many residents of the Galveston Bay area as Hurricane Ike approached the region last Saturday morning. By noon, some beachfront communities were completely cut off, as water levels had already risen past nine feet, submerging the only access roads. As it turns out, over 140,000 area residents did not evacuate, either choosing to ignore the advice of the National Weather Service, or being unable to leave for whatever reasons. The death toll from Ike has already topped 40 in Texas, with over 2000 having been rescued from their flooded or destroyed homes. Many felt the evacuation order was unnecessary and simply ignored it. Some undoubtedly lost their lives. Many more lost their homes. In the wake of the storm, many who stayed were quoted as saying, "next time, I'll leave," --the exact opposite of the reaction to Gustav in New Orleans.
The US Geological Survey has posted some "Before" and "After" photos of the Bolivar Peninsula (a particularly hard-hit area just east of Galveston). Almost all of the beachfront or near-beachfront homes here are completely gone, either blown or washed away by Ike's fury. Click here to see what's left.
How do we fight "Cry Wolf" Syndrome in the future? There are no clear answers. We live in a country where people are free to be as stupid as they like. But faced with an approaching catastrophe, we should think about choosing what former Hurricane Center Director Neil Frank used to call "the path of least regret."

Why Tell the Truth When Lying Works Just as Well?

When she was announced as John McCain's running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin said that she "told Congress 'thanks, but no thanks' on that Bridge to Nowhere." When she made her VP acceptance speech at the Republican Convention, she repeated the exact same line. And earlier today, at a campaign rally, she, once again, used the same line in her speech. By now, every news organization in the United States has reported that, in fact, she did not reject the Bridge to Nowhere. In fact, she supported it during her campaign for Governor. And, in fact, Congress had already dumped the idea well before she changed her mind. But she did take the money that had been earmarked for the bridge and used it in Alaska.

So the question remains...why is Governor Palin still lying about the Bridge to Nowhere? The answer is simple...if you tell a lie often enough, people might begin to believe it.

Just one person's opinion.

It Could Be Deja Vu All Over Again

At this hour, Hurricane Gustav is gaining strength once again, having cleared the northwestern tip of Cuba. It is a Category 4 hurricane, and could briefly become a Category 5 storm before weakening back to a Category 4 as it approaches the Louisiana coast. Even so, this is not good news for New Orleans.

Hurricane Katrina was a strong Category 3 hurricane when it passed just east of New Orleans on August 29, 2005. Gustav could be worse. The forecast track puts the storm just WEST of New Orleans on Monday. Such a track would put New Orleans on the stronger right-hand side of the storm's eye. That means that southerly and southeasterly winds of up to 140 mph will be sending huge amounts of water up the Mississippi River and into the heart of the city as the storm makes landfall. The flooding might be worse than it was three years ago.

A mandatory evacuation of the city has been ordered beginning at 8 AM on Sunday. City and state officials have informed the public that if they do not leave, they are effectively on their own. Over 2000 National Guard troops and 1400 police officers are already on duty in advance of the storm's arrival. The New Orleans Superdome will NOT be used as a "shelter of last resort" as it was in 2005.

If the storm does cause massive flooding and damage in New Orleans, it should result in a most interesting debate on how (and even whether) to rebuild the city in the wake of yet another devastating hurricane.

Greetings From the Beach

Hello from North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. My wife and I have been here since Monday, and in that time we've experienced a whole range of coastal weather. Daytime highs have been, for the most part, in the 90's with high humidity. And there hasn't been much relief on the beach as the intensity of sunlight (which heats the beach sand to temperatures too hot to walk on without shoes) has pretty much erased any effect of the daytime sea breeze.

Last night, the weather changed as a line of severe thunderstorms moved through. The lightning was quite impressive and there was a good soaking rain that persisted into the late night hours. This morning was a bit cooler and less humid than we've seen over the past four days. We've been fortunate that there have been no tropical weather systems affecting the east coast of the U.S. while we've been here.

