Had Enough Yet?

This winter of 2010-2011 is certainly going to be one that I'll remember for a long time.  In the 33 years I've been living in Connecticut, I cannot remember a two-week period (from the 12th to the 26th of January) in which so much snow has fallen (and is forecast to fall) and it has been so cold.  Since the first of January, Bradley International Airport has seen over 41 inches of snow.  Adding to the 14 inches recorded in December of 2010, that brings us to around 55-56 inches of snow so far this winter.  By the way, the normal snowfall for an ENTIRE winter is 45.3 inches.  So we've already surpassed by over 10 inches the total we might normally expect for an entire winter season.  And January isn't even over yet.  Bear in mind that normally, February is the snowiest month of the year.  I can hardly wait....

Add to that the persistent cold weather so far this month.  After starting off the new year with a 51 degree reading on January 1st, there haven't been many days where the temperature has risen above the freezing mark.  Since January 2nd, there have only been six days that got above the 32 degree mark.  On the 14th and 15th we had overnight low temperatures of 3 degrees above, and 6 degrees BELOW zero, respectively.  I personally have over two feet of snow on the ground at my house, and it shows no signs of melting (except into my roof and down through the ceiling of my family room).  The forecast for the next few days features temperatures that will reach 5 to 10 BELOW zero at night and struggle to make 20 degrees during the day.  Adding to that, there is a possibility of yet another major snowstorm on Wednesday of next week (the 26th) that could add to the already outrageously high piles of snow on the ground.

What could possibly explain why I still live and work here in the northeast?

A Continent Apart

I have two children, both married.  They live on opposite sides of the country.  My son and his wife live in Los Angeles, having moved there in the summer of 2008.  My daughter and her husband (along with my cute little granddaughter) live in Baltimore, in the area where they both went to college.  As you can imagine, this makes whole family get-togethers somewhat problematical.

As you might expect, I see the Baltimore side of the family much more often than the Los Angeles side.  I find this somewhat upsetting, as it almost seems as if I favor my daughter over my son.  That isn't the case at all.  But I do find that the distance to my son and daughter-in-law makes it seem as if I hardly know them since they got married.  My wife and I try to get out there at least twice a year, and we try to get them to come east at least twice a year, but it still doesn't help get rid of the disconnect that is always there.  While I talk to my son on the phone or via e-mail regularly, it's not nearly the same as seeing him and his wife face-to-face. My wife and I both miss him terribly.  It's always a sad scene when we have to go home and the long airplane flight can be tough on both us us.  They are planning to move back east at some point, but there's no real timetable for that right now.

However, it looks as if we will be getting the entire family together in Baltimore during the winter.  This should be a fun time for all of us, as my son and his wife haven't seen their niece since last May and she's really changed.  At the same time, I worry about the weather.  Last February, my wife and I went down to Baltimore to visit, and we got snowed in by a record storm--30 inches of snow in a 36 hour period.  While that is a once-in-a-lifetime snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic states, you never know when it could happen again.  Hopefully, it won't happen again THIS winter.

Bring on the Twins!

One thing about post-season baseball that can't always be factored in to predictions is the weather.  For example, a lot of New York Yankee fans are worried about facing the Minnesota Twins in the American League Division Series out in Minneapolis.  While this may seem to be a rehash of last year's ALDS, there is one major difference.  Last year, the games in Minnesota were played in the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, a large, loud enclosed stadium, insulated from the effects of the weather outside (it actually snowed during one of the games).  This year, the Twins opened a brand new ballpark, Target Field.  It's a good old-fashioned outdoor ballpark with no protection from the October weather.

Fortunately, the forecast is calling for better weather in Minneapolis than in New York.  Daytime temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday in the Twin Cities should reach the 70 degree mark. Game time temperatures should be in the low 60's.  Considering that there will be rain and chilly temperatures in New York tomorrow and Thursday, the lords of Major League Baseball are probably thrilled that the ALDS is opening in Minneapolis rather than in New York.  And to make things even better, the forecast for the weekend in New York (for games 3 and, if necessary, 4) is also calling for fair and mild weather.  That's all that any true baseball fan could ask for--a series in which weather won't be a major factor.  Play ball!

