Dr. Steve Newman's (Mostly) Weather Blog

Of Football, Baseball, and the Absence of Winter in Connecticut

2012-02-06T15:10:00.000-05:00

Finally, the National Football League season is over. And congratulations to my beloved New York Football Giants, whose exciting victory in last night's Superbowl XLVI pretty much guarantees Hall of Fame status for both quarterback Eli Manning and Head Coach Tom Coughlin. It's not a pretty day for Patriots fans, and believe me, here in Connecticut, I'm surrounded by them.
And, as I look at the calendar, I see that in less than two weeks, all Major League baseball spring training camps will be underway. Thanks again to the Giants for making the time without baseball go a lot quicker this year. Seems like only yesterday, the Cardinals were raising the World Series trophy.
So, where did the winter of 2011-2012 go? Much of it seems to have landed in Europe, where Arctic cold and snow have been in the headlines for the past week. As I mentioned in my previous blog, the worst winter weather we had here in Connecticut was on Halloween weekend (almost two months before winter actually started), when 12 inches of snow fell in the interior part of the state. In January of 2011, we had 54.3 inches of snow (a record for ANY single month in Connecticut recorded weather history) at Bradley International Airport. In January of this year, we had only 6.8 inches of snow, and the month averaged 5.5 degrees F warmer than normal. The midpoint of winter came on February 4th. The climatologically coldest day of the year was January 31st. Yet here we are, on February 6th, with the mercury standing at 52 degrees as I write this. Incredible!
Just four days ago, Punxatawney Phil came out of his hole on Gobbler's Knob and saw his shadow, guaranteeing six more weeks of winter. I don't know about you, but I'd gladly take six more weeks of the kind of winter we've been having so far. And looking two weeks out, there does not seem to be any real significant winter weather on the horizon. With the sun getting higher each day, and the daylight hours getting longer, winter may have a tough time making a comeback. Famous last words....

Finally, a Taste of Winter

2012-01-17T13:48:00.000-05:00

     After wondering when winter would finally arrive in Connecticut, we finally got a small taste of winter weather with last night's snowfall. Much of the interior part of the state picked up 2-3 inches of snow, but as I write this, temperatures are hovering around 40 degrees, rain is moving in from the west, and much of the snow will be gone by tomorrow morning. There might be a few chances for flurries or a light accumulation over the next 3-4 days, but nothing of any significance is expected, nor is there much in the way of truly cold air on the horizon for the next week or so.

     So far, the biggest snowfall we've had was the 12-inch storm on October 28th that left much of the interior of the state without electricity for up to 10 days. But that was truly a freak storm, that occurred in the middle of Autumn. We haven't really seen any significant snow since then.

     It's easy to blame global warming as the culprit behind the unusually mild and snow-free winter, but other parts of the country are certainly seeing their fair share of the white stuff, especially in the midwest. All I can say is that nature eventually returns to the average, and as we have been so far below average in snowfall for the winter season up to now, we can only cringe in horror at what the remainder of winter might bring us if nature decides to play catch-up.

Wild and Crazy Weather Around Here

2011-11-28T13:23:00.000-05:00

As we approach the end of Autumn in southern New England, one can look back and see that this has been a rather crazy three months, especially here in Connecticut.

First, as detailed in my previous blog entry, we had an earthquake. While the quake was centered in Virginia, it was clearly felt throughout much of the northeast. Less than a week later, Hurricane Irene came barreling up the east coast, passing just to the west of central Connecticut. The storm weakened to tropical storm strength just before reaching us, but the winds downed trees and power lines throughout the state. My home was without electricity for four days, and the beginning of the Fall semester at CCSU was delayed. It was an unpleasant experience to say the least, but at least it was warm enough, and the days were long enough to make sitting in a house with no power not as bad as it could have been.

Little did we know that just two months later, a freak Halloween weekend snowstorm would hit the state. With many of the trees still in full leaf, the weight of the heavy, wet snow (which accumulated nearly a foot in my neighborhood) brought even more trees down than in the August tropical storm. Much of the interior of Connecticut was in the dark once again, and with so many towns without any power, the restoration took a lot longer. This time, my home was without electricity for nearly a week. Others in the state spent up to 12 days in the dark. And, as we had just turned the clocks back that weekend, the nights came earlier, and the temperatures were considerably colder. There was more tree debris to clear, and even now, there are lots of piles of cut branches that have yet to be picked up and disposed of.

Finally, as I write this, it is 64 degrees outside. Incredibly warm for late November. And by midweek, temperatures will drop back into the 40s. As I said, it's a bit crazy out there.

Earthquakes, Hurricanes, What's Next?

2011-08-25T22:12:00.000-04:00

As I write this, Hurricane Irene is working its way up the east coast, heading for New York City. This just two days after a magnitude 5.8 earthquake struck in Mineral, Virginia, rattling buildings from Atlanta to Toronto. For me, this was the first time I had ever felt an earthquake. I was sitting in my office when my chair started moving, and then I realized the whole building was swaying. I looked at my secretary (who also noticed her chair moving from side to side) and said "we're having an earthquake." By the time I could decide whether or not to leave the building, the swaying had stopped. It didn't take long to confirm that we had, indeed, experienced a rare east coast earthquake. What could top that?

How about a hurricane? Hurricane Irene is expected to strike Connecticut late Saturday night and Sunday with 75-80 mph winds, a storm surge of up to 10 feet along the shoreline and rainfall that could be in the 5-10 inch range. How much damage it causes, and how it will affect everyone's daily routine here on campus remains to be seen. But no doubt, these are interesting times....

What's Going On Here?

2011-04-07T16:00:00.000-04:00

Some of you may recognize the title of this blog entry as a question that was often posed by the late Dick Young, sports columnist for the New York Daily News. Every so often, Mr. Young would stop and contemplate the state of affairs in the world of sports and those columns would always carry that title.

I decided to use (steal?) that title for this entry after reading about a San Francisco Giants fan named Brian Stow. Mr. Stow, along with some friends, decided to travel down to Los Angeles to attend Opening Day at Dodger Stadium, as the world champion Giants opened the 2011 season with their in-state National League rivals. Being the Giant fan he is, Mr. Stow was wearing a full set of Giants regalia. The Dodgers won the game 2-1, but that isn't the story.

Following the game, as Mr. Stow and his friends were leaving the stadium, he was attacked by a couple of Dodger fans (wearing Dodger Blue). Mr. Stow was kicked, beaten and knocked to the ground. His attackers melted into the crowd and have not yet been apprehended. Meanwhile Mr. Stow (a Santa Cruz paramedic, and father of two) remains in a medically induced coma, and has suffered brain damage as a result of the beating. Authorities are interviewing members of the crowd who may have witnessed the attack, and have released sketches of the alleged assailants. A reward, which has now grown to $150,000 has been offered for information leading to the arrest and conviction of the attackers.

While we may have become accustomed to the "hooliganism" that we sometimes see at soccer games in other countries around the world, this sort of attack is out of the ordinary for American sports fans. We can toss good-natured insults at fans of other teams (as I often do to Red Sox fans I know) but physical violence is something that has, up to now, been rare at baseball games (aside from the occasional alcohol-fed fights in the stands at various ballparks). Let's try to remember one thing, everyone--It's Just a Game!! Your life and my life are not any worse if either of our favorite sports teams loses.

So, the question remains, "What's Going on Here?"

Hey wait a minute! I was right!

2011-03-16T08:36:00.000-04:00

In my last blog entry, on February 9th, I indicated that I thought that we had broken the back of winter, and that we had seen the last of the really cold air for the season. Well waddya know? I was right!

While February did produce over 15 inches of snow at Bradley Airport, there were no monster storms, nor was the cold as deep or unrelenting as we had seen in January. In fact, the winter had effectively ended once the upper level pattern shifted as it did last month.

And even though March began on the chilly side, temperatures have reached the mid-50s on a number of occasions, and just about all the precipitation for the month so far has been rain. And there doesn't seem to be any really cold air around that might bring a return of Old Man Winter.

I do, however, remember a few Yankee Stadium opening days, that were played in snow, and this IS New England, so let's not rule anything out just yet.

Finally, A Break in the Pattern

2011-02-09T15:26:00.002-05:00

After the most miserable month of January since records have been kept in Connecticut, there appears to be a major shift in the weather pattern for the first part of this month. Since the Christmas Night storm of December 26th, Connecticut has been pounded with one major winter storm after another. On January 12-13, we received over two feet of snow from a single storm, breaking the all-time record for one snowstorm, held since 1905. One week later, another 12-18 inches fell, followed by more snow later in the month. The single-month snowfall record, fell victim to winter's wrath. By month's end, 57 inches of snow had fallen at Bradley International Airport in January, shattering the January record of 43.1 inches, as well as the all-time single-month record (from December, 1945) of 45.3 inches.

As of this writing, 82.6 inches of snow has fallen at Bradley, putting the winter of 2010-2011 in the Top Five of all years since 1905. And to go along with the snow, it has been brutally cold throughout much of the month of January. The month averaged 2.7 degrees colder than normal. Only 12 of the 31 days had highs above the freezing mark. The low for the month was 7 below zero on January 24th. So the snow that has fallen has primarily remained on the ground with almost no melting at all. Many roofs and a significant number of structures (including the bowling alley where my weekly league was housed) collapsed under the weight of all that snow and ice. The only bit of good news was that we did not experience any sort of January thaw that might have caused rapid snowmelt and serious flooding concerns.

But now, there finally appears to be a major change taking place in the weather. Upper level patterns are shifting, keeping the storm track away from the northeast. The long-range outlook for the next 10 days shows no significant snowstorms threatening southern New England. And the strength and volume of cold air in Canada appears to be decreasing, almost as if it has all been drained out. We may actually see temperatures reach the 35-40 degree range later this weekend, which would allow for some slow and steady melting of snow with no threat of flooding.

We appear to have weathered the worst that winter can throw at us. Yes, the snow piles in my neighborhood are still well over six feet tall, but they will slowly begin to shrink. The climatologically coldest part of winter has passed. It won't be long before someone asks, "hot enough for ya?" I can't wait.

Remembering the Challenger - 25 Years Later

2011-01-27T15:29:00.000-05:00

Tomorrow, January 28th, marks the 25th anniversary of the loss of the space shuttle Challenger, and its seven astronauts. The Challenger disintegrated just 73 seconds into its mission after rubber O-rings on the shuttle's solid rocket boosters (SRB) deteriorated in the cold weather, allowing hot gasses to escape out the side and burn a hole in the external fuel tank. The spacecraft became aerodynamically unstable, causing a massive disintegration of the external tank and the orbiter itself.

Among the passengers onboard was Christa McAuliffe, NASA's first "Teacher in Space." Another "Teacher in Space," Barbara Morgan, who was Ms. McAuliffe's backup, waited 21 years to get her ride, finally going into orbit aboard STS-118, in August, 2007.

I recall being in class that fateful Tuesday morning. TV coverage of the launch was almost non-existent (only CNN was televising the launch) as most networks felt shuttle launches were too routine to interrupt normal programming. But around mid-day, I started hearing people talking in the halls--"Did you hear? The space shuttle exploded!" I found it hard to believe. How could such a thing possibly be true? We managed to round up a TV set and, by now, all the networks were covering the disaster. The liftoff was picture perfect on a very cold Florida morning. But a minute later, our lives had all been changed, as had the entire U.S. manned space program. Although NASA initially claimed that the cold weather (it was 28 degrees F that morning in Cape Canaveral) contributed to the accident, later studies showed that the cold was the main factor in causing the SRB O-ring to fail.

Seventeen years and four days later, on Feb. 1, 2003, the shuttle Columbia was destroyed during re-entry. Some of the thermal insulating tiles on the leading edge of its wing were damaged during launch, and did not protect the shuttle from the intense heat of re-entry, resulting in the breakup of the orbiter over Texas. Among those lost was Ilan Ramon, Israel's first astronaut.

These incidents serve to remind us that the exploration of space can not only be rewarding and exciting, but risky and dangerous as well. On this 25th anniversary of the Challenger disaster, we remember all those who made the ultimate sacrifice to advance our understanding of "the final frontier."

Challenger Crew: Michael Smith, Dick Scobee, Ron McNair, Ellison Onizuka, Christa McAuliffe, Greg Jarvis, Judith Resnik.