But we're off to an active start to this year's tropical storm season, with five named storms already. The only piece of good news right now for the east coast and Gulf states is that the Pacific seems to be very active right now, and that often leads to a lack of activity in the Atlantic/Caribbean. But the most active part of the season still lies ahead (from late August through September) so there's still plenty of time for the Atlantic Ocean to produce some tropical weather.

Save on Gasoline by Paying Cash? Not Really.

Recently, the state of Connecticut enacted legislation that enabled gasoline stations around the state to offer savings to customers (usually around ten cents per gallon) who pay with cash, rather than using a credit card. Sounds like a good idea, right? Wrong. One must always operate on the assumption that businesses will always seek to maximize profits. Here's what I have observed so far.

On a local major commercial traffic strip, known as the Berlin Turnpike, there are a number of competing gas stations. Each offers fuel at the same price (currently around $4.19 per gallon for regular unleaded gas). However, a couple of these stations have begun offering a discount for cash. So, you think you might be able to save some money by paying in green? Forget it. The two stations that I have seen offering such a discount have raised the price of regular unleaded gas by 10 cents per gallon, to $4.29. Then they offer you a 10 cent per gallon cash discount, bringing the price back to $4.19 per gallon. So are cash customers saving money? No. But credit and debit card customers (and that's most of us, as the price of tankful of gas is more money than Donald Trump carries in his wallet) now get to pay 10 cents a gallon MORE than we did before. This is known as "highway robbery," or, in this case, "turnpike robbery."

To be fair, there are still plenty of gas stations that are not offering this so-called "cash discount." They still charge the going rate, whether you choose to pay with cash or plastic. Those are the stations that I tend to patronize. I don't like getting ripped off.

Is There Such a Thing as a Healthy Tan?

For years, I've been telling my students in Introductory Meteorology and Earth Science classes of the hazards of overexposure to Ultraviolet (UV) radiation. UV is a known cause of skin cancer and malignant melanoma (a particularly nasty and almost always fatal form of cancer).

Nevertheless, not a day goes by in a Summer Session class where I don't see students (usually female, but often guys as well) coming in with tans that are so dark that it makes me wonder whether they spend ANY time indoors. And my warnings to them about suntan and skin cancer seem to fall on deaf ears. I am particularly vocal when it comes to the subject of tanning salons. And now, my position has been supported in a column by Dr. Arthur Caplan of the University of Pennsylvania on the MSNBC website (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25378496/).

Dr. Caplan discusses how our society has made the tanned skin a desirable thing--a "healthy glow" as it were. Here's an excerpt from Dr. Caplan's column:

"A couple of high school students in my neighborhood recently told me they are getting ready to hit the beach this summer by tuning up their suntans inside tanning beds.

When I asked one of my colleagues here at Penn, Dr. William James, a professor of dermatology, if the high school students had the right idea about getting a head start on a tan, he laughed out loud. A tan, he said, represents nothing more than damage to the skin. It is the body trying to defend itself against an environmental hazard — too much UV light. In other words, indoor tanning gets you ready for the beach in the same way that getting scalded in a hot tub gets you ready to be boiled alive."

I have a relative who is a slave to the sun. He is younger than me, and always sports a dark tan, even in winter. But his skin is already beginning to show signs of aging--wrinkles, dark spots--that normally wouldn't appear for years. Overexposure to UV ages the skin prematurely, and robs it of its natural elasticity. And then, of course, there's that cancer thing.

In my opinion, anyone who spends money on tanning salons must be incredibly vain, stupid or both. And anyone who spends considerable time in the sun without using sunblock of AT LEAST SPF 15 (SPF 30 would be better) is asking for trouble down the line. Save your skin---skip the tanning bed.

Lots of Thunderstorms

It seems to me that we are experiencing more than our usual share of thunderstorms here in Connecticut this summer. Joe Brumbach's monumental 1965 work, The Climate of Connecticut tells us that most Connecticut thunderstorms occur in the northwest hills. Thunderstorm frequency drops off as one heads south and east towards the Rhode Island shoreline. The reason, ostensibly, is that cool breezes coming off Long Island Sound tend to stabilize the lower atmosphere near the shoreline, reducing the frequency of thunderstorms.