Misery--Week 2

If you've been reading my occasional blog entries, then you already know that I am a rabid Yankee fan with a Saturday season ticket package.  Tomorrow, I'll be attending my second straight game in two weeks.  Last week was an interesting day.  It began with the 64th Annual Old Timers' Day, followed by a truly horrific Yankee performance against the Tampa Bay Rays (a 10-5 loss).  And as if that weren't bad enough, it was a hot and humid day in the Bronx.  Even though my seats are under the Grandstand overhang, in the shade, it was still uncomfortably warm and I was miserable by the time I got home.

Tomorrow promises even more misery.  The warm front that brought the persistent rain to Connecticut today will likely push north and east of the region overnight, leaving us in the pressure cooker for tomorrow.  This could be one of the most uncomfortable days of the summer.  Temperatures will be pushing well into the 90s with dew points reaching the mid-70s.  What does that mean?  Let's just say that when the dew point reaches 70 degrees, the air is already oppressively humid.  When it exceeds 75, as it might tomorrow, we are looking at tropical rainforest levels of humidity.  Combined with the high temperatures, it will most likely feel more like 105 degrees tomorrow afternoon.

With some 48,000 other fans to surround me, I guess it just proves that misery really does love company.  The only thing that might make it a bit more palatable is that Alex Rodriguez might hit homerun #600 tomorrow (unless he does it tonight).  Despite what most people believe, baseballs travel farther in hot, humid weather than in hot, dry weather.  So there's a chance that the crowd's collective misery might be turned into a grand celebration in the Bronx tomorrow.  Here's hoping...

Another Semester Coming to an End

Today is supposed to be a Reading Day on campus, as students prepare for their Final Exams next week.  Yet, here I am, conducting a Lab exercise in my Introduction to Meteorology class with 11 students in attendance.  We needed to use this day as a make-up for a missed Thursday lab, so here we are, all wishing we could be someplace else.

The next month will be somewhat hectic for me, as my son is getting married on Memorial Day weekend, and my granddaughter will soon be celebrating her first birthday.  Sandwiched between those momentous occasions will be prep time for my Summer Session courses, and a couple of trips to Yankee Stadium to watch my beloved Bronx Bombers take on the Red Sox and Twins.  The first of those two games is this Saturday, and the weather looks to be ideal, with sunny skies and temperatures in the low 70's.  

We've become somewhat spoiled by the warmer than normal Spring weather in Connecticut, so people seem to be disappointed if the mercury doesn't reach the 80 degree mark.  However, normal highs for this time of year should be in the low 70's so we are right where we should be.  Feels nice after a few damp and chilly days earlier this week.  I predict, with great confidence however, that within the next 6 weeks, we'll begin hearing complaints about how hot and humid it is, and how we just can't wait for things to cool off and Autumn to be here.  Just goes to prove that you can't please everyone, no matter what you do.

Big Bang...Big bust!

Just back from 6 days in beautiful, but congested, sunny southern California. My wife and I went out to visit our son and his fiancee (last time we'll see them before they get married). Weather was great. Traffic was horrendous. Fantastic food of every variety (Japanese, Korean, Mexican, Italian, and, of course, Carl's Jr. and In-N-Out Burger).

Biggest disappointment of all, however, was the taping of an episode of one of my favorite sitcoms, The Big Bang Theory. We had procured four tickets for the Tuesday evening taping. We were told to arrive at least one hour before the scheduled 6:30 showtime. Traffic between Venice and Burbank was unbelievable. Arrived at Warner Bros. studios at 5:50 PM. At first, we were turned away, but then put on the list as guests 125-128. Unfortunately, an unusually high number of guests on the VIP list meant that only 89 of the 128 ticket-holders got in to see the taping. We wound up leaving with a VIP card that can be used for any taping in the next year. So our "Big Bang" turned out to be a "big bust." We wound up poking around Burbank, then heading up to the Griffith Park Observatory to look at the moon through a telescope, and marvel at the city of Los Angeles at night, laid out below us like a twinkling blanket.