Columbia Crew: Rick Husband, Bill McCool, Mike Anderson, Ilan Ramon, Kalpana Chawla, David Brown, Laurel Clark.

Had Enough Yet?

2011-01-21T13:14:00.000-05:00

This winter of 2010-2011 is certainly going to be one that I'll remember for a long time. In the 33 years I've been living in Connecticut, I cannot remember a two-week period (from the 12th to the 26th of January) in which so much snow has fallen (and is forecast to fall) and it has been so cold. Since the first of January, Bradley International Airport has seen over 41 inches of snow. Adding to the 14 inches recorded in December of 2010, that brings us to around 55-56 inches of snow so far this winter. By the way, the normal snowfall for an ENTIRE winter is 45.3 inches. So we've already surpassed by over 10 inches the total we might normally expect for an entire winter season. And January isn't even over yet. Bear in mind that normally, February is the snowiest month of the year. I can hardly wait....

Add to that the persistent cold weather so far this month. After starting off the new year with a 51 degree reading on January 1st, there haven't been many days where the temperature has risen above the freezing mark. Since January 2nd, there have only been six days that got above the 32 degree mark. On the 14th and 15th we had overnight low temperatures of 3 degrees above, and 6 degrees BELOW zero, respectively. I personally have over two feet of snow on the ground at my house, and it shows no signs of melting (except into my roof and down through the ceiling of my family room). The forecast for the next few days features temperatures that will reach 5 to 10 BELOW zero at night and struggle to make 20 degrees during the day. Adding to that, there is a possibility of yet another major snowstorm on Wednesday of next week (the 26th) that could add to the already outrageously high piles of snow on the ground.

What could possibly explain why I still live and work here in the northeast?

A Continent Apart

2010-11-11T16:14:00.000-05:00

I have two children, both married. They live on opposite sides of the country. My son and his wife live in Los Angeles, having moved there in the summer of 2008. My daughter and her husband (along with my cute little granddaughter) live in Baltimore, in the area where they both went to college. As you can imagine, this makes whole family get-togethers somewhat problematical.

As you might expect, I see the Baltimore side of the family much more often than the Los Angeles side. I find this somewhat upsetting, as it almost seems as if I favor my daughter over my son. That isn't the case at all. But I do find that the distance to my son and daughter-in-law makes it seem as if I hardly know them since they got married. My wife and I try to get out there at least twice a year, and we try to get them to come east at least twice a year, but it still doesn't help get rid of the disconnect that is always there. While I talk to my son on the phone or via e-mail regularly, it's not nearly the same as seeing him and his wife face-to-face. My wife and I both miss him terribly. It's always a sad scene when we have to go home and the long airplane flight can be tough on both us us. They are planning to move back east at some point, but there's no real timetable for that right now.

However, it looks as if we will be getting the entire family together in Baltimore during the winter. This should be a fun time for all of us, as my son and his wife haven't seen their niece since last May and she's really changed. At the same time, I worry about the weather. Last February, my wife and I went down to Baltimore to visit, and we got snowed in by a record storm--30 inches of snow in a 36 hour period. While that is a once-in-a-lifetime snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic states, you never know when it could happen again. Hopefully, it won't happen again THIS winter.

Bring on the Twins!

2010-10-05T16:18:00.000-04:00

One thing about post-season baseball that can't always be factored in to predictions is the weather. For example, a lot of New York Yankee fans are worried about facing the Minnesota Twins in the American League Division Series out in Minneapolis. While this may seem to be a rehash of last year's ALDS, there is one major difference. Last year, the games in Minnesota were played in the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, a large, loud enclosed stadium, insulated from the effects of the weather outside (it actually snowed during one of the games). This year, the Twins opened a brand new ballpark, Target Field. It's a good old-fashioned outdoor ballpark with no protection from the October weather.

Fortunately, the forecast is calling for better weather in Minneapolis than in New York. Daytime temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday in the Twin Cities should reach the 70 degree mark. Game time temperatures should be in the low 60's. Considering that there will be rain and chilly temperatures in New York tomorrow and Thursday, the lords of Major League Baseball are probably thrilled that the ALDS is opening in Minneapolis rather than in New York. And to make things even better, the forecast for the weekend in New York (for games 3 and, if necessary, 4) is also calling for fair and mild weather. That's all that any true baseball fan could ask for--a series in which weather won't be a major factor. Play ball!

Misery--Week 2

2010-07-23T17:55:00.000-04:00

If you've been reading my occasional blog entries, then you already know that I am a rabid Yankee fan with a Saturday season ticket package. Tomorrow, I'll be attending my second straight game in two weeks. Last week was an interesting day. It began with the 64th Annual Old Timers' Day, followed by a truly horrific Yankee performance against the Tampa Bay Rays (a 10-5 loss). And as if that weren't bad enough, it was a hot and humid day in the Bronx. Even though my seats are under the Grandstand overhang, in the shade, it was still uncomfortably warm and I was miserable by the time I got home.

Tomorrow promises even more misery. The warm front that brought the persistent rain to Connecticut today will likely push north and east of the region overnight, leaving us in the pressure cooker for tomorrow. This could be one of the most uncomfortable days of the summer. Temperatures will be pushing well into the 90s with dew points reaching the mid-70s. What does that mean? Let's just say that when the dew point reaches 70 degrees, the air is already oppressively humid. When it exceeds 75, as it might tomorrow, we are looking at tropical rainforest levels of humidity. Combined with the high temperatures, it will most likely feel more like 105 degrees tomorrow afternoon.

With some 48,000 other fans to surround me, I guess it just proves that misery really does love company. The only thing that might make it a bit more palatable is that Alex Rodriguez might hit homerun #600 tomorrow (unless he does it tonight). Despite what most people believe, baseballs travel farther in hot, humid weather than in hot, dry weather. So there's a chance that the crowd's collective misery might be turned into a grand celebration in the Bronx tomorrow. Here's hoping...

Another Semester Coming to an End

2010-05-13T14:46:00.001-04:00

Today is supposed to be a Reading Day on campus, as students prepare for their Final Exams next week. Yet, here I am, conducting a Lab exercise in my Introduction to Meteorology class with 11 students in attendance. We needed to use this day as a make-up for a missed Thursday lab, so here we are, all wishing we could be someplace else.

The next month will be somewhat hectic for me, as my son is getting married on Memorial Day weekend, and my granddaughter will soon be celebrating her first birthday. Sandwiched between those momentous occasions will be prep time for my Summer Session courses, and a couple of trips to Yankee Stadium to watch my beloved Bronx Bombers take on the Red Sox and Twins. The first of those two games is this Saturday, and the weather looks to be ideal, with sunny skies and temperatures in the low 70's.

We've become somewhat spoiled by the warmer than normal Spring weather in Connecticut, so people seem to be disappointed if the mercury doesn't reach the 80 degree mark. However, normal highs for this time of year should be in the low 70's so we are right where we should be. Feels nice after a few damp and chilly days earlier this week. I predict, with great confidence however, that within the next 6 weeks, we'll begin hearing complaints about how hot and humid it is, and how we just can't wait for things to cool off and Autumn to be here. Just goes to prove that you can't please everyone, no matter what you do.

Big Bang...Big bust!

2010-03-25T18:10:00.002-04:00

Just back from 6 days in beautiful, but congested, sunny southern California. My wife and I went out to visit our son and his fiancee (last time we'll see them before they get married). Weather was great. Traffic was horrendous. Fantastic food of every variety (Japanese, Korean, Mexican, Italian, and, of course, Carl's Jr. and In-N-Out Burger).

Biggest disappointment of all, however, was the taping of an episode of one of my favorite sitcoms, The Big Bang Theory. We had procured four tickets for the Tuesday evening taping. We were told to arrive at least one hour before the scheduled 6:30 showtime. Traffic between Venice and Burbank was unbelievable. Arrived at Warner Bros. studios at 5:50 PM. At first, we were turned away, but then put on the list as guests 125-128. Unfortunately, an unusually high number of guests on the VIP list meant that only 89 of the 128 ticket-holders got in to see the taping. We wound up leaving with a VIP card that can be used for any taping in the next year. So our "Big Bang" turned out to be a "big bust." We wound up poking around Burbank, then heading up to the Griffith Park Observatory to look at the moon through a telescope, and marvel at the city of Los Angeles at night, laid out below us like a twinkling blanket.

One more thing. While the "redeye" flight allows you to spend a full day in L.A. before coming home (a day which included some successful whale-watching from Point Vicente in Palos Verdes), you definitely pay the price on the day you get home.

Enough Already!

2010-02-22T19:35:00.002-05:00

This looks to be an active week in the weather department here in Connecticut. Two major winter storms will be affecting the region between now and the upcoming weekend. The computer models that forecast weather systems are having fits trying to determine exactly where the storm tracks will be, and where the all-important rain/snow line will be.

Snow should develop overnight and we may see around an inch or so by morning. Things get interesting tomorrow, as temperatures rise to the upper 30s during the day. Expect a rain/snow mix here in central Connecticut, with more rain along the shoreline and more snow in the northwest hills. Wednesday might give us a bit of a break, but another storm system moves up the coast on Thursday. This second storm may pull in a little more cold air, which could set us up for a more significant snow accumulation. In addition, the models are forecasting the storm center to stall right over Connecticut, keeping us in stormy weather through most of Friday, and possibly into the early part of the weekend.

I know there's some warm air somewhere out there, but it doesn't look like it's coming this way anytime soon. At least baseball is being played in Florida and Arizona, so Spring is surely coming (but when?).

Back in Connecticut, But What A Day It Was!

2010-02-08T21:57:00.003-05:00

After a wild, wild weekend in snowed-in Baltimore, we are finally back in Connecticut, just in time for a new snowstorm. Our flight back from Baltimore was cancelled this morning, and we were forced to take Amtrak to get back home in time for work tomorrow. The weekend storm deposited over two FEET of snow in the Federal Hill neighborhood of Baltimore, where my daughter, her husband and my granddaughter live. They've finally managed to dig out their cars, and now they are staring at another 10-12 inches of snow coming tomorrow afternoon and through the night tomorrow night. That would make this the snowiest winter in Baltimore history.

Here in Connecticut, the weekend storm left not a flake in the Hartford-New Britain region, but this new storm won't be so benevolent. Winter Storm Watches are already posted and they could be upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings tomorrow. The more northerly track of this new storm means New Yorkers could be digging out from a foot of snow by Wednesday morning, and some of that will likely be coming to central Connecticut. I've lived that last 32 years here in Connecticut, and 5 years before that in upstate New York, and I have never seen as much snow in one place as I did in Baltimore this past weekend.

Last week, I mentioned that February and March are normally the two snowiest months of the winter. It looks as if February is going to be living up to its reputation.

In the Teeth of the Blizzard

2010-02-06T12:25:00.002-05:00

On Thursday, I posted a message relating to the El Nino effect taking storms out to sea south of Connecticut. That is happening right now as I write this. And it looks as if central Connecticut won't see any snow at all.

This weekend, my wife and I are visiting with my daughter, son-in-law and our 8-month old granddaughter. That's usually a great thing, and we always have fun with her. However, I should add that they live in Baltimore, and that's where I'm blogging from today--in the very center of the Blizzard of 2010. We arrived here yesterday on the last Southwest Airlines flight from Hartford to Baltimore before the remainder of their schedule was cancelled. The snow started around 3 PM and really picked up overnight. As of 11:45 AM today, Baltimore Airport has recorded 26.5 inches of snow, and it is still snowing heavily. It is very likely that the all-time record for a single snowstorm in Baltimore is 28.2 inches, and that will likely be broken.

While we are all safely indoors, the street that we are on is too narrow for a plow to get through, so we may be snowed in here for days. I hope not, but it's truly amazing to be a part of meteorological history.

Another Near Miss. What Did You Expect from El Nino?

2010-02-04T20:57:00.003-05:00

For the second time this week, a major winter storm is, by and large, going to miss central Connecticut. Earlier in the week, a storm system moved out to sea to our south, dusting Connecticut with a little snow, but depositing some 4-5 inches in the D.C-Baltimore area (which, for them, is a lot of snow).