But this summer, the entire state seems to be getting a lot of thunderstorms. Over the past two weeks, it feels like there are storms across the state on an almost daily basis. The atmosphere has been unstable for quite awhile now, and it only takes a little local heating, or a weak cold front moving across the state to set off the fireworks.

So, is it global warming that's giving us all the thunderstorm activity? Who's to say. We've already had temperatures reach 99 degrees this month, far earlier than normal. But early June heat waves are not that uncommon here. I remember a doozy of a heat wave in early June of 1984. But one of the main features of the global warming model is an increase in extremes of weather, and a lot more storminess. I guess we'll just have to wait on this one. The jury is still out.

"Hartford" magazine: Don't bother

For the last few months, I've been receiving a copy of "Hartford" magazine in the mail. I'm not a subscriber, so I really don't know why it's been coming. And thank goodness I'm not, because, in my humble opinion, this "magazine" isn't worth the paper it's printed on.

Each month seems to bring a new round of "who's who and who's doing what" in the Hartford area. These are essentially photos of various Connecticut "celebrities" at parties around town. It's like the society page of the NY Times with lesser known names and in glossy color. I'm guessing that most of us couldn't care less.

The articles are more like advertisements than anything else. It seems as if each month brings another "Best of...." article. If it's not restaurants, it's dentists. If it's not dentists, it's physicians. If it's not physicians, it's "Best Towns to Raise Children." I'll tell you this. If I were a dentist or physician in the area, I'd be pretty upset about these types of articles. They seem to be nothing more than popularity contests, and often leave very good and very qualified practitioners out. Add to that the fact that the article pages are often surrounded by ads for various medical and dental offices, and it leads one to wonder just how "objective" these puff pieces are.

About the only thing worthwhile is the monthly restaurant listing. Some of the eateries are reviewed, others are not. And advertisements also appear on the same pages as restaurant ratings. But at least I know the addresses and phone numbers of places I might want to dine at.

So if you're not getting this mag for free, as I assume most others such as myself are, don't waste your money buying it. Better to visit the local public library, where you can peruse it at no charge.

A Perfect Holiday Weekend

Growing up here in the northeast, my family and I used to venture to the Catskills for most Memorial Day weekends. And it always seemed that there would be at least one rainy day over the course of the holiday. Not this year, however. In fact, the weather has improved each day through the holiday weekend, capping off with a great day today, with temperatures reaching the low 80s everywhere in Connecticut but the shoreline (where the sea breeze off the cool L.I. Sound will keep the temperatures only in the 70s).

What else might make the weekend perfect? How about a sixth Yankee win in a row this afternoon in Baltimore? Combined with a typical Red Sox West Coast trip (disaster in Oakland), the Yankees are finally gaining ground on the Sox. The only problem is that the Tampa Bay Rays haven't yet realized who they are, and are playing lights out. This could only happen in the Bizarro World.

Subway Series Game 1--Rained Out

I had hoped that the Yankees and Mets could get Friday night's game at Yankee Stadium in, between the raindrops around the northeast tonight. Unfortunately, it was not to be. That probably means that the matchup between the Yankees' Darrell Rasner and the Mets' Johann Santana will be pushed back to tomorrow afternoon.

That's a good thing, as I'll be at the game and it should be quite a matchup. Both teams are struggling right now, as their offenses continue to sputter along. The Mets are without Pedro Martinez and El Duque Hernandez, while the Yankees' rotation hasn't been looking great lately, and both Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada remain on the Disabled List.

Tomorrow's weather should be a little better for baseball, with mixed clouds and sun, and the chance of some scattered showers or thundershowers later in the afternoon, and temperatures around 70 degrees. As a diehard Yankee fan, I'm hoping for some late afternoon lightning, but mostly from Yankee batters, not from the weather.