One more thing. While the "redeye" flight allows you to spend a full day in L.A. before coming home (a day which included some successful whale-watching from Point Vicente in Palos Verdes), you definitely pay the price on the day you get home.

Enough Already!

This looks to be an active week in the weather department here in Connecticut. Two major winter storms will be affecting the region between now and the upcoming weekend. The computer models that forecast weather systems are having fits trying to determine exactly where the storm tracks will be, and where the all-important rain/snow line will be.

Snow should develop overnight and we may see around an inch or so by morning. Things get interesting tomorrow, as temperatures rise to the upper 30s during the day. Expect a rain/snow mix here in central Connecticut, with more rain along the shoreline and more snow in the northwest hills. Wednesday might give us a bit of a break, but another storm system moves up the coast on Thursday. This second storm may pull in a little more cold air, which could set us up for a more significant snow accumulation. In addition, the models are forecasting the storm center to stall right over Connecticut, keeping us in stormy weather through most of Friday, and possibly into the early part of the weekend.

I know there's some warm air somewhere out there, but it doesn't look like it's coming this way anytime soon. At least baseball is being played in Florida and Arizona, so Spring is surely coming (but when?).

Back in Connecticut, But What A Day It Was!

After a wild, wild weekend in snowed-in Baltimore, we are finally back in Connecticut, just in time for a new snowstorm. Our flight back from Baltimore was cancelled this morning, and we were forced to take Amtrak to get back home in time for work tomorrow. The weekend storm deposited over two FEET of snow in the Federal Hill neighborhood of Baltimore, where my daughter, her husband and my granddaughter live. They've finally managed to dig out their cars, and now they are staring at another 10-12 inches of snow coming tomorrow afternoon and through the night tomorrow night. That would make this the snowiest winter in Baltimore history.

Here in Connecticut, the weekend storm left not a flake in the Hartford-New Britain region, but this new storm won't be so benevolent. Winter Storm Watches are already posted and they could be upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings tomorrow. The more northerly track of this new storm means New Yorkers could be digging out from a foot of snow by Wednesday morning, and some of that will likely be coming to central Connecticut. I've lived that last 32 years here in Connecticut, and 5 years before that in upstate New York, and I have never seen as much snow in one place as I did in Baltimore this past weekend.

Last week, I mentioned that February and March are normally the two snowiest months of the winter. It looks as if February is going to be living up to its reputation.

In the Teeth of the Blizzard

On Thursday, I posted a message relating to the El Nino effect taking storms out to sea south of Connecticut. That is happening right now as I write this. And it looks as if central Connecticut won't see any snow at all.

This weekend, my wife and I are visiting with my daughter, son-in-law and our 8-month old granddaughter. That's usually a great thing, and we always have fun with her. However, I should add that they live in Baltimore, and that's where I'm blogging from today--in the very center of the Blizzard of 2010. We arrived here yesterday on the last Southwest Airlines flight from Hartford to Baltimore before the remainder of their schedule was cancelled. The snow started around 3 PM and really picked up overnight. As of 11:45 AM today, Baltimore Airport has recorded 26.5 inches of snow, and it is still snowing heavily. It is very likely that the all-time record for a single snowstorm in Baltimore is 28.2 inches, and that will likely be broken.

While we are all safely indoors, the street that we are on is too narrow for a plow to get through, so we may be snowed in here for days. I hope not, but it's truly amazing to be a part of meteorological history.

Another Near Miss. What Did You Expect from El Nino?

For the second time this week, a major winter storm is, by and large, going to miss central Connecticut. Earlier in the week, a storm system moved out to sea to our south, dusting Connecticut with a little snow, but depositing some 4-5 inches in the D.C-Baltimore area (which, for them, is a lot of snow).