Then forecasters started talking up another storm, supposed to affect our weather by Friday and into the weekend. The computer models were all over the place, some taking the system close enough to Connecticut to give us a decent snowfall (what broadcasters like to call a "plowable" storm). Other models were taking a more southerly track. As the week progressed, the models seemed to zero in on the more southerly track, once again taking the bulk of the snow through the Mid-Atlantic states, and missing Connecticut. In fact, as I write this, it appears that the Baltimore-Washington region is looking at the potential for 12-20 inches of the white stuff from this latest storm. So why are all these storms missing the northeast?

Simply put, there is a strong El Nino ocean current in the Pacific Ocean. When this occurs, the upper level jet stream over North America splits into a northern branch and a southern branch; and the southern branch is usually quite strong. The strong southern branch of the jet stream is responsible for all the rain in southern California, as well as the stormy weather that south Florida has seen this winter. It also tends to steer winter storms out to our south.

So while we still have plenty of cold air to deal with, we've been fortunate (sorry, all you skiers and snowboarders) that there hasn't been that much snow so far. And, for good measure, the storm that was being talked up for Tuesday and Wednesday is now also looking to be a bust, going south once again. This time you CAN blame it all on El Nino.

Hi Ho, Hi Ho...

2010-01-24T22:58:00.002-05:00

It's back to work we go.

After a semester break that began way back on December 19th, the Spring semester gets under way on Monday, January 25th. That's just too long a break in my book. There doesn't seem to be a good reason why classes could not have started up last Tuesday (the day after Martin Luther King Day).

I know that some students and faculty like the long winter break, but for me, I've had enough days at home, and am more than ready to return to the classroom, and the weather lab. This semester, I'm teaching the upper division Weather Analysis & Forecasting class. This is one of my favorites, as the students get a real taste for the theory and practice of weather forecasting. This includes a daily statistical weather forecasting competition, which requires students to forecast the high and low temperatures for the next day, as well as the actual amount of precipitation expected. Scores are kept, rankings are posted, and students who beat me over the course of the semester get a free lunch.

I don't get to forecast weather that much over the course of a normal semester, but this class keeps me sharp, as the students always give me a run for my money. I've given away more than my fair share of free lunches over the years and I expect this semester will be no exception.

Looks like the January Thaw will be coming to an end later this week, as temperatures take a tumble by week's end. The mild weather of the past week has made us forget that the worst of winter, climatologically speaking, is still ahead of us. February and March are normally the snowiest two months of the year, so if you think that there's no more snow to be had, think again. The best is yet to come.

What's the Difference? Happy Whatever to Everyone!

2009-12-17T16:00:00.002-05:00

There are those for whom this time of year brings conflict. Should we not say "Merry Christmas" to others, for fear we might offend if they do not celebrate that holiday? Have we become so paranoid that we avoid anything more generic than "Happy Holidays," or "Season's Greetings?"

We are all children of the same planet. We should celebrate our differences, because when we bring them all together, they make us stronger. Christians, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Baha'is, and any others I surely have forgotten are all human beings. That makes us all ONE family.

In that vein, I wish you all a very happy holiday season. It's much easier to say that, than to conspicuously leave anyone out. Try to stay safe, don't drink and drive, fasten that safety belt, and we'll all survive the winter break and start all over again in 2010.

Happy New Year! Let's hope that the year 2010 will bring Peace on Earth, and goodwill to all humankind.

Summer in December--Then Winter Again

2009-12-03T16:45:00.002-05:00

Just when you thought that winter was around the corner, summer popped in for a brief farewell visit. Today on the CCSU campus, the mercury topped out at 66.6 degrees (isn't that the "devil" number, by the way?). After last night's rain and wind, the balmy temperatures this afternoon were a very pleasant change, allowing a quick cleanup of any downed tree branches. Things would have been much worse had their still been leaves on those branches. As it is, there aren't too many branches down as far as I can tell.

Now the clouds have returned and temperatures are poised to start dropping back to winter-like levels over the next 48 hours. As I write this, it's still 60 degrees on campus, but another storm is moving up the coast, and it might brush us with a few flurries on Saturday. By then the mercury will have a hard time reaching the 35-39 degree mark. One thing you can say about New England weather--it's never boring!

Just Me and the Dog

2009-11-18T09:46:00.002-05:00

In a little while, I'll be driving my BW to the airport. She is off to attend the annual convention of the American Speech, Language and Hearing Association (ASHA) in New Orleans. She'll be presenting three papers at the convention.

The ASHA convention is huge, bringing together more than 10,000 speech-language pathologists, audiologists, researchers and professors under one roof. As a comparison, my own American Meteorological Society annual meeting (which will be in Atlanta in January) usually only attracts around 2500 attendees. The "speechies," as I like to call them, will literally be taking over The Big Easy for the next four days.

In years past, I have often followed my wife to the convention city for the weekend, giving us a little bit of a short pre-Thanksgiving getaway. Not this year, however. Airfares from Hartford to New Orleans have been nothing short of outrageous, averaging around $750-800 round trip. Only a lunatic (or someone on a full expense account) would spend that kind of money for a couple of days away.

So it's basically Sammy (our dog) and I who will be holding down the fort here in Connecticut until my wife gets back. I hope she likes jambalya and crawfish!!

In the House for #27

2009-11-07T07:59:00.002-05:00

I'm still recovering from being in Yankee Stadium Wednesday night when the Yankees secured their 27th World Series title. The experience of watching your team win a championship, while surrounded by strangers who, at once, became good friends is something very special.

I didn't allow myself to really believe that they were going to win until the 8th inning. When Mariano Rivera, the greatest relief pitcher in the history of baseball, secured the final out of that inning, leaving the Yankees just three outs away, I finally felt that victory was at hand. But nothing I've ever done could have prepared me for the raw outpouring of shared exuberance that accompanied the final out (which I dutifully recorded on my iPhone). There were hugs, high-fives, cheers and even a few tears at the conclusion of the game. The fans around me had become brothers (and sisters)-in-arms. The feeling of joy and excitement at that moment is one that still, even three days later, is very difficult to describe.

The man sitting in front of me had come to the game with his nine-year old son. As the young boy soaked in the celebration going on all around him, I leaned down to him and said, "this is a moment you'll remember for the rest of your life." I envied him somewhat. After all, it took me 57 years to be "in the house" when the Yankees won the World Series.

Going to Game 6

2009-11-04T13:54:00.002-05:00

Right after my classes end today, I'll be heading down to Yankee Stadium to watch my beloved N.Y. Yankees try to close out the 2009 World Series. I have never been to a potential World Series clincher (I've been to two World Series games before, but not clinchers) so I'm hoping the boys can put an end to it tonight.

Weather should not be a factor for the game tonight. Showers in western and central Pennsylvania are slowly moving east, and should not arrive in the New York area until at least 11 PM or midnight at the earliest. Depending on how quickly they move out tomorrow, they could threaten the start of a potential Game 7, but I don't think that game, if needed, would be postponed.

I'll be dressed for the chilly weather. It should be in the mid-40s at game time, but dropping into the upper 30's by the time the game is over. However, with no real windy conditions to speak of, it won't be nearly as uncomfortable as it was at ALCS Game 2. Here's hoping the Yankees send all their fans home happy tonight.

Bad Forecast Turns Out Good for Yankees

2009-10-18T12:16:00.003-04:00

As someone who had a ticket to last night's ALCS Game 2 at Yankee Stadium, naturally, I was following the weather all day long before leaving for New York at 5 PM. Needless to say, making the trip to New York (by car and train) was a leap of faith, in light of the gloom and doom weather forecasts issued by the National Weather Service all day long.

The NWS insisted that it was going to rain all afternoon and deep into the night in New York. The early morning forecast called for rain developing after noon (80% probability). For Saturday night, the forecast called for a 100% probability of rain. Didn't sound too good for getting the game played, considering the 7:57 PM start time.

But, looking at radar through the afternoon, it seemed fairly obvious that the storm system moving up the coast was a) not developing quite as expected, and b) was having a hard time dislodging the high pressure system that had moved over the northeast early in the day. It was mostly sunny through the morning hours in Connecticut, which should have been the first sign that the computer models were not handling the storm system particularly well. In fact, by 4 PM, the "forecast radar" map from The Weather Channel indicated that rain would not arrive in the Bronx until at least midnight. Nevertheless, the NWS never updated that unfortunate late morning forecast. Judging by the number of empty seats at the Stadium last night, a lot of people decided to stay home, rather than risk spending a lot of money to get to the Stadium and risking a long rain delay or a rainout.

There's a reason why "nowcasting" is often a good thing. The NWS policy of only updating their forecast products in the late morning and early evening certainly did the public a disservice yesterday. By the way, the rain did not actually begin until 11:06 PM, and it was never hard enough to stop play.

Summer is Almost Over

2009-09-15T16:52:00.002-04:00

As we approach the beginning of Autumn (Sept. 22nd at 5:18 PM EDT) we can look back on this past summer as one of extremes. The summer began on a cool and rainy note. There seemed to be a lot of rainy days, and the months of June and July did not feature a single day at Bradley International Airport where the mercury reached the 90 degree mark.

August saw a turnaround that featured more in the way of summer-like weather. Here on campus, we recorded eight days of temperatures 90 degrees or hotter, with a bona fide heat wave from August 15th to August 21st (seven days in a row of 90 or hotter). And, of course, as the days got hotter, so did the New York Yankees, owners of the best record in Major League Baseball since the All-Star break in mid-July.

The last week has seen a string of nice days interspersed with a day of rain here and there. Today will see increasing clouds, and rain will be moving into the area for Wednesday and into the latter part of the week. It's almost as if the weather gods are crying that summer is finally coming to an end.

Danny Disappoints, Yankees Do Not

2009-08-29T23:14:00.003-04:00

So, all the excitement (from a meteorological perspective) about a tropical storm affecting southern New England today was premature, as Tropical Storm Danny never really got its act together. The center of circulation off the coast of Florida never seemed to coincide with the area of thunderstorms that spawned it, and Danny never lived up to expectations. It was, at best, a disorganized mess that just barely maintained tropical storm strength, and passed east of New England earlier today, spreading only some heavy rain over eastern sections, while never really producing any dangerous conditions along the Connecticut shoreline.

Danny's path and failure to organize itself were good news for Yankee fans, as conditions at Yankee Stadium earlier today were actually just fine for today's game against the Chicago White Sox. The Yankee offense, unlike Danny, did not disappoint, putting 10 runs on the board, while the defense sparkled, and the White Sox could only manage a single hit off Yankee pitching. The Stadium was not nearly full, as many fans, probably expecting a washout, decided not to make the trip to the Bronx. I was there, however, and it was really a great game (if you're a Yankee fan). The sun even tried to make an appearance late in the game. Here in Connecticut, however, it was rain and drizzle through most of the day. The next couple of days should be much nicer.

Of Heat Waves and Tropical Storms

2009-08-26T11:36:00.002-04:00

After getting through all of June and July without a single day with temperatures of 90 degrees or higher, the month of August has featured much more summerlike weather. So far, there have been nine days at Bradley International Airport when the mercury has topped out at 90 or higher, including a seven day long heat wave from August 15th to the 21st. Today should be the final hot, humid day for a while, as a cold front will push through the region this evening, bringing much cooler Canadian air into southern New England for the next few days.

If you have outdoor plans for the weekend, things may go downhill very quickly on Friday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Danny, located east of the Bahamas this morning. The current forecast track brings Danny just east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina by early Saturday, and strengthens the storm to a Category 1 hurricane. It will then race up the eastern seaboard, perhaps reaching the Bay of Fundy (still as a hurricane) in Nova Scotia by Sunday morning. If this track holds up, heavy rain will be falling throughout southern New England by late Friday night, and will continue through most of Saturday. Also, wind speeds may exceed 40 mph, with higher gusts, especially along coastal sections of Massachusetts and Maine. This could be the first significant tropical weather system to affect the northeast in a long time. We'll be watching it as it develops.

I kick you, you kick me.

2009-08-23T00:15:00.002-04:00

Two games done in this weekend's Fenway Park face-off between my beloved Yankees and the evil Boston Red Sox. On Friday night, the Yankees pounded the Sox and recorded a 20-11 victory. On Saturday afternoon, the Sox returned the favor with a 14-1 embarrassment of the Bronx Bombers. Sunday night sees the rubber game. If the Yankees win, they leave Boston with a 7 1/2 game lead. If Boston wins, the lead is cut to 5 1/2 games.