Of Earthquakes, Hurricanes and Tornadoes

It's been an active tornado season in the U.S. midwest so far this year. Yesterday, more tornadoes struck in Oklahoma, where at least 22 were killed. Earlier today, an earthquake of Richter Magnitude 7.8 struck near the city of Chengdu, in the Sichuan province of China (approximately 900 miles from Beijing). As I write this, at least 9000 have been confirmed dead. The death toll will likely rise much higher, as the last time a quake of 7.6 or higher struck central China was in 1976, and 240,000 people died. The area around today's quake is home to 10,000,000 people, and, in at least one community, some 80% of the buildings have been destroyed. School children have been reported buried in the rubble of their own schools, which collapsed on top of them.

Last week, the world watched as a strong hurricane, Cyclone Nargis (hurricanes are called "cyclones" in the Indian Ocean), swept through the country of Myanmar (formerly known as Burma), killing at least 100,000. Natural disasters make us aware that we live on a dynamic, ever changing planet. We must not forget that we can never control the forces of nature, but we can do our part to protect ourselves from the worst of them.

In the face of so many people killed, injured, or left homeless, it almost seems petty to carry on about the rising price of a gallon of gasoline. We may not like the military government of Myanmar, or the repressive regime in China, and we may have political differences with the voters in the midwestern U.S., but the individuals who live in those places, and who have been affected by these disasters are human beings, just like us, and they certainly deserve our sympathy and our aid.

You can help by visiting www.redcross.org and supporting the relief efforts of the American Red Cross, both at home and abroad. Thanks.

Finally, Some Much Needed Rain

There hasn't been any measurable precipitation at Bradley International Airport since April 12th. That's 15 days without any rain. During that time, the grass has sprung up and turned green, and most trees have blossomed, throwing tons of pollen into the air. Allergy sufferers have been miserable for the past two weeks, without a cleansing rainfall to remove all that pollen from the air.

Time to rejoice! The next day or two should see some significant rainfall across the state. That should wash much of the pollen away, but it comes at a price. Temperatures will be a lot cooler than we've gotten used to over the past two weeks. The sun should return by mid-late week and temperatures will be a lot closer to normal.

Unfortunately, the rain will invigorate all those lawns, and that means we'll be spending more time behind the lawn mower in the next few weeks.

It's Allergy Season!

Connecticut has a reputation as a state that brings out the worst in people's allergies. When my wife and I moved here in 1978, we found a whole new bunch of allergies we never had while living in New York.

As winter rolled into spring over the past month, I found myself wondering when the buds would start popping on the trees in my backyard, and when the grass would finally start to green up. This last week of sunny, warm weather seems to have pushed both the grass and the trees to move into full pollen mode. And while the new green on the branches and on the ground looks really nice against the blue sky of spring, it's becoming hard to see the colors through my increasingly itchy, watery eyes.

Nevertheless, it's a ritual I've lived through for many years now, and I know that in a few weeks (a few miserable weeks, I might add) all the trees will be in full bloom, and all the grass will have sprouted, and the allergy season will die down until late summer, when the ragweed blooms and the hay fever season begins.

Well, it's almost time to mow the lawn. Now where did I put that pollen mask?

96 Years Ago Today...

April 15th for most people brings visions of long lines at the Post Office, as many of us scurry to get our tax returns posted before midnight tonight (did you put if off until now?). But for a lot of people, April 15th means more than just tax day.

96 years ago last night, at 11:40 PM, the most opulent passenger ship of its time, the R.M.S. Titanic, struck an iceberg and began taking on water. In less than three hours, at 2:20 AM, the largest moving object ever created by man (at that time) disappeared beneath the waters of the North Atlantic. The ship took over 1500 souls with it. Of 2207 people on board, only around 705 survived.

Weather played a significant factor in the Titanic disaster. It was a perfectly clear night, with no wind at all and no moon. The lack of moonlight made it difficult to see icebergs at a distance. In addition, the lack of wind meant that there were no waves at all. Under normal conditions, waves lapping up on the bottom of an iceberg make it easier to see. Thus the men in the crow's nest did not see the iceberg until it was too late, and at the speed the Titanic was moving, it wasn't possible to dodge the ice. The ship struck the iceberg a glancing blow.