Then forecasters started talking up another storm, supposed to affect our weather by Friday and into the weekend. The computer models were all over the place, some taking the system close enough to Connecticut to give us a decent snowfall (what broadcasters like to call a "plowable" storm). Other models were taking a more southerly track. As the week progressed, the models seemed to zero in on the more southerly track, once again taking the bulk of the snow through the Mid-Atlantic states, and missing Connecticut. In fact, as I write this, it appears that the Baltimore-Washington region is looking at the potential for 12-20 inches of the white stuff from this latest storm. So why are all these storms missing the northeast?

Simply put, there is a strong El Nino ocean current in the Pacific Ocean. When this occurs, the upper level jet stream over North America splits into a northern branch and a southern branch; and the southern branch is usually quite strong. The strong southern branch of the jet stream is responsible for all the rain in southern California, as well as the stormy weather that south Florida has seen this winter. It also tends to steer winter storms out to our south.

So while we still have plenty of cold air to deal with, we've been fortunate (sorry, all you skiers and snowboarders) that there hasn't been that much snow so far. And, for good measure, the storm that was being talked up for Tuesday and Wednesday is now also looking to be a bust, going south once again. This time you CAN blame it all on El Nino.

Hi Ho, Hi Ho...

It's back to work we go.

After a semester break that began way back on December 19th, the Spring semester gets under way on Monday, January 25th. That's just too long a break in my book. There doesn't seem to be a good reason why classes could not have started up last Tuesday (the day after Martin Luther King Day).

I know that some students and faculty like the long winter break, but for me, I've had enough days at home, and am more than ready to return to the classroom, and the weather lab. This semester, I'm teaching the upper division Weather Analysis & Forecasting class. This is one of my favorites, as the students get a real taste for the theory and practice of weather forecasting. This includes a daily statistical weather forecasting competition, which requires students to forecast the high and low temperatures for the next day, as well as the actual amount of precipitation expected. Scores are kept, rankings are posted, and students who beat me over the course of the semester get a free lunch.

I don't get to forecast weather that much over the course of a normal semester, but this class keeps me sharp, as the students always give me a run for my money. I've given away more than my fair share of free lunches over the years and I expect this semester will be no exception.

Looks like the January Thaw will be coming to an end later this week, as temperatures take a tumble by week's end. The mild weather of the past week has made us forget that the worst of winter, climatologically speaking, is still ahead of us. February and March are normally the snowiest two months of the year, so if you think that there's no more snow to be had, think again. The best is yet to come.

What's the Difference? Happy Whatever to Everyone!

There are those for whom this time of year brings conflict. Should we not say "Merry Christmas" to others, for fear we might offend if they do not celebrate that holiday? Have we become so paranoid that we avoid anything more generic than "Happy Holidays," or "Season's Greetings?"

We are all children of the same planet. We should celebrate our differences, because when we bring them all together, they make us stronger. Christians, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Baha'is, and any others I surely have forgotten are all human beings. That makes us all ONE family.

In that vein, I wish you all a very happy holiday season. It's much easier to say that, than to conspicuously leave anyone out. Try to stay safe, don't drink and drive, fasten that safety belt, and we'll all survive the winter break and start all over again in 2010.

Happy New Year! Let's hope that the year 2010 will bring Peace on Earth, and goodwill to all humankind.

Summer in December--Then Winter Again

Just when you thought that winter was around the corner, summer popped in for a brief farewell visit. Today on the CCSU campus, the mercury topped out at 66.6 degrees (isn't that the "devil" number, by the way?). After last night's rain and wind, the balmy temperatures this afternoon were a very pleasant change, allowing a quick cleanup of any downed tree branches. Things would have been much worse had their still been leaves on those branches. As it is, there aren't too many branches down as far as I can tell.