It must have been tough for both teams to play these first two games in such humid weather conditions. Both games featured lots of home runs, which is to be expected when the humidity level is high. Contrary to popular baseball mythology, humid air is not "heavy," and does not weigh the baseball down. In fact, because water molecules are lighter than air molecules, the overall density of humid air is actually less than that of dry air at the same temperature. So it's logical to expect fly balls to carry further on humid days, and that seems to be the case for the first two games.

Temperatures are expected to cool down this week as a Canadian air mass moves into the region. This should make for some nice baseball weather as the Yankees return home from their ten-game road trip after finishing up at Fenway Park. Anyone at Yankee Stadium next Saturday--come by Section 305 and say hello.

Of Hurricanes and El Nino

2009-07-24T11:11:00.003-04:00

Sure has been a long time since my last blog post. The end of the Spring Semester and the quick turnaround to Summer Session have occupied most of my time (along with the arrival of our first granddaughter in June).

So now that Summer Session is entering its final week, I can look ahead at some upcoming vacation time and begin to think about this year's hurricane season. The National Weather Service has yet to publish its final estimate of what the 2009 hurricane season will be like (that should be out during the first few days of August). But it seems that the Atlantic may be quieter this year than in the past few. There is a strong El Nino developing along the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, and that is expected to continue through the upcoming winter. El Nino is an unusually warm water current that flows eastward along the equatorial Pacific towards the South American coast. When it develops (usually every 3-4 years, but unpredictably so), the Pacific becomes much warmer than normal, while the Atlantic and Caribbean remain cooler than normal. This tends to sharply decrease the number and strength of tropical storms and hurricanes that form in the Atlantic from June through October. So I expect that the forecast will call for fewer Atlantic/Caribbean storms than in the last few years.

That's certainly good news for the residents of Florida and the Gulf Coast, as they have been pounded since 2004 with one tropical system after another. In 2004, Florida experienced four major hurricanes (Charlie, Helen, Ivan and Jeanne). In 2005, they were hit with Wilma (which earlier had been the strongest hurricane in Atlantic/Caribbean history), while the Gulf states had to deal with Katrina and Rita. Last year, Gustav and Ike did their damage from New Orleans to Galveston and Houston.

Hopefully, the developing El Nino will lessen the activity in the Atlantic and give all those folks a breather, along with all those others who have vacation plans along the North and South Carolina coasts. Nothing worse than dragging all that stuff down south, then having to evacuate in the face of an approaching storm.

I guess the only thing left to wonder about is what Jim Cantore and Stephanie Abrams of The Weather Channel will do with themselves if there are no hurricanes to stand in the middle of.

Summer Session Online at CCSU

2009-05-28T20:22:00.003-04:00

For the second summer in a row, I'm teaching a course on severe and hazardous weather that is being offered only online. I find online courses to be a mixed blessing for both me and the students in the course.

For me, the fact that I don't have to maintain a presence on campus every day is a nice change of pace. I spend much of the day online, waiting for students to ask questions, grading assignments as they are submitted, and moderating chat rooms where students can interact with me and each other. Even though I never see any of these students face-to-face, I actually feel that I get to know them better than most students in my larger in-class courses. That's the part I like.

What I don't like, however, is, in fact, the lack of face-to-face contact. I pride myself on my ability to get difficult concepts across to students through use of the board (blackboard or whiteboard). That aspect of teaching doesn't exist in an online course. I rely on the students to keep up with, and learn and understand the material presented to them online, but I know that for some, it just doesn't happen.

Online courses are moneymakers for the university, as there are little or no overhead costs involved (no classroom lights to keep on, no air conditioned rooms to keep cool, etc.). But they are not for everyone, and students often don't realize that until they are in over their heads.

Auto Updates? Thanks, but no thanks.

2009-05-14T16:17:00.003-04:00

Recently, I've been having problems with my computers at home. I have a somewhat unique situation in that my desktop computer (now over four years old) runs Windows XP and is still working well for me. My notebook computer came with Windows Vista Home Edition, and, while it took me awhile to adjust to the differences, it also works well, and (contrary to what those smug Mac folks would have you believe) hardly ever crashes or malfunctions. I have a home wireless network, and both computers speak to one another with never a harsh word between the two of them.

However, I've always been one of those types who wants to have the latest updates for every piece of software that I have. So I usually set my computer to automatically download and install these updates (for XP, Vista, Firefox, IE, etc.). Most of the time, they install with no problems and often provide improved functionality. Recently, however, that hasn't been the case.

I tried to install the Service Pack 3 update to Windows XP. It didn't work. In fact, I got a message telling me that the update installation failed. So I went back to where I was, and now I get continuously reminded that I need to update to Service Pack 3.

Then I installed an update to Windows Vista on my notebook. No problem with the installation, but when I restarted the computer, it refused to recognize the CD/DVD drive. In fact, it told me I didn't have one. I restored the system to its old, non-updated state, but still no CD/DVD drive. Luckily, I found a solution on Google, and all is well. But I won't run the update again, that's for sure.

Finally, there's Firefox 3.0.10. It updated itself automatically then proceeded to crash my computers (both of them) over and over again. I finally uninstalled it, and cycled back to a much earlier version of Firefox that works fine. And I no longer get automatic updates for it.

Newer isn't always better.

Mirror Images

2009-04-23T15:56:00.002-04:00

People who have a hard time understanding how weather moves across the country from west to east should only look at east coast vs. west coast weather this week and weekend. Last week and into early this week, the western U.S., particularly in California, was in the grip of an early spring heat wave. Temperatures in Los Angeles were in the upper 80's, which is unusually warm for this time of year. At the same time, here in Connecticut, we were looking at temperatures in the 50's for most of the early part of the week.

The upcoming weekend promises a reverse of those conditions. Here in Connecticut, record-high temperatures are possible, as the mercury on both Saturday and Sunday will rise into the upper 80's. Only those regions near the coastal waters will escape the extreme heat, as cool water temperatures act to keep temperatures lower as a sea breeze develops both days. On the left coast, however, things will swing back to a slightly below normal condition, as temperatures in southern California will return to the mid to upper 60's.

The hot weather will not help firefighters in South Carolina who are fighting a major wildfire in the North Myrtle Beach area. Conditions have been very dry, and some of the expensive homes and golf courses around Myrtle Beach have been threatened. At least 69 homes have been destroyed as of this writing, and more are under the gun.

Baseball's Back...Spring, Not Quite

2009-04-12T18:32:00.002-04:00

What a cold Easter weekend it's been here in Connecticut. Both yesterday and today featured temperatures that did not make it out of the 40's. Hard to believe that the calendar says mid-April, and we're one week into the 2009 baseball season. At least there's hope for the upcoming week that we'll see temperatures into the 60's as we move into mid-week.

The Yankees will officially open their new Stadium on Thursday, and I'd love to go, but I can't, for two reasons. First (and most importantly) I have classes to teach. Second, I don't have a ticket, and at this point, I can't afford one. There are still tickets to be had from the official Ticketmaster website. Face value......$2625.00!!! Obviously not an option. And I've seen nothing on StubHub (MLB's official ticket resale site) for less than $225. I'll just have to record the game, and watch it when I get home from work. At least the weather should cooperate for the opener, with sunny skies and temperatures in the 60's. A nice day for baseball. In fact, any day they can play is a nice day for baseball.

Out Like a Lamb

2009-03-31T16:16:00.002-04:00

March lives up to its reputation here in Connecticut. In like a lion, out like a lamb. That couldn't be more true than it's been this month. On March 3rd, we had the coldest day of the month, with a high temperature of only 22 degrees F here in New Britain. Today, on the last day of March, we've seen the mercury top out at a balmy 59 degrees. At Bradley International Aiport, almost 8 inches of snow fell on March 2nd. There was no more snow for the rest of the month, even though March is climatologically the second snowiest month of the year.

That's not to imply that there won't be any more winter weather here in New England. There are plenty of reports of accumulating snow in past years, even into the early part of May. But as the length of daylight grows longer, and the intensity of the sunlight grows stronger, winter is finally losing the battle as springtime weather takes over.

Only 6 more days till the Yankees open the 2009 regular season in Baltimore. I can't wait!

What a Turnaround!

2009-03-10T16:31:00.002-04:00

Just eight days ago, in my last post, I talked about the impending 8-12 inch snowstorm that had just begun around Connecticut. In fact, much of the state got exactly that amount of snow, with some regions getting upwards of 14 inches of new snow. And this, just after all the winter's snow cover had finally melted.

Now, little more than a week later, all of that snow is gone. With the past weekend's 60+ degree weather on both Saturday and Sunday, it has all melted away. Even after living in New England for over 30 years, I am still amazed by how quickly the weather can change around here.

Let the Fun Begin!

2009-03-01T21:49:00.002-05:00

After a dusting of snow early this morning, the main event here in Connecticut is finally underway. Snow began here in the Hartford area around 9 PM, and should become quite heavy overnight.

Looks like a good 6-12 inches for the Hartford-New Britain area. Highest amounts (12-15 inches) will be in northeastern Connecticut and across central Massachusetts and southern Vermont and New Hampshire.

Oh well! Who wants to look at dull brown ground anyway? Fresh snow is much prettier.

A Taste of Spring, Then Back to the Reality of Winter

2009-02-28T11:52:00.002-05:00

Yesterday's high temperature of 60 degrees at both Bradley Airport, and our own weather station here at CCSU gave us all a taste of Spring. Then the cold front moved in, and just before 2 AM today, the wind shifted back around to the northwest, the dew point plunged from the 40s back to the teens and suddenly, here we are back in winter once again. And it's not over yet.

A quick moving storm system will develop along the stalled front to our south and snow should break out overnight and last into the morning hours tomorrow. Look for an inch or two of the white stuff, as a prelude to a much nastier storm that will affect the region late tomorrow night and through a good portion of the day on Monday. It looks as if we could see as much as 6-8 inches of snow by the time this storm is over late Monday afternoon or Monday evening. Some areas of southern New England could see as much as a foot of snow from this storm. Still, the nature of coastal storms is their inherent unpredictability, so don't expect the broadcasters to narrow in the forecast amounts until later tonight, or, in some cases (for the more conservative forecasters) later tomorrow.

The seemingly never-ending winter of 2008-2009 marches merrily on...

Finally in the New Yankee Stadium

2009-02-19T13:43:00.003-05:00

It's been 3 1/2 months since the Yankees ended their 2008 season and closed the doors on historic Yankee Stadium. A brand new stadium has now risen right across the street, and the Yankees will open this ballpark officially on April 16th (although a couple of exhibition games will be played against the Cubs on April 3rd and 4th). It promises to be a magnificent new facility.

However, the way in which existing season ticket holders have been relocated has been, to say the least, frustrating. I have had a Saturday season ticket plan since 1999, right behind home plate in the first row of the upper deck. I was told early on that seats in that part of the new stadium would be reserved exclusively for full season ticket holders. So I filled out an online questionnaire and let the Yankees know where I'd like to sit for this coming season.

Apparently, all that went out the window. I just received my new seat location this past Tuesday. They've put me in the upper deck beyond the foul pole, in fair territory, in right field. This is where Jason Giambi used to hit home runs on a good day. I guess I shouldn't complain too much, though. A significant number of Saturday and Sunday plan holders weren't even offered seats on the weekend days--they were relocated to WEEKDAY plans (mostly Mon-Thurs night games). And the silver lining is that this particular location saves me a lot of money compared to last year. My seats are $15 less per ticket than I paid in 2008. I'm not thrilled to be way out there, but I am thrilled to be in the new stadium, and I can't wait to see what the new place looks like from the inside.

Bad Ads and Dumb Ideas

2009-01-30T17:26:00.002-05:00

Now that "the Big Game" is nearly here, I thought I'd go off on some of my pet advertising peeves. Let's start with "the Big Game" itself. What's with the NFL not allowing us to use the word "S...owl" in advertising? It's not as if they wouldn't benefit from everyone talking about the game for two solid weeks. But, if you're an advertiser, you can't use that word without paying the NFL a fee. How stupid is that? It's gotten to the point where the Brotherhood of my own synagogue couldn't publish a flyer advertising its annual Super...oops, I almost said it...er, Big Game party for fear that they'd be sued for using the word.