Now we learn, according to yesterday's New York Times, that a new book shows that the builders of the Titanic may have used substandard iron and rivets in its construction, thus causing the bow plates to pop open when they struck the ice. If the iron plates and rivets had been stronger, the e damage might have been less and the ship might have stayed afloat longer, or even survived the collision entirely.

Historians have always been fascinated by the Titanic story and all its aspects. Now, on the 96th anniversary of the world's greatest peacetime maritime disaster, they have something new to think (and write) about.

The Ten Best Days of the Year

It's a gorgeous day in Connecticut today. Warm (near 70 degrees F), hardly a cloud in the sky and a pleasant northwesterly breeze. In fact, I'm inclined to say that this might be one of "the 10 best days of the year." Local weathercasters have been using that term whenever the weather is nearly perfect. In fact, there may actually be more than 10 such days in a given calendar year. So how does one decide when such an award is justified? Easy. You realize it as soon as you step outside.

The air smells sweet, the birds are singing, the sun is out. The temperature is perfect. You'd like to spend the entire day outdoors, playing in the park with your dog, taking a nice long bicycle ride, or enjoying a walk with your significant other. The 10 Best Days of the Year can't be defined. You just know it. And believe me, for those of you who are not in central Connecticut today, this is definitely one of the 10 best days of the year.

Now if only theYankees would start hitting....

The Transition Season

Spring has always been known as the "transition" season, where we go from the cold and snow of Winter, to the heat and humidity of Summer. Naturally, there are extremes to be experienced along the way. The last couple of days, along with the next few should highlight what that transition is all about.

Last night, here in Connecticut, between 9 PM and 11 PM, we experienced one of the more spectacular cold frontal passages that you might ever want to see. A narrow band of severe thunderstorms crossed the state during those hours, bringing and end to temperatures that had reached the 60s in many locations. Heavy rains, strong winds, and frequent, intense lightning strikes were the order of the evening as the front came through, producing some flash flooding in portions of the state.

This morning, the sun is shining, but it is nearly 20 degrees cooler than it was yesterday. The nice weather will last through a good part of Thursday before the next round of stormy weather moves in on Friday. Looks like plenty of rain for the northeast on Friday, that will last through much of the night before moving east on Saturday.

And then the sun will make an appearance by Saturday afternoon, and should be with us through the remainder of the weekend. New England weather has always had a reputation for changeability, and we are seeing some classic examples of that as we move through this first part of Spring.

It "feels" like Spring

Now that CCSU students are back from Spring Break, and the baseball season begins on Sunday night, the unofficial signs of Spring are all around us. But does it "feel" like Spring? For many, that's a difficult question to answer because there's no way to define what Spring "feels" like.

For me, the temperature is not the deciding factor. We've had a few days in the past week where the temperature has reached the upper 50's. And there hasn't been any snow in Connecticut in awhile, so any "winter-like feel" is most assuredly gone.

So why does it feel like Spring? I guess it's because the crocuses are out, there are some patches of green on the front lawn, and the robins and rabbits are all around my backyard. For me, this is a great time of year. We come out of the long, gray, winter, and colors start to appear everywhere. And there's a fresh scent to the air in the early morning that hasn't been around since early September.

Lots of Rain, Lots of Snow

Winter may be winding down, but don't tell that to the folks in central Ohio this afternoon. Many of them, in places such as Cincinnati and Columbus, are digging out from over 20 inches of snowfall yesterday. They were, unfortunately, on the cold side of this latest winter storm system that is now moving into the Gulf of Maine. With northerly winds and temperatures below freezing, the moisture that fell on the western side of the low pressure center was all in the form of snow.

Here in Connecticut and along the eastern seaboard, we were on the milder, eastern side of the storm, with southerly winds bringing mild air up from the south. As a result, all the precipitation that fell here yesterday was in the form of rain, and we had plenty of it. Bradley Airport officially checked in with 1.68 inches of rain, but some locations in the state received up to three inches of rainfall. On top of rain we had earlier in the week, and the fact that much of the ground in Connecticut is still frozen, most of that water has drained into rivers and streams, which are now going over their banks. Flood warnings are in effect for many central and northern Connecticut towns through Monday.

