I just finished reading "Storm World," by Chris Mooney (Harcourt, Inc, 2007). It's a look into the raging debate on the potential effect of global warming on hurricane intensity. I found it particularly interesting, as I know many of the main characters in the book, and have had the opportunity to hear them speak at conferences and symposia.
Mooney begins by looking at the last few hurricane seasons, and how hurricane research has become far more popular among meteorologists since the 2005 season, which featured Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. He explores the beginnings of the idea that a warmer ocean would produce stronger hurricanes, and he spends a lot of time with Dr. Bill Gray, of Colorado State University, one of the country's foremost hurricane forecasters, and a global warming skeptic.
He also spends a great deal of time looking into the politics behind NOAA's official position that hurricane intensity increases are the result of a natural climatic cycle (the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) rather than any global warming contribution.
At first, it's hard to tell which side of the climate argument Mooney is on, but by book's end, he makes it clear that he is on the side of researchers such as Kerry Emanuel of MIT, and Kevin Trenberth of NCAR, who have argued that climate models indicate that a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could lead to a half-category increase (on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale) in hurricane strength.
I must admit that Mooney makes convincing arguments for the work of Emanuel, Trenberth and others, and presents them with very little bias. If you are wavering on whether global warming might be linked to weather events now and in the future, I suggest you give this book a read.