Next...how about the car dealerships here in Connecticut that advertise that they can get anyone credit, even if you have no credit or "slow credit." I'm still trying to figure out exactly what "slow credit" is. So then they tell you that you can own this $39,000 car for just $99 down OR $99 per month. It's a good thing that I have a DVR on my TV so I can freeze the ad and read the tiny print before it vanishes from the screen. Seems that the $99 down deal requires a 60-month loan with a monthly payment approaching $900 per month. And the $99 per month deal, for a 60-month period requires a down payment of over $30,000. I don't know many people with bad credit who could afford either one of these scenarios. And suffice it to say that I'd never do business with any car dealership that would resort to such misleading tactics. Would you?

Cold, Cold and More Cold

2009-01-22T09:38:00.002-05:00

If you're thinking that this has been one cold January, you are absolutely right. Through the first 21 days of 2009, the temperature has averaged 4.4 degrees below normal. Fourteen of the 21 days have had daily average temperatures colder than normal, and we are 10 percent above the normal heating degree day (HDD) total for the month so far. For those unfamiliar, a HDD is a measurement of heating fuel usage. It is calculated by subtracting the daily average temperature--(MAX + MIN) /2--from a base of 65 (the average temperature below which it is assumed that you must use fuel to heat your home). So, for example, a day that has an average temperature of 25 degrees, accumulated 40 HDD (65-25). The more HDD we accumulate, the more fuel we use (i.e., the colder it is).

Normally, at this time of January, we'd be anticipating a "January Thaw." This phenomenon, a marked warming late in the month that lasts a few days, actually shows up in long-term averages for the region. But don't look for one this month. Computer models show a quick warm-up (to the upper 30's) for Friday, but then right back to the below-normal weather pattern for the remainder of the month. The daylight hours are getting longer now, but the old saying still holds true--"As the day lengthens, the cold strengthens." In fact, the climatologically coldest days of winter come at the very end of January and into the first few days of February (in spite of the increased daylight). Things normally begin to turn around by mid-February, but don't fool yourselves--there's still plenty of winter left before the grass begins to turn green once again. Stay warm.

The Joys of Automation

2009-01-06T17:55:00.002-05:00

If you've logged in to the CCSU Weather website (www.ccsu.edu/weather) in the past three days, you may have noticed that our live weather screen is not updating properly. This, unfortunately, happens everytime there is a power interruption on campus. It causes our computers to go down, and they do not automatically reboot and transmit the current weather information to the internet.

This requires me to physically log in to the Weather Center computer and start things up all over again. This is usually not a problem during the semester, when I am on campus every day, but during intersession, I'm not always there if there's a problem. If the weather cooperates, we may have things fixed tomorrow. But if not, I expect things will be back to normal by Thursday afternoon. Sorry if the lack of live weather causes an inconvenience for anyone. You should be aware that our system continues to record and log weather conditions, even when they are not updating, so, once the system is back online, all the weather data for the past few days will be uploaded and available to all the weather geeks out there.

Snow and ice overnight into tomorrow morning, so be careful out there.

I Hate Winter

2008-12-11T16:36:00.003-05:00

One of the things that people living in the northern part of the U.S. like is the change of seasons. And certainly, the fall foliage display here in New England is a highlight of the year's weather that always takes one's breath away, no matter how many times it's experienced. And I would miss that difference between winter and spring, between spring and fall, and the crispness of a fall morning.

And while I admit that living in a southern location where it's warm all the time would be somewhat attractive, it would also be somewhat boring. Having said all that, I still have to say that I hate winter. By mid-December here in Connecticut, the leaves are off the trees, the lawns have turned to a dull shade of greenish-brown, and the skies are almost always gray. Sure, there are some crisp, sunny days thrown in here and there, but they seem to just tease you for a day or two before the relentless gray comes back again. And once the ground is covered with snow, even that little bit of ratty green disappears, not to be seen again until late March. And of course, there's no baseball.

Perhaps I'm just becoming older and more curmudgeonly. I have to admit that it's a distinct possibility.

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

2008-11-26T22:46:00.002-05:00

I know, I know. The stock market is a mess. The economy is in shambles. There is terrorism, war and unrest all over the world. And yet, on Thanksgiving Day, we can all find something, no matter how small or insignificant, to be thankful for.

So, as you sit down to Thanksgiving Dinner with friends and family, take a moment to reflect on the good things that life has to offer you every day.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Talk About Stressful Weather...

2008-11-20T16:11:00.002-05:00

A number of years ago, the National Weather Service used to release a Weather Stress Index to indicate the degree to which the weather would cause stress on the human body. How that stress was defined was to compare the type of weather that would normally be expected for a particular time of year to the actual weather that was forecast to occur. So, for example, a 90 degree day in Miami in September would be a lot less stressful than a 90 degree day in Minneapolis on the same day. Conversely, a 40 degree day in Minneapolis in November would be a lot less stressful than a 40 degree day in Miami at any time.

We've certainly seen our share of weather stress this week in Connecticut (and much of the northeastern part of the U.S.). At my home this morning, the mercury bottomed out at 14.8 degrees, more than 15 degrees colder than the normal low of 31 for this time of year. And while today's normal high temperature is 48 degrees, we topped out here at 36.5 degrees. And the cold is only getting stronger as we move into the upcoming weekend.

To make matters personally worse, last weekend, my wife I visited our son, who lives in San Diego. Three solid days of absolutely crystal clear skies and temperatures near 90 degrees were immediately followed by the cold, blustery weather we experienced as soon as we returned to Connecticut. Now THAT'S stressful!

A Nice Day for All the Veterans

2008-11-11T10:12:00.002-05:00

Somehow, it always seems that the weather turns out to be nice on Veteran's Day. And today is no exception, as the sun is shining here in Connecticut, and the mercury should get up to the low 50s this afternoon. Tomorrow looks great as well, with morning sunshine giving way to afternoon clouds. It will be on the cool side, however, as I don't expect we'll break the 50 degree mark tomorrow.

Things go downhill for the latter part of the week and into the weekend. A series of low pressure waves will bring rain (and maybe some snow to higher elevations) on Thursday and through much of Friday. Saturday and Sunday don't look much better, with clouds and the continuing chance of rain or showers.

While we may not agree with all the wars fought by this country in the recent past, we still need to honor those who have answered the call and put their lives on the line for our freedom. So if you know someone who has served, give them a tip of the hat today.

Yes We Can....Yes We Did!

2008-11-05T13:44:00.002-05:00

Americans turned out in record numbers (largest percentage of eligible voters since 1908) to speak up for change in America yesterday. My thanks to all who took the time to make their voices heard.

In the words of the late President Gerald Ford, "My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over." And while it might be a cloudy day in Connecticut today, the sun is shining all over this great nation of ours. And the American beacon of hope, freedom and leadership is once again shining brightly all over the world.

Vote Today to Change America!

2008-11-04T08:13:00.000-05:00

Please don't forget to vote today, if for no other reason than to honor and remember those who gave their lives so that you might still have that right.

This is our opportunity to take back America. Vote!

Nice Autumn Days

2008-10-30T15:54:00.002-04:00

After all the rain, wind and cold we've experienced over the past week, it's nice to be able to forecast some nearly perfect Autumn weather for the upcoming weekend. Those of you with Friday off will have a great day, with perfectly clear skies, light winds and, although we'll get off to a chilly start, temperatures reaching up to near 60 in many inland locations across Connecticut.

Another frontal system will move through on Friday night, giving us some cloudy skies into early Saturday that should lead to partly cloudy skies by afternoon. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler on Saturday, with many areas topping off only around 50. Sunday looks like another beautiful day with lots of sunshine and highs in the 56-58 degree range.

If only there weren't so many leaves to rake....

A Chance to Change History, A Chance to Make History

2008-10-25T21:23:00.003-04:00

As I write this, only 10 days remain until the 2008 Presidential Election. And in this election, Americans have a chance to change history and to make history at the same time. I remember when I first started voting, almost 40 years ago, that no one ever believed that a woman or an African-American would ever be elected President of the United States in our lifetimes. The history of our country would lead many to believe that we could never overcome the discrimination of our past and change the perception of the United States around the world.

Now we stand on the threshold of a history-making election. We can change that perception of America on November 4th by electing Senator Barack Obama of Illinois as our next President.

Sen. Obama has shown that he has the composure, and the intelligence to lead this country back to the greatness of the post World War II years. Those were times when the world knew that America stood for freedom and democracy around the world. President Kennedy realized that same thing when he started the Peace Corps in the 1960s. But the last eight years have seen our reputation sullied at the hands of the current administration. Our Constitution is under attack from within our own Executive branch. America's image is tarnished. Senator John McCain promises more of the same--an endless war in Iraq, and more tax cuts to the wealthiest one percent of Americans while the middle class continues to struggle with high health care costs, loss of retirement funds and foreclosures on homes. His choice of a completely unprepared running mate brings his judgment into serious doubt. We have a chance to move forward and regain our stature around the world, and to show the rest of the world that we can, indeed unite as one nation, and move beyond the past eight years into a new decade of leadership.

I support Barack Obama for President, and I hope that you will join with me in voting for him on November 4th.

The opinions stated in this blog are solely my own, and in no way represent the Physics-Earth Sciences Department or Central Connecticut State University.

Caribbean Vacations During Hurricane Season

2008-10-16T16:40:00.003-04:00

Every summer, people wonder and worry about whether they should plan a Caribbean vacation during the months of August and September. After all, these are peak hurricane months in the tropics, and, while prices tend to drop on vacation packages, one always runs the risk of having a hurricane or tropical storm put a real damper on that much-anticipated vacation.

Here's something you should think about, if such a vacation is already in your plans for next summer. You might be better off booking a cruise vacation, than sticking with just one island. The major reason I say this is that when tropical weather threatens, a hotel cannot just pick up and move out of the way. A cruise ship, however, can alter course to avoid the bad weather entirely. And while that may sound like no big deal, it can completely change the nature of your vacation. For example, a couple of years ago, a major cruise line altered its planned itinerary for a cruise from New York to Bermuda. The island was in the potential path of a hurricane. So the captain, in consultation with the cruise line, decided to take the ship north to New England and Canada for the 7-day cruise. Needless to say, this raised howls of indignation from passengers, who had packed clothing in anticipation of tropical weather, and were now facing weather of a much cooler nature. Many threatened to sue the cruise line. But the fine print in the cruise contract left them with no legal recourse. The cruise line reserves the right to skip scheduled ports-of-call, or even change the itinerary altogether if, in the captain's opinion, the ship might be threatened by tropical storms or hurricanes. Most cruise lines, if they know in advance, will offer passengers the option to cancel and rebook at no charge. If the itinerary change is a last-minute affair, they will often give you some onboard credit to make up for the inconvenience. But be aware that they are under NO obligation to give you any sort of compensation for weather-related itinerary changes.

Having said that, you are still probably better off on a cruise ship that can avoid bad weather than on an island in the direct path of a major storm, with the airport shut down, and no way out.

The Blog Goes Political

2008-10-06T10:56:00.004-04:00

If you've visited this blog before today, you've probably noticed that I list "Obama for America" as one of my favorite websites. So it's no secret who I'm supporting in the upcoming election (now just 29 days away). Aside from one message about Gov. Sarah Palin, I have steadfastly resisted posting any politically oriented opinions on this blog (as it has been, and still is, mostly about weather related topics).

However, with the nasty, negative turn that Sen. John McCain's campaign has now taken (and vows to continue right up till Election Day), I have to speak up. Sen. McCain had a nice post-convention bounce, and actually had a slight lead in polls coming out of the Republican National Convention. But instead of talking issues, his campaign turned to a series of out-and-out lies about Barack Obama and his (Obama's) positions. The result of that negative campaigning was a drop in support for McCain. Having seen that fail, McCain attempted to politicize the financial crisis in America, "suspending" his campaign to return to Washington and push the bailout package (which failed in the House after he became involved in the negotiations). The public and the press did not fall for this campaign stunt, so Sen. McCain did, in fact, debate Sen. Obama and lost that debate by a considerable margin. Last Thursday, Gov. Palin, while not self-destructing, as many expected, failed to convince many Independent and undecided voters that she is ready for the Vice Presidency (and, heaven help us, the White House). The McCain campaign has lost even more ground over the past few days.