And just to make the skiers feel even worse, if this storm had been all snow instead of all rain, we would be digging out from 15-20 inches of the white stuff. I've had lots of people tell me that this has been a relatively snow-free winter in Connecticut. While that may be the feeling among many, that actually hasn't been the case. As of today, Bradley International Airport has had 47. 5 inches of snow so far this season. That's 8.2 inches more than normal for the winter thus far, and is almost four times as much snow as we had at this time a year ago. It may not be over yet. We've had a number of significant snowstorms in early April in years past, so I wouldn't put the snow shovels away just yet.

Spring is Finally Here

The temperature outside this evening is in the mid-20s. There's still about 2 inches of snow in parts of my backyard. So how can I say that spring is here, especially when the calendar says that it doesn't officially begin until 1:48 AM EDT on March 20th? That's easy. The late Bart Giamatti, former President of Yale University wrote, in 1977,

"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone."
-Source: The Green Fields of the Mind (Yale Alumni Magazine, November 1977)

Today saw the first telecasts of Spring Training baseball games here in Connecticut. Both the Boston Red Sox, and my own beloved New York Yankees played exhibition games today that were shown live on local TV. For me, that represents the true end of winter, and the calendar be damned

In 1984, Washington Post columnist Thomas Boswell wrote that "time begins on Opening Day." For the Yankees, that's just 29 days from today.

Meyer's Law

As a graduate student in the Atmospheric Sciences at SUNY Albany, we were taught many "rules of thumb" that had been developed over the years. Two that come to mind are "Henry's Rule" and "Rosenbloom's Law," both of which have to do with the movement of low pressure systems. Most of my NWS forecaster colleagues are well aware of these "laws."

However, there is one law that almost no one knows. It's called "Meyer's Law." It was actually developed by a contemporary of mine when I was in Albany. Mike Meyer (no relation to the guy who played Dr. Evil in the Austin Powers films) was an undergrad in the Meteorology program while I was a grad student. One day, he came to me and said that he had developed a rule that seemed to work well. He said that it seemed to him, that after a significant snowstorm, there wouldn't be another one until most, if not all, of the snow from the first storm had melted. Silly as it seems, over the years, Meyer's Law seems to work more often than not (although I admit there is no scientific proof that this is, in fact, the case).

So now that all the snow on the ground in Connecticut has melted, Meyer's Law says it's time for another snowstorm. And, as I write this entry, it's snowing outside, and we're expecting 4-8 inches of new snow by late tonight. Of course, lots of people think that by the time we get to late February, the chances of snow are decreasing. In fact, February and March have traditionally been the two snowiest months of the year in Connecticut. Most of the memorable blizzards of years past have occurred in February and March.

So while you're shoveling your walkway, or plowing out the driveway later today or tomorrow morning, remember that, according to Meyer's Law, there won't be another snowstorm until the snow from this one has melted away.

Snow and Ice and Water Everywhere

As I write this, at 4:30 PM, we continue to get heavy rain across much of the state. Last night saw some 3 inches of snow fall in the Hartford area, followed by an extensive period of freezing rain, followed by a day of heavy rain that isn't over yet. The NWS says we've already had between 2 and 3 inches of rainfall today. Our rain gauge here on campus (which is not heated) has 1.60 inches of rain as of this moment, and there is still likely some snow and ice on the bucket which hasn't yet melted and flowed in.

Here in our building, on the Fifth floor, water is dripping through the ceilings from the roof above. Our copy/fax machine room is out of commission, as we've had to move both machines out of the way of dripping water. I won't be surprised to hear about some flat roofs in Connecticut giving way under the combined weight of all that snow, ice and rain.

On top of all that, temperatures tonight should drop below freezing, and that means a lot of puddles and ponded water is going to freeze up before morning. Should make for an adventurous morning commute tomorrow on many interior Connecticut roadways. Drive carefully, everyone.

Just one more thing. It looks like we're in for another heavy rain storm late Saturday and into Sunday. And this cold, stormy pattern shows no sign of letting up for at least the next week or so.