Now the clouds have returned and temperatures are poised to start dropping back to winter-like levels over the next 48 hours. As I write this, it's still 60 degrees on campus, but another storm is moving up the coast, and it might brush us with a few flurries on Saturday. By then the mercury will have a hard time reaching the 35-39 degree mark. One thing you can say about New England weather--it's never boring!

Just Me and the Dog

In a little while, I'll be driving my BW to the airport. She is off to attend the annual convention of the American Speech, Language and Hearing Association (ASHA) in New Orleans. She'll be presenting three papers at the convention.

The ASHA convention is huge, bringing together more than 10,000 speech-language pathologists, audiologists, researchers and professors under one roof. As a comparison, my own American Meteorological Society annual meeting (which will be in Atlanta in January) usually only attracts around 2500 attendees. The "speechies," as I like to call them, will literally be taking over The Big Easy for the next four days.

In years past, I have often followed my wife to the convention city for the weekend, giving us a little bit of a short pre-Thanksgiving getaway. Not this year, however. Airfares from Hartford to New Orleans have been nothing short of outrageous, averaging around $750-800 round trip. Only a lunatic (or someone on a full expense account) would spend that kind of money for a couple of days away.

So it's basically Sammy (our dog) and I who will be holding down the fort here in Connecticut until my wife gets back. I hope she likes jambalya and crawfish!!

In the House for #27

I'm still recovering from being in Yankee Stadium Wednesday night when the Yankees secured their 27th World Series title. The experience of watching your team win a championship, while surrounded by strangers who, at once, became good friends is something very special.

I didn't allow myself to really believe that they were going to win until the 8th inning. When Mariano Rivera, the greatest relief pitcher in the history of baseball, secured the final out of that inning, leaving the Yankees just three outs away, I finally felt that victory was at hand. But nothing I've ever done could have prepared me for the raw outpouring of shared exuberance that accompanied the final out (which I dutifully recorded on my iPhone). There were hugs, high-fives, cheers and even a few tears at the conclusion of the game. The fans around me had become brothers (and sisters)-in-arms. The feeling of joy and excitement at that moment is one that still, even three days later, is very difficult to describe.

The man sitting in front of me had come to the game with his nine-year old son. As the young boy soaked in the celebration going on all around him, I leaned down to him and said, "this is a moment you'll remember for the rest of your life." I envied him somewhat. After all, it took me 57 years to be "in the house" when the Yankees won the World Series.

Going to Game 6

Right after my classes end today, I'll be heading down to Yankee Stadium to watch my beloved N.Y. Yankees try to close out the 2009 World Series. I have never been to a potential World Series clincher (I've been to two World Series games before, but not clinchers) so I'm hoping the boys can put an end to it tonight.

Weather should not be a factor for the game tonight. Showers in western and central Pennsylvania are slowly moving east, and should not arrive in the New York area until at least 11 PM or midnight at the earliest. Depending on how quickly they move out tomorrow, they could threaten the start of a potential Game 7, but I don't think that game, if needed, would be postponed.

I'll be dressed for the chilly weather. It should be in the mid-40s at game time, but dropping into the upper 30's by the time the game is over. However, with no real windy conditions to speak of, it won't be nearly as uncomfortable as it was at ALCS Game 2. Here's hoping the Yankees send all their fans home happy tonight.

Bad Forecast Turns Out Good for Yankees

As someone who had a ticket to last night's ALCS Game 2 at Yankee Stadium, naturally, I was following the weather all day long before leaving for New York at 5 PM. Needless to say, making the trip to New York (by car and train) was a leap of faith, in light of the gloom and doom weather forecasts issued by the National Weather Service all day long.

The NWS insisted that it was going to rain all afternoon and deep into the night in New York. The early morning forecast called for rain developing after noon (80% probability). For Saturday night, the forecast called for a 100% probability of rain. Didn't sound too good for getting the game played, considering the 7:57 PM start time.