Yesterday, the campaign announced that they would devote the remainder of the time before the election to attacking Sen. Obama's patriotism and honor. Those attacks began this morning with a new ad that paints Sen. Obama as "dangerous" and "dishonorable." Most of these attacks are, once again, based on more lies and deceptive video clips. Gov. Palin, over the weekend, accused Sen. Obama of "palling around with terrorists," and being "unlike most Americans." This morning, she commented on Sen. Obama's association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright, conveniently ignoring her own association with the Wasilla Bible Church, which recently hosted David Brickner, the head of Jews for Jesus, "a ministry that is out on the leading edge in a pressing, demanding area of witnessing and evangelism,” according to the Church's pastor Larry Kroons. According to Brickner, terrorist attacks on Israelis are God's "judgment of unbelief" of Jews who haven't embraced Christianity. "Judgment is very real and we see it played out on the pages of the newspapers and on the television. It's very real. When [Brickner's son] was in Jerusalem he was there to witness some of that judgment, some of that conflict, when a Palestinian from East Jerusalem took a bulldozer and went plowing through a score of cars, killing numbers of people. Judgment — you can't miss it."

The McCain campaign is out of ideas. They cannot debate on the issues, as they are completely out of step with the American public. So they attack Barack Obama and they will bring out all the old, disproven ideas (he's a Muslim, he went to a madrassa as a child, he won't wear an American flag pin, etc.) to scare voters into supporting McCain (a man who graduated 894th in a class of 899 at the U.S. Naval Academy).

I never thought this possible, but the McCain-Palin ticket is, in my opinion, even scarier than another four years of Bush-Cheney. And this won't be my last political post before Nov. 4th.
It should be interesting to see how tomorrow night's second Presidential Debate develops now that the tone of the campaign has changed so dramatically.

Mystique and Aura...Appearing Nightly

2008-09-21T13:39:00.002-04:00

I went to my last game at Yankee Stadium yesterday afternoon. And there are so many memories I have of the "Cathedral of Baseball" that I thought I'd put some of them into words here. First, let me say that when the sun is shining and the sky is a beautiful shade of blue, that first view of the field as you walk up the runway and into the upper deck just takes your breath away. There is no other view like that in baseball, and I’ll miss it once the new stadium opens.

Also, in the ten years that I’ve been a partial season ticket holder, I’ve made lots of friends in the seats around me. None of us knows where we’re going to be seated next year, so we basically said goodbye yesterday.

As the game ended, I just stood at my seat, surveying the beautiful green grass down below, the view of the county courthouse beyond centerfield and the old Concourse Plaza Hotel at the crest of 161st St. in the distance, and realized I’d never be inside this old building again. That’s when my emotions actually got the best of me. A friend in the next seat had a tear running down his cheek.

But the sadness was mixed with the euphoria of a Yankee victory, and being lucky enough to once again hear the strains of “Enter Sandman” as the bullpen door opened and the greatest closer in the history of baseball emerged to do what he does better than anyone–shut down the opposition with a perfect ninth inning.

I’d love to be there tonight, but I consider myself very blessed to have seen so many great moments in Yankee Stadium and to have been able to share them with all 55,000 of my best friends…and the best fans in baseball. Those of you that were fortunate enough to see any of the 2001 World Series games at the Stadium will know exactly what the title of this blog entry means. Thanks for the memories.

Fighting the "Cry Wolf" Syndrome

2008-09-16T17:06:00.003-04:00

Two weeks ago, in the face of the arrival of Hurricane Gustav, New Orleans officials ordered a mandatory evacuation, and told residents that if they did not leave, they were "on their own." Many residents complied and the city was a virtual ghost town by the time Gustav brushed past. Damage was nothing like that from Katrina, and many residents, upon returning, said the evacuation was unnecessary, and they would not leave again.
Obviously, those words were in the minds of many residents of the Galveston Bay area as Hurricane Ike approached the region last Saturday morning. By noon, some beachfront communities were completely cut off, as water levels had already risen past nine feet, submerging the only access roads. As it turns out, over 140,000 area residents did not evacuate, either choosing to ignore the advice of the National Weather Service, or being unable to leave for whatever reasons. The death toll from Ike has already topped 40 in Texas, with over 2000 having been rescued from their flooded or destroyed homes. Many felt the evacuation order was unnecessary and simply ignored it. Some undoubtedly lost their lives. Many more lost their homes. In the wake of the storm, many who stayed were quoted as saying, "next time, I'll leave," --the exact opposite of the reaction to Gustav in New Orleans.
The US Geological Survey has posted some "Before" and "After" photos of the Bolivar Peninsula (a particularly hard-hit area just east of Galveston). Almost all of the beachfront or near-beachfront homes here are completely gone, either blown or washed away by Ike's fury. Click here to see what's left.
How do we fight "Cry Wolf" Syndrome in the future? There are no clear answers. We live in a country where people are free to be as stupid as they like. But faced with an approaching catastrophe, we should think about choosing what former Hurricane Center Director Neil Frank used to call "the path of least regret."

Why Tell the Truth When Lying Works Just as Well?

2008-09-08T21:35:00.002-04:00

When she was announced as John McCain's running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin said that she "told Congress 'thanks, but no thanks' on that Bridge to Nowhere." When she made her VP acceptance speech at the Republican Convention, she repeated the exact same line. And earlier today, at a campaign rally, she, once again, used the same line in her speech. By now, every news organization in the United States has reported that, in fact, she did not reject the Bridge to Nowhere. In fact, she supported it during her campaign for Governor. And, in fact, Congress had already dumped the idea well before she changed her mind. But she did take the money that had been earmarked for the bridge and used it in Alaska.

So the question remains...why is Governor Palin still lying about the Bridge to Nowhere? The answer is simple...if you tell a lie often enough, people might begin to believe it.

Just one person's opinion.

It Could Be Deja Vu All Over Again

2008-08-30T23:51:00.002-04:00

At this hour, Hurricane Gustav is gaining strength once again, having cleared the northwestern tip of Cuba. It is a Category 4 hurricane, and could briefly become a Category 5 storm before weakening back to a Category 4 as it approaches the Louisiana coast. Even so, this is not good news for New Orleans.

Hurricane Katrina was a strong Category 3 hurricane when it passed just east of New Orleans on August 29, 2005. Gustav could be worse. The forecast track puts the storm just WEST of New Orleans on Monday. Such a track would put New Orleans on the stronger right-hand side of the storm's eye. That means that southerly and southeasterly winds of up to 140 mph will be sending huge amounts of water up the Mississippi River and into the heart of the city as the storm makes landfall. The flooding might be worse than it was three years ago.

A mandatory evacuation of the city has been ordered beginning at 8 AM on Sunday. City and state officials have informed the public that if they do not leave, they are effectively on their own. Over 2000 National Guard troops and 1400 police officers are already on duty in advance of the storm's arrival. The New Orleans Superdome will NOT be used as a "shelter of last resort" as it was in 2005.

If the storm does cause massive flooding and damage in New Orleans, it should result in a most interesting debate on how (and even whether) to rebuild the city in the wake of yet another devastating hurricane.

Greetings From the Beach

2008-08-08T17:52:00.001-04:00

Hello from North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. My wife and I have been here since Monday, and in that time we've experienced a whole range of coastal weather. Daytime highs have been, for the most part, in the 90's with high humidity. And there hasn't been much relief on the beach as the intensity of sunlight (which heats the beach sand to temperatures too hot to walk on without shoes) has pretty much erased any effect of the daytime sea breeze.

Last night, the weather changed as a line of severe thunderstorms moved through. The lightning was quite impressive and there was a good soaking rain that persisted into the late night hours. This morning was a bit cooler and less humid than we've seen over the past four days. We've been fortunate that there have been no tropical weather systems affecting the east coast of the U.S. while we've been here.

But we're off to an active start to this year's tropical storm season, with five named storms already. The only piece of good news right now for the east coast and Gulf states is that the Pacific seems to be very active right now, and that often leads to a lack of activity in the Atlantic/Caribbean. But the most active part of the season still lies ahead (from late August through September) so there's still plenty of time for the Atlantic Ocean to produce some tropical weather.

Save on Gasoline by Paying Cash? Not Really.

2008-07-16T19:23:00.002-04:00

Recently, the state of Connecticut enacted legislation that enabled gasoline stations around the state to offer savings to customers (usually around ten cents per gallon) who pay with cash, rather than using a credit card. Sounds like a good idea, right? Wrong. One must always operate on the assumption that businesses will always seek to maximize profits. Here's what I have observed so far.

On a local major commercial traffic strip, known as the Berlin Turnpike, there are a number of competing gas stations. Each offers fuel at the same price (currently around $4.19 per gallon for regular unleaded gas). However, a couple of these stations have begun offering a discount for cash. So, you think you might be able to save some money by paying in green? Forget it. The two stations that I have seen offering such a discount have raised the price of regular unleaded gas by 10 cents per gallon, to $4.29. Then they offer you a 10 cent per gallon cash discount, bringing the price back to $4.19 per gallon. So are cash customers saving money? No. But credit and debit card customers (and that's most of us, as the price of tankful of gas is more money than Donald Trump carries in his wallet) now get to pay 10 cents a gallon MORE than we did before. This is known as "highway robbery," or, in this case, "turnpike robbery."

To be fair, there are still plenty of gas stations that are not offering this so-called "cash discount." They still charge the going rate, whether you choose to pay with cash or plastic. Those are the stations that I tend to patronize. I don't like getting ripped off.

Is There Such a Thing as a Healthy Tan?

2008-06-28T09:06:00.002-04:00

For years, I've been telling my students in Introductory Meteorology and Earth Science classes of the hazards of overexposure to Ultraviolet (UV) radiation. UV is a known cause of skin cancer and malignant melanoma (a particularly nasty and almost always fatal form of cancer).

Nevertheless, not a day goes by in a Summer Session class where I don't see students (usually female, but often guys as well) coming in with tans that are so dark that it makes me wonder whether they spend ANY time indoors. And my warnings to them about suntan and skin cancer seem to fall on deaf ears. I am particularly vocal when it comes to the subject of tanning salons. And now, my position has been supported in a column by Dr. Arthur Caplan of the University of Pennsylvania on the MSNBC website (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25378496/).

Dr. Caplan discusses how our society has made the tanned skin a desirable thing--a "healthy glow" as it were. Here's an excerpt from Dr. Caplan's column:

"A couple of high school students in my neighborhood recently told me they are getting ready to hit the beach this summer by tuning up their suntans inside tanning beds.

When I asked one of my colleagues here at Penn, Dr. William James, a professor of dermatology, if the high school students had the right idea about getting a head start on a tan, he laughed out loud. A tan, he said, represents nothing more than damage to the skin. It is the body trying to defend itself against an environmental hazard — too much UV light. In other words, indoor tanning gets you ready for the beach in the same way that getting scalded in a hot tub gets you ready to be boiled alive."

I have a relative who is a slave to the sun. He is younger than me, and always sports a dark tan, even in winter. But his skin is already beginning to show signs of aging--wrinkles, dark spots--that normally wouldn't appear for years. Overexposure to UV ages the skin prematurely, and robs it of its natural elasticity. And then, of course, there's that cancer thing.

In my opinion, anyone who spends money on tanning salons must be incredibly vain, stupid or both. And anyone who spends considerable time in the sun without using sunblock of AT LEAST SPF 15 (SPF 30 would be better) is asking for trouble down the line. Save your skin---skip the tanning bed.

Lots of Thunderstorms

2008-06-23T22:13:00.003-04:00

It seems to me that we are experiencing more than our usual share of thunderstorms here in Connecticut this summer. Joe Brumbach's monumental 1965 work, The Climate of Connecticut tells us that most Connecticut thunderstorms occur in the northwest hills. Thunderstorm frequency drops off as one heads south and east towards the Rhode Island shoreline. The reason, ostensibly, is that cool breezes coming off Long Island Sound tend to stabilize the lower atmosphere near the shoreline, reducing the frequency of thunderstorms.

But this summer, the entire state seems to be getting a lot of thunderstorms. Over the past two weeks, it feels like there are storms across the state on an almost daily basis. The atmosphere has been unstable for quite awhile now, and it only takes a little local heating, or a weak cold front moving across the state to set off the fireworks.