Don't Let the Sunshine Fool You

The sun is shining in Connecticut this morning, but gloom and doom dominate the forecast. And there's no need to overhype the storm that's on its way. Snow should break out across the state during the late afternoon hours, and, with plenty of cold air embedded in the lower atmosphere, it will take a while to change the snow over to an even messier mix of sleet and freezing rain overnight.

The evening rush won't be that bad, as there won't be that much snow on the ground yet, but tomorrow morning's commute will be tough for those of us not along the immediate shoreline. Freezing rain will persist for a while before temperatures finally push up above freezing, and a steady, often heavy rain falls tomorrow. With a few inches of snow, then ice, then rain, the possibility of urban and poor drainage flooding is very real.

And yet, that sunshine is still right there outside my window. I've never seen such changeable weather anywhere else, except maybe in those classic Warner Bros. cartoons. I'm sure some of you know what I'm talking about.

The flu has arrived at my house

It's flu season around much of the United States. As I was watching CNN's coverage of presidential primaries and caucuses this afternoon, a weather cut-in noted that only Florida and Maine have managed to avoid widespread outbreaks of the flu so far this year. The report also noted that this year's flu vaccine is only effective against two of the three strains seen in the U.S. this season. Needless to say, neither my wife nor myself got a flu shot this year, and, of course, my wife seems to have come down with the dreaded influenza virus. Aches, pains, congestion and a 103 fever have thrown her for a loop. And unless I'm unusually lucky, I'll probably come down with it sooner rather than later (something to look forward to).

It would be interesting to see how many of the flu cases being reported are among people who DID take the flu shot this year. In any event, we are stuck indoors on this cold and snowy evening, and, with temperatures struggling to reach the low 30s Sunday and Monday, it's probably just as well.

Is that the Sun I see?

It seems as if we haven't seen any sunshine for at least the last five days or so. It's been one storm system after another, passing across Connecticut bringing us rain, sleet, freezing rain--what The Weather Channel likes to call a "wintry mix."

We may actually get a short-lived break from the dreary weather on Friday afternoon. There might be a bit of sunshine, and clear skies on Friday night before another round of clouds and wintry precipitation moves in for later Saturday and into a bit of Sunday as well. Climatologically speaking, we should now be coming out of the depths of winter as the days grow longer and the temperatures begin their slow climb. But, as I've pointed out before, there's still plenty of winter to get through before we can dream of days on the beach.

The biggest question plaguing us these days, however, is this...who's not telling the truth, Roger Clemens, or his former trainer, Brian McNamee? We report, you decide. Meanwhile, there's just seven days until Spring Training begins. Now for me, that's when winter really ends.

Of Winter Weather and Sweeps Month

February, for those of you who are unfamiliar with the workings of TV ratings, is sweeps month. Sweeps periods occur in February, May and November of each year. During those months, national networks, as well as local TV stations closely monitor viewership to determine which programs (and local newscasts) people are watching. From that data, the networks determine which shows get renewed or cancelled, and the local stations determine how much they can charge for advertising revenue, based on viewership.

Local TV stations often put interesting news stories or features on during sweeps months, which they promote during prime time programming. You may notice a trend toward stories that have a "must watch" theme. And, just in time for the weather departments, winter is poised to return to the region. That means that local weathercasters around the northeast will promote long range forecasts of potential winter weather with a bit more urgency.

The latest round of National Weather Service computer forecasts is indicating that a significant blast of Arctic air will be moving into the region by Sunday, and should stick around for a few days. That means that daytime temperatures will likely only reach the mid-20's on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, with overnight lows in the upper single digits or low 10's. On top of all that, the longer range forecasts are pointing to a potential winter storm for the 19th of the month. Bear in mind, however, that forecasts that far in advance often change drastically by the time that day actually rolls around, so take those inevitable gloom and doom forecasts with a healthy grain of salt for the time being.