But, looking at radar through the afternoon, it seemed fairly obvious that the storm system moving up the coast was a) not developing quite as expected, and b) was having a hard time dislodging the high pressure system that had moved over the northeast early in the day. It was mostly sunny through the morning hours in Connecticut, which should have been the first sign that the computer models were not handling the storm system particularly well. In fact, by 4 PM, the "forecast radar" map from The Weather Channel indicated that rain would not arrive in the Bronx until at least midnight. Nevertheless, the NWS never updated that unfortunate late morning forecast. Judging by the number of empty seats at the Stadium last night, a lot of people decided to stay home, rather than risk spending a lot of money to get to the Stadium and risking a long rain delay or a rainout.

There's a reason why "nowcasting" is often a good thing. The NWS policy of only updating their forecast products in the late morning and early evening certainly did the public a disservice yesterday. By the way, the rain did not actually begin until 11:06 PM, and it was never hard enough to stop play.

Summer is Almost Over

As we approach the beginning of Autumn (Sept. 22nd at 5:18 PM EDT) we can look back on this past summer as one of extremes. The summer began on a cool and rainy note. There seemed to be a lot of rainy days, and the months of June and July did not feature a single day at Bradley International Airport where the mercury reached the 90 degree mark.

August saw a turnaround that featured more in the way of summer-like weather. Here on campus, we recorded eight days of temperatures 90 degrees or hotter, with a bona fide heat wave from August 15th to August 21st (seven days in a row of 90 or hotter). And, of course, as the days got hotter, so did the New York Yankees, owners of the best record in Major League Baseball since the All-Star break in mid-July.

The last week has seen a string of nice days interspersed with a day of rain here and there. Today will see increasing clouds, and rain will be moving into the area for Wednesday and into the latter part of the week. It's almost as if the weather gods are crying that summer is finally coming to an end.

Danny Disappoints, Yankees Do Not

So, all the excitement (from a meteorological perspective) about a tropical storm affecting southern New England today was premature, as Tropical Storm Danny never really got its act together. The center of circulation off the coast of Florida never seemed to coincide with the area of thunderstorms that spawned it, and Danny never lived up to expectations. It was, at best, a disorganized mess that just barely maintained tropical storm strength, and passed east of New England earlier today, spreading only some heavy rain over eastern sections, while never really producing any dangerous conditions along the Connecticut shoreline.

Danny's path and failure to organize itself were good news for Yankee fans, as conditions at Yankee Stadium earlier today were actually just fine for today's game against the Chicago White Sox. The Yankee offense, unlike Danny, did not disappoint, putting 10 runs on the board, while the defense sparkled, and the White Sox could only manage a single hit off Yankee pitching. The Stadium was not nearly full, as many fans, probably expecting a washout, decided not to make the trip to the Bronx. I was there, however, and it was really a great game (if you're a Yankee fan). The sun even tried to make an appearance late in the game. Here in Connecticut, however, it was rain and drizzle through most of the day. The next couple of days should be much nicer.

Of Heat Waves and Tropical Storms

After getting through all of June and July without a single day with temperatures of 90 degrees or higher, the month of August has featured much more summerlike weather. So far, there have been nine days at Bradley International Airport when the mercury has topped out at 90 or higher, including a seven day long heat wave from August 15th to the 21st. Today should be the final hot, humid day for a while, as a cold front will push through the region this evening, bringing much cooler Canadian air into southern New England for the next few days.

If you have outdoor plans for the weekend, things may go downhill very quickly on Friday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Danny, located east of the Bahamas this morning. The current forecast track brings Danny just east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina by early Saturday, and strengthens the storm to a Category 1 hurricane. It will then race up the eastern seaboard, perhaps reaching the Bay of Fundy (still as a hurricane) in Nova Scotia by Sunday morning. If this track holds up, heavy rain will be falling throughout southern New England by late Friday night, and will continue through most of Saturday. Also, wind speeds may exceed 40 mph, with higher gusts, especially along coastal sections of Massachusetts and Maine. This could be the first significant tropical weather system to affect the northeast in a long time. We'll be watching it as it develops.