So, is it global warming that's giving us all the thunderstorm activity? Who's to say. We've already had temperatures reach 99 degrees this month, far earlier than normal. But early June heat waves are not that uncommon here. I remember a doozy of a heat wave in early June of 1984. But one of the main features of the global warming model is an increase in extremes of weather, and a lot more storminess. I guess we'll just have to wait on this one. The jury is still out.

"Hartford" magazine: Don't bother

2008-05-30T14:03:00.002-04:00

For the last few months, I've been receiving a copy of "Hartford" magazine in the mail. I'm not a subscriber, so I really don't know why it's been coming. And thank goodness I'm not, because, in my humble opinion, this "magazine" isn't worth the paper it's printed on.

Each month seems to bring a new round of "who's who and who's doing what" in the Hartford area. These are essentially photos of various Connecticut "celebrities" at parties around town. It's like the society page of the NY Times with lesser known names and in glossy color. I'm guessing that most of us couldn't care less.

The articles are more like advertisements than anything else. It seems as if each month brings another "Best of...." article. If it's not restaurants, it's dentists. If it's not dentists, it's physicians. If it's not physicians, it's "Best Towns to Raise Children." I'll tell you this. If I were a dentist or physician in the area, I'd be pretty upset about these types of articles. They seem to be nothing more than popularity contests, and often leave very good and very qualified practitioners out. Add to that the fact that the article pages are often surrounded by ads for various medical and dental offices, and it leads one to wonder just how "objective" these puff pieces are.

About the only thing worthwhile is the monthly restaurant listing. Some of the eateries are reviewed, others are not. And advertisements also appear on the same pages as restaurant ratings. But at least I know the addresses and phone numbers of places I might want to dine at.

So if you're not getting this mag for free, as I assume most others such as myself are, don't waste your money buying it. Better to visit the local public library, where you can peruse it at no charge.

A Perfect Holiday Weekend

2008-05-26T09:21:00.002-04:00

Growing up here in the northeast, my family and I used to venture to the Catskills for most Memorial Day weekends. And it always seemed that there would be at least one rainy day over the course of the holiday. Not this year, however. In fact, the weather has improved each day through the holiday weekend, capping off with a great day today, with temperatures reaching the low 80s everywhere in Connecticut but the shoreline (where the sea breeze off the cool L.I. Sound will keep the temperatures only in the 70s).

What else might make the weekend perfect? How about a sixth Yankee win in a row this afternoon in Baltimore? Combined with a typical Red Sox West Coast trip (disaster in Oakland), the Yankees are finally gaining ground on the Sox. The only problem is that the Tampa Bay Rays haven't yet realized who they are, and are playing lights out. This could only happen in the Bizarro World.

Subway Series Game 1--Rained Out

2008-05-16T20:10:00.003-04:00

I had hoped that the Yankees and Mets could get Friday night's game at Yankee Stadium in, between the raindrops around the northeast tonight. Unfortunately, it was not to be. That probably means that the matchup between the Yankees' Darrell Rasner and the Mets' Johann Santana will be pushed back to tomorrow afternoon.

That's a good thing, as I'll be at the game and it should be quite a matchup. Both teams are struggling right now, as their offenses continue to sputter along. The Mets are without Pedro Martinez and El Duque Hernandez, while the Yankees' rotation hasn't been looking great lately, and both Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada remain on the Disabled List.

Tomorrow's weather should be a little better for baseball, with mixed clouds and sun, and the chance of some scattered showers or thundershowers later in the afternoon, and temperatures around 70 degrees. As a diehard Yankee fan, I'm hoping for some late afternoon lightning, but mostly from Yankee batters, not from the weather.

Of Earthquakes, Hurricanes and Tornadoes

2008-05-12T15:35:00.005-04:00

It's been an active tornado season in the U.S. midwest so far this year. Yesterday, more tornadoes struck in Oklahoma, where at least 22 were killed. Earlier today, an earthquake of Richter Magnitude 7.8 struck near the city of Chengdu, in the Sichuan province of China (approximately 900 miles from Beijing). As I write this, at least 9000 have been confirmed dead. The death toll will likely rise much higher, as the last time a quake of 7.6 or higher struck central China was in 1976, and 240,000 people died. The area around today's quake is home to 10,000,000 people, and, in at least one community, some 80% of the buildings have been destroyed. School children have been reported buried in the rubble of their own schools, which collapsed on top of them.

Last week, the world watched as a strong hurricane, Cyclone Nargis (hurricanes are called "cyclones" in the Indian Ocean), swept through the country of Myanmar (formerly known as Burma), killing at least 100,000. Natural disasters make us aware that we live on a dynamic, ever changing planet. We must not forget that we can never control the forces of nature, but we can do our part to protect ourselves from the worst of them.

In the face of so many people killed, injured, or left homeless, it almost seems petty to carry on about the rising price of a gallon of gasoline. We may not like the military government of Myanmar, or the repressive regime in China, and we may have political differences with the voters in the midwestern U.S., but the individuals who live in those places, and who have been affected by these disasters are human beings, just like us, and they certainly deserve our sympathy and our aid.

You can help by visiting www.redcross.org and supporting the relief efforts of the American Red Cross, both at home and abroad. Thanks.

Finally, Some Much Needed Rain

2008-04-27T21:49:00.003-04:00

There hasn't been any measurable precipitation at Bradley International Airport since April 12th. That's 15 days without any rain. During that time, the grass has sprung up and turned green, and most trees have blossomed, throwing tons of pollen into the air. Allergy sufferers have been miserable for the past two weeks, without a cleansing rainfall to remove all that pollen from the air.

Time to rejoice! The next day or two should see some significant rainfall across the state. That should wash much of the pollen away, but it comes at a price. Temperatures will be a lot cooler than we've gotten used to over the past two weeks. The sun should return by mid-late week and temperatures will be a lot closer to normal.

Unfortunately, the rain will invigorate all those lawns, and that means we'll be spending more time behind the lawn mower in the next few weeks.

It's Allergy Season!

2008-04-21T23:35:00.002-04:00

Connecticut has a reputation as a state that brings out the worst in people's allergies. When my wife and I moved here in 1978, we found a whole new bunch of allergies we never had while living in New York.

As winter rolled into spring over the past month, I found myself wondering when the buds would start popping on the trees in my backyard, and when the grass would finally start to green up. This last week of sunny, warm weather seems to have pushed both the grass and the trees to move into full pollen mode. And while the new green on the branches and on the ground looks really nice against the blue sky of spring, it's becoming hard to see the colors through my increasingly itchy, watery eyes.

Nevertheless, it's a ritual I've lived through for many years now, and I know that in a few weeks (a few miserable weeks, I might add) all the trees will be in full bloom, and all the grass will have sprouted, and the allergy season will die down until late summer, when the ragweed blooms and the hay fever season begins.

Well, it's almost time to mow the lawn. Now where did I put that pollen mask?

96 Years Ago Today...

2008-04-15T15:57:00.002-04:00

April 15th for most people brings visions of long lines at the Post Office, as many of us scurry to get our tax returns posted before midnight tonight (did you put if off until now?). But for a lot of people, April 15th means more than just tax day.

96 years ago last night, at 11:40 PM, the most opulent passenger ship of its time, the R.M.S. Titanic, struck an iceberg and began taking on water. In less than three hours, at 2:20 AM, the largest moving object ever created by man (at that time) disappeared beneath the waters of the North Atlantic. The ship took over 1500 souls with it. Of 2207 people on board, only around 705 survived.

Weather played a significant factor in the Titanic disaster. It was a perfectly clear night, with no wind at all and no moon. The lack of moonlight made it difficult to see icebergs at a distance. In addition, the lack of wind meant that there were no waves at all. Under normal conditions, waves lapping up on the bottom of an iceberg make it easier to see. Thus the men in the crow's nest did not see the iceberg until it was too late, and at the speed the Titanic was moving, it wasn't possible to dodge the ice. The ship struck the iceberg a glancing blow.

Now we learn, according to yesterday's New York Times, that a new book shows that the builders of the Titanic may have used substandard iron and rivets in its construction, thus causing the bow plates to pop open when they struck the ice. If the iron plates and rivets had been stronger, the e damage might have been less and the ship might have stayed afloat longer, or even survived the collision entirely.

Historians have always been fascinated by the Titanic story and all its aspects. Now, on the 96th anniversary of the world's greatest peacetime maritime disaster, they have something new to think (and write) about.

The Ten Best Days of the Year

2008-04-10T15:46:00.003-04:00

It's a gorgeous day in Connecticut today. Warm (near 70 degrees F), hardly a cloud in the sky and a pleasant northwesterly breeze. In fact, I'm inclined to say that this might be one of "the 10 best days of the year." Local weathercasters have been using that term whenever the weather is nearly perfect. In fact, there may actually be more than 10 such days in a given calendar year. So how does one decide when such an award is justified? Easy. You realize it as soon as you step outside.

The air smells sweet, the birds are singing, the sun is out. The temperature is perfect. You'd like to spend the entire day outdoors, playing in the park with your dog, taking a nice long bicycle ride, or enjoying a walk with your significant other. The 10 Best Days of the Year can't be defined. You just know it. And believe me, for those of you who are not in central Connecticut today, this is definitely one of the 10 best days of the year.

Now if only theYankees would start hitting....

The Transition Season

2008-04-02T15:49:00.003-04:00

Spring has always been known as the "transition" season, where we go from the cold and snow of Winter, to the heat and humidity of Summer. Naturally, there are extremes to be experienced along the way. The last couple of days, along with the next few should highlight what that transition is all about.

Last night, here in Connecticut, between 9 PM and 11 PM, we experienced one of the more spectacular cold frontal passages that you might ever want to see. A narrow band of severe thunderstorms crossed the state during those hours, bringing and end to temperatures that had reached the 60s in many locations. Heavy rains, strong winds, and frequent, intense lightning strikes were the order of the evening as the front came through, producing some flash flooding in portions of the state.

This morning, the sun is shining, but it is nearly 20 degrees cooler than it was yesterday. The nice weather will last through a good part of Thursday before the next round of stormy weather moves in on Friday. Looks like plenty of rain for the northeast on Friday, that will last through much of the night before moving east on Saturday.

And then the sun will make an appearance by Saturday afternoon, and should be with us through the remainder of the weekend. New England weather has always had a reputation for changeability, and we are seeing some classic examples of that as we move through this first part of Spring.

It "feels" like Spring

2008-03-28T17:14:00.002-04:00

Now that CCSU students are back from Spring Break, and the baseball season begins on Sunday night, the unofficial signs of Spring are all around us. But does it "feel" like Spring? For many, that's a difficult question to answer because there's no way to define what Spring "feels" like.

For me, the temperature is not the deciding factor. We've had a few days in the past week where the temperature has reached the upper 50's. And there hasn't been any snow in Connecticut in awhile, so any "winter-like feel" is most assuredly gone.

So why does it feel like Spring? I guess it's because the crocuses are out, there are some patches of green on the front lawn, and the robins and rabbits are all around my backyard. For me, this is a great time of year. We come out of the long, gray, winter, and colors start to appear everywhere. And there's a fresh scent to the air in the early morning that hasn't been around since early September.

Lots of Rain, Lots of Snow

2008-03-09T12:34:00.002-04:00

Winter may be winding down, but don't tell that to the folks in central Ohio this afternoon. Many of them, in places such as Cincinnati and Columbus, are digging out from over 20 inches of snowfall yesterday. They were, unfortunately, on the cold side of this latest winter storm system that is now moving into the Gulf of Maine. With northerly winds and temperatures below freezing, the moisture that fell on the western side of the low pressure center was all in the form of snow.

Here in Connecticut and along the eastern seaboard, we were on the milder, eastern side of the storm, with southerly winds bringing mild air up from the south. As a result, all the precipitation that fell here yesterday was in the form of rain, and we had plenty of it. Bradley Airport officially checked in with 1.68 inches of rain, but some locations in the state received up to three inches of rainfall. On top of rain we had earlier in the week, and the fact that much of the ground in Connecticut is still frozen, most of that water has drained into rivers and streams, which are now going over their banks. Flood warnings are in effect for many central and northern Connecticut towns through Monday.