Nobody's Perfect

What a remarkable finish to last night's Superbowl XLII (and when are we going to stop numbering these Superbowls? I mean, would anyone actually be able to remember who won World Series LXVIII if baseball were using the same idiotic numbering scheme?) As a born and raised New Yorker, I couldn't be happier for the Giants this morning, especially after all those predictions of a 41-17 Patriots blowout. Congratulations to Big Blue this morning.

I wish we could catch a weather break, but this doesn't look like the week to get it. The stormy weather pattern looks like it will persist through much of this week. We might see some sunshine on Thursday, but for the most part, lots of clouds and precipitation, and most of it appears as if it will be rain rather than snow. And for those of you who think that winter might be over by now, remember that February and March are, climatologically speaking, the two snowiest months of the year.

Groundhog Day!!

Good morning! Today is Groundhog Day, as most of you already know. The legend of the weatherwise woodchuck dates back to the early 1840's in Morgantown, PA. According to the story, when the groundhog comes out of its burrow on Candelmas Day (February 2nd), if it sees its shadow, then it will duck back underground, and winter will continue for six more weeks. If it's cloudy, and there's no shadow, then the groundhog will stay out, and Spring will arrive early.

The most famous of all groundhogs is, of course, Punxsutawney Phil, made even more famous by the 1993 Bill Murray film, "Groundhog Day!" There are plenty of other local groundhogs around the country that make similar predictions. Groundhog Day fans claim an accuracy rate of up to 90%, but the National Climatic Data Center, along with a study of 13 cities done in Canada, both agree that the accuracy rate is closer to 39%.

So, will Winter end early this year? Probably not, if you go by the groundhog prediction, as it is sunny this morning across the northeast, so Phil will almost assuredly see his shadow. So even if the weather remains winterlike for the next few weeks, we can at least enjoy the 45-50 degree temperatures that are on tap for today in Connecticut.

Oh, and one more thing....GO BIG BLUE!!!

What an Unwinterlike Winter in Connecticut

As I post this, it's raining heavily here in central Connecticut. We've had over 25 inches of snow so far this winter, but most of that snow fell in the early days of December along with one storm in January that was forecast to bring a foot or so, but only produced around six inches. There won't be much snow left on the ground after today, as the rain is washing most of what has been there away.

It's been an unusual winter in that, while the overall weather pattern has been stormy, the general storm track has been to our west. Only a few strong secondary storms have formed off the eastern seaboard, and, for the most part, they've been too far south or east to bring us the heavy snow. Outlooks for next few weeks seem to continue the pattern of strong storm systems moving northeast, but west of Connecticut, leaving us on the warm side, and bringing lots of rain, instead of lots of snow.

But don't forget that the atmosphere has a way of balancing things out. While we've been getting lots of rain around here, locations in the Midwest, such as Chicago have been seeing a lot of snow over the past few weeks. As I'm not a skier, I say, "let them keep it."

A Book Worth Reading

I just finished reading "Storm World," by Chris Mooney (Harcourt, Inc, 2007). It's a look into the raging debate on the potential effect of global warming on hurricane intensity. I found it particularly interesting, as I know many of the main characters in the book, and have had the opportunity to hear them speak at conferences and symposia.

Mooney begins by looking at the last few hurricane seasons, and how hurricane research has become far more popular among meteorologists since the 2005 season, which featured Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. He explores the beginnings of the idea that a warmer ocean would produce stronger hurricanes, and he spends a lot of time with Dr. Bill Gray, of Colorado State University, one of the country's foremost hurricane forecasters, and a global warming skeptic.
He also spends a great deal of time looking into the politics behind NOAA's official position that hurricane intensity increases are the result of a natural climatic cycle (the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) rather than any global warming contribution.

At first, it's hard to tell which side of the climate argument Mooney is on, but by book's end, he makes it clear that he is on the side of researchers such as Kerry Emanuel of MIT, and Kevin Trenberth of NCAR, who have argued that climate models indicate that a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could lead to a half-category increase (on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale) in hurricane strength.


I must admit that Mooney makes convincing arguments for the work of Emanuel, Trenberth and others, and presents them with very little bias. If you are wavering on whether global warming might be linked to weather events now and in the future, I suggest you give this book a read.