And just to make the skiers feel even worse, if this storm had been all snow instead of all rain, we would be digging out from 15-20 inches of the white stuff. I've had lots of people tell me that this has been a relatively snow-free winter in Connecticut. While that may be the feeling among many, that actually hasn't been the case. As of today, Bradley International Airport has had 47. 5 inches of snow so far this season. That's 8.2 inches more than normal for the winter thus far, and is almost four times as much snow as we had at this time a year ago. It may not be over yet. We've had a number of significant snowstorms in early April in years past, so I wouldn't put the snow shovels away just yet.

Spring is Finally Here

2008-03-02T22:03:00.003-05:00

The temperature outside this evening is in the mid-20s. There's still about 2 inches of snow in parts of my backyard. So how can I say that spring is here, especially when the calendar says that it doesn't officially begin until 1:48 AM EDT on March 20th? That's easy. The late Bart Giamatti, former President of Yale University wrote, in 1977,

"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone."
-Source: The Green Fields of the Mind (Yale Alumni Magazine, November 1977)

Today saw the first telecasts of Spring Training baseball games here in Connecticut. Both the Boston Red Sox, and my own beloved New York Yankees played exhibition games today that were shown live on local TV. For me, that represents the true end of winter, and the calendar be damned

In 1984, Washington Post columnist Thomas Boswell wrote that "time begins on Opening Day." For the Yankees, that's just 29 days from today.

Meyer's Law

2008-02-22T08:35:00.005-05:00

As a graduate student in the Atmospheric Sciences at SUNY Albany, we were taught many "rules of thumb" that had been developed over the years. Two that come to mind are "Henry's Rule" and "Rosenbloom's Law," both of which have to do with the movement of low pressure systems. Most of my NWS forecaster colleagues are well aware of these "laws."

However, there is one law that almost no one knows. It's called "Meyer's Law." It was actually developed by a contemporary of mine when I was in Albany. Mike Meyer (no relation to the guy who played Dr. Evil in the Austin Powers films) was an undergrad in the Meteorology program while I was a grad student. One day, he came to me and said that he had developed a rule that seemed to work well. He said that it seemed to him, that after a significant snowstorm, there wouldn't be another one until most, if not all, of the snow from the first storm had melted. Silly as it seems, over the years, Meyer's Law seems to work more often than not (although I admit there is no scientific proof that this is, in fact, the case).

So now that all the snow on the ground in Connecticut has melted, Meyer's Law says it's time for another snowstorm. And, as I write this entry, it's snowing outside, and we're expecting 4-8 inches of new snow by late tonight. Of course, lots of people think that by the time we get to late February, the chances of snow are decreasing. In fact, February and March have traditionally been the two snowiest months of the year in Connecticut. Most of the memorable blizzards of years past have occurred in February and March.

So while you're shoveling your walkway, or plowing out the driveway later today or tomorrow morning, remember that, according to Meyer's Law, there won't be another snowstorm until the snow from this one has melted away.

Snow and Ice and Water Everywhere

2008-02-13T16:28:00.002-05:00

As I write this, at 4:30 PM, we continue to get heavy rain across much of the state. Last night saw some 3 inches of snow fall in the Hartford area, followed by an extensive period of freezing rain, followed by a day of heavy rain that isn't over yet. The NWS says we've already had between 2 and 3 inches of rainfall today. Our rain gauge here on campus (which is not heated) has 1.60 inches of rain as of this moment, and there is still likely some snow and ice on the bucket which hasn't yet melted and flowed in.

Here in our building, on the Fifth floor, water is dripping through the ceilings from the roof above. Our copy/fax machine room is out of commission, as we've had to move both machines out of the way of dripping water. I won't be surprised to hear about some flat roofs in Connecticut giving way under the combined weight of all that snow, ice and rain.

On top of all that, temperatures tonight should drop below freezing, and that means a lot of puddles and ponded water is going to freeze up before morning. Should make for an adventurous morning commute tomorrow on many interior Connecticut roadways. Drive carefully, everyone.

Just one more thing. It looks like we're in for another heavy rain storm late Saturday and into Sunday. And this cold, stormy pattern shows no sign of letting up for at least the next week or so.

Don't Let the Sunshine Fool You

2008-02-12T09:21:00.000-05:00

The sun is shining in Connecticut this morning, but gloom and doom dominate the forecast. And there's no need to overhype the storm that's on its way. Snow should break out across the state during the late afternoon hours, and, with plenty of cold air embedded in the lower atmosphere, it will take a while to change the snow over to an even messier mix of sleet and freezing rain overnight.

The evening rush won't be that bad, as there won't be that much snow on the ground yet, but tomorrow morning's commute will be tough for those of us not along the immediate shoreline. Freezing rain will persist for a while before temperatures finally push up above freezing, and a steady, often heavy rain falls tomorrow. With a few inches of snow, then ice, then rain, the possibility of urban and poor drainage flooding is very real.

And yet, that sunshine is still right there outside my window. I've never seen such changeable weather anywhere else, except maybe in those classic Warner Bros. cartoons. I'm sure some of you know what I'm talking about.

The flu has arrived at my house

2008-02-09T18:23:00.001-05:00

It's flu season around much of the United States. As I was watching CNN's coverage of presidential primaries and caucuses this afternoon, a weather cut-in noted that only Florida and Maine have managed to avoid widespread outbreaks of the flu so far this year. The report also noted that this year's flu vaccine is only effective against two of the three strains seen in the U.S. this season. Needless to say, neither my wife nor myself got a flu shot this year, and, of course, my wife seems to have come down with the dreaded influenza virus. Aches, pains, congestion and a 103 fever have thrown her for a loop. And unless I'm unusually lucky, I'll probably come down with it sooner rather than later (something to look forward to).

It would be interesting to see how many of the flu cases being reported are among people who DID take the flu shot this year. In any event, we are stuck indoors on this cold and snowy evening, and, with temperatures struggling to reach the low 30s Sunday and Monday, it's probably just as well.

Is that the Sun I see?

2008-02-07T20:47:00.000-05:00

It seems as if we haven't seen any sunshine for at least the last five days or so. It's been one storm system after another, passing across Connecticut bringing us rain, sleet, freezing rain--what The Weather Channel likes to call a "wintry mix."

We may actually get a short-lived break from the dreary weather on Friday afternoon. There might be a bit of sunshine, and clear skies on Friday night before another round of clouds and wintry precipitation moves in for later Saturday and into a bit of Sunday as well. Climatologically speaking, we should now be coming out of the depths of winter as the days grow longer and the temperatures begin their slow climb. But, as I've pointed out before, there's still plenty of winter to get through before we can dream of days on the beach.

The biggest question plaguing us these days, however, is this...who's not telling the truth, Roger Clemens, or his former trainer, Brian McNamee? We report, you decide. Meanwhile, there's just seven days until Spring Training begins. Now for me, that's when winter really ends.

Of Winter Weather and Sweeps Month

2008-02-05T16:17:00.000-05:00

February, for those of you who are unfamiliar with the workings of TV ratings, is sweeps month. Sweeps periods occur in February, May and November of each year. During those months, national networks, as well as local TV stations closely monitor viewership to determine which programs (and local newscasts) people are watching. From that data, the networks determine which shows get renewed or cancelled, and the local stations determine how much they can charge for advertising revenue, based on viewership.

Local TV stations often put interesting news stories or features on during sweeps months, which they promote during prime time programming. You may notice a trend toward stories that have a "must watch" theme. And, just in time for the weather departments, winter is poised to return to the region. That means that local weathercasters around the northeast will promote long range forecasts of potential winter weather with a bit more urgency.

The latest round of National Weather Service computer forecasts is indicating that a significant blast of Arctic air will be moving into the region by Sunday, and should stick around for a few days. That means that daytime temperatures will likely only reach the mid-20's on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, with overnight lows in the upper single digits or low 10's. On top of all that, the longer range forecasts are pointing to a potential winter storm for the 19th of the month. Bear in mind, however, that forecasts that far in advance often change drastically by the time that day actually rolls around, so take those inevitable gloom and doom forecasts with a healthy grain of salt for the time being.

Nobody's Perfect

2008-02-04T09:21:00.000-05:00

What a remarkable finish to last night's Superbowl XLII (and when are we going to stop numbering these Superbowls? I mean, would anyone actually be able to remember who won World Series LXVIII if baseball were using the same idiotic numbering scheme?) As a born and raised New Yorker, I couldn't be happier for the Giants this morning, especially after all those predictions of a 41-17 Patriots blowout. Congratulations to Big Blue this morning.

I wish we could catch a weather break, but this doesn't look like the week to get it. The stormy weather pattern looks like it will persist through much of this week. We might see some sunshine on Thursday, but for the most part, lots of clouds and precipitation, and most of it appears as if it will be rain rather than snow. And for those of you who think that winter might be over by now, remember that February and March are, climatologically speaking, the two snowiest months of the year.

Groundhog Day!!

2008-02-02T08:24:00.001-05:00

Good morning! Today is Groundhog Day, as most of you already know. The legend of the weatherwise woodchuck dates back to the early 1840's in Morgantown, PA. According to the story, when the groundhog comes out of its burrow on Candelmas Day (February 2nd), if it sees its shadow, then it will duck back underground, and winter will continue for six more weeks. If it's cloudy, and there's no shadow, then the groundhog will stay out, and Spring will arrive early.

The most famous of all groundhogs is, of course, Punxsutawney Phil, made even more famous by the 1993 Bill Murray film, "Groundhog Day!" There are plenty of other local groundhogs around the country that make similar predictions. Groundhog Day fans claim an accuracy rate of up to 90%, but the National Climatic Data Center, along with a study of 13 cities done in Canada, both agree that the accuracy rate is closer to 39%.

So, will Winter end early this year? Probably not, if you go by the groundhog prediction, as it is sunny this morning across the northeast, so Phil will almost assuredly see his shadow. So even if the weather remains winterlike for the next few weeks, we can at least enjoy the 45-50 degree temperatures that are on tap for today in Connecticut.

Oh, and one more thing....GO BIG BLUE!!!

What an Unwinterlike Winter in Connecticut

2008-02-01T15:25:00.000-05:00

As I post this, it's raining heavily here in central Connecticut. We've had over 25 inches of snow so far this winter, but most of that snow fell in the early days of December along with one storm in January that was forecast to bring a foot or so, but only produced around six inches. There won't be much snow left on the ground after today, as the rain is washing most of what has been there away.

It's been an unusual winter in that, while the overall weather pattern has been stormy, the general storm track has been to our west. Only a few strong secondary storms have formed off the eastern seaboard, and, for the most part, they've been too far south or east to bring us the heavy snow. Outlooks for next few weeks seem to continue the pattern of strong storm systems moving northeast, but west of Connecticut, leaving us on the warm side, and bringing lots of rain, instead of lots of snow.

But don't forget that the atmosphere has a way of balancing things out. While we've been getting lots of rain around here, locations in the Midwest, such as Chicago have been seeing a lot of snow over the past few weeks. As I'm not a skier, I say, "let them keep it."

A Book Worth Reading

2008-02-01T13:36:00.000-05:00

I just finished reading "Storm World," by Chris Mooney (Harcourt, Inc, 2007). It's a look into the raging debate on the potential effect of global warming on hurricane intensity. I found it particularly interesting, as I know many of the main characters in the book, and have had the opportunity to hear them speak at conferences and symposia.

Mooney begins by looking at the last few hurricane seasons, and how hurricane research has become far more popular among meteorologists since the 2005 season, which featured Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. He explores the beginnings of the idea that a warmer ocean would produce stronger hurricanes, and he spends a lot of time with Dr. Bill Gray, of Colorado State University, one of the country's foremost hurricane forecasters, and a global warming skeptic.
He also spends a great deal of time looking into the politics behind NOAA's official position that hurricane intensity increases are the result of a natural climatic cycle (the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) rather than any global warming contribution.

At first, it's hard to tell which side of the climate argument Mooney is on, but by book's end, he makes it clear that he is on the side of researchers such as Kerry Emanuel of MIT, and Kevin Trenberth of NCAR, who have argued that climate models indicate that a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could lead to a half-category increase (on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale) in hurricane strength.

I must admit that Mooney makes convincing arguments for the work of Emanuel, Trenberth and others, and presents them with very little bias. If you are wavering on whether global warming might be linked to weather events now and in the future, I suggest you give this book a